Sydney, Feb 2, 2026, 17:23 AEDT — Market closed
National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX) slipped 0.9% to close at A$42.96 on Monday amid a broader slide in Australian shares. Miners and gold stocks led the downturn, hit hard by a steep drop in precious metals. The S&P/ASX 200 dropped roughly 1%, finishing at 8,779 points.
The slide puts NAB at risk as Tuesday’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting nears, with global market volatility ramping up. Derivatives price in about a 75% chance the RBA hikes rates by 25 basis points, pushing them to 3.85%. This week is packed: central bank meetings, key earnings reports, and U.S. payrolls due Friday.
Higher rates can boost banks’ net interest margin — the difference between earnings on loans and costs for deposits and wholesale funding. But there’s a catch: credit growth tends to slow, and if policy tightens amid fragile conditions, repayment challenges rise.
The bigger issue was sentiment. Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management, described the selloff as a “classic de-leveraging / liquidity squeeze,” with investors offloading whatever assets they could to generate cash. Reuters
The Australian dollar slipped to a one-week low before finding some footing, dragged down by weakness in metals and uncertainty over the U.S. Fed leadership change. Joseph Capurso, Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s head of forex, noted that rising volatility leaves AUD/USD vulnerable to steep declines.
NAB holders will be eyeing the bank’s first-quarter trading update set for Feb. 18. These quarterly reports are key for investors to assess loan demand, track expenses, and see if credit quality remains stable amid changing funding and deposit costs.
The setup cuts both ways. A hike paired with stronger guidance might push yields higher and improve pricing on new loans, but it also zeroes in on arrears — those late payments that risk turning into losses.
A decision to hold would catch many off guard. It could weigh on the currency, yet it might also relieve pressure on borrowers and temper the market’s more aggressive rate expectations.
NAB moves within a tight big-bank pack that includes Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ. The sector usually shifts as one on rate changes—until something specific to one bank shakes things up.
The RBA is set to reveal the results of its Feb. 2–3 meeting at 2:30 p.m. AEDT Tuesday, with the governor scheduled for a media briefing an hour later at 3:30 p.m. Attention then shifts to NAB’s Feb. 18 update for fresh insight into margins and credit.
