National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) is back in the spotlight on 18 December 2025 as investors weigh a shifting interest-rate narrative, new mortgage pricing moves across the sector, and a fresh set of capital markets updates—all while analysts remain divided on where the stock goes next.
NAB shares were trading around A$41.81 on Thursday, with a day range of A$41.71 to A$42.08 and a 52‑week range of A$31.13 to A$45.25. The bank’s market capitalisation was listed at about A$127.69 billion. Investing
The bigger story isn’t a single headline—it’s the collision of rate expectations, bank funding costs, and valuation debate around Australia’s major banks heading into 2026.
NAB stock in focus: why investors are watching rates again
After multiple rate cuts earlier in 2025, markets and economists have turned more cautious in recent weeks as inflation proved stickier than expected. NAB’s own explainer on the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision notes the official cash rate remained at 3.60% in December 2025. NAB
But the forward-looking conversation is changing. In Australia’s mid-year budget update coverage, Reuters reported the government lifted its inflation forecast and noted that two major banks—NAB and Commonwealth Bank—were now expecting the RBA to raise rates in February 2026, with NAB also calling for a second hike in May. Reuters
That matters for bank stocks because higher rates can support margins in theory, but they can also pressure borrowers, slow credit growth, and push bad debts higher—especially if household budgets are already stretched.
Mortgage pricing move: NAB lifts fixed home loan rates
One of the most tangible “real economy” signals this week has been repricing in fixed-rate mortgages.
Mortgage Professional Australia reported NAB lifted fixed rates and highlighted a new headline offer: 5.39% p.a. (comparison rate 6.16% p.a.) for certain owner‑occupier borrowers on two‑year fixed loans with at least a 20% deposit (principal-and-interest repayments). Mortgage Professional
Savings.com.au also detailed the move, reporting NAB raised fixed rates (up to 0.20% in some cases) and said NAB economists were forecasting a 0.25% cash rate rise in February followed by another 0.25% increase in May, which would take the cash rate to 4.10% if that path played out. Savings
Why this matters for NAB stock:
- Pricing power vs competition: Repricing can protect margins if funding costs rise, but aggressive competition can cap how much banks can pass on.
- Credit quality: Higher borrowing costs (or expectations of them) can hit consumer sentiment and mortgage stress metrics.
- Volume outlook: If borrowers delay property decisions, housing credit growth may cool—offsetting margin benefits.
Capital markets update: NAB Capital Notes distribution details released
While NAB’s ordinary shares drive the headline “stock” conversation, income-focused investors also watch the bank’s hybrid securities for signals on funding and pricing.
NAB released new distribution details for its listed Capital Notes series (quarterly distributions payable in March 2026):
- NAB Capital Notes 6 (ASX: NABPI): distribution rate 4.8143% p.a., cash amount A$1.1871 per note, payable 17 March 2026, with a record date of 5 March 2026. Company Announcements
- NAB Capital Notes 7 (ASX: NABPJ): distribution rate 4.5693% p.a., cash amount A$1.1267 per note, payable 17 March 2026, with a record date of 5 March 2026. Company Announcements
These notices don’t directly change the ordinary share story, but they reinforce a theme investors are tracking closely: the cost of money. Distribution mechanics are linked to bank bill benchmarks and margins, so they move with market rates and funding conditions.
Corporate footprint headline: NAB renews a landmark Melbourne lease
Away from rates and forecasts, NAB also featured in one of Australia’s biggest office leasing headlines of the year.
Mirvac announced on 18 December that NAB renewed its lease at 700 Bourke Street, Melbourne, committing to the building until 2038. Mirvac said the agreement covers the entire building (about 63,000 sqm) and described it as the single largest leasing transaction in the Australian office market in 2025. Mirvac
For equity investors, this is less about immediate earnings and more about long-run operating footprint decisions—particularly as large employers balance hybrid work, cost control, and space utilisation.
NAB fundamentals: what the bank says it’s focused on in FY26
The most recent full-year investor materials provide a useful baseline for what management wants investors to watch next.
In its FY25 investor presentation, NAB highlighted “key areas of focus in FY26,” including execution of strategy to lift customer outcomes, ongoing technology modernisation (including AI), disciplined cost management, and maintaining prudent balance sheet settings—plus a specific operational milestone: completing migration of the Citi Consumer Business to a new platform by December 2025. NAB
The same materials also provide a snapshot of key metrics, including cash earnings of A$7,091 million (FY25) and a CET1 (APRA) ratio of 11.70%, alongside other balance-sheet and portfolio indicators. NAB
Investors typically translate these disclosures into three recurring questions for NAB stock:
- Can NAB defend margins if competition stays intense in mortgages and business lending?
- Does cost control improve without disrupting service and growth initiatives?
- Do credit losses stay contained if rates move higher again?
NAB stock forecast: where analysts see the share price heading
Forecasts are not facts, but they shape sentiment—especially when a stock is trading near the upper end of its multi-month range.
Investing.com consensus: “Sell,” with a target below the current price
Investing.com’s consensus snapshot shows an average 12‑month price target of A$37.99071 (high A$46.31, low A$29), with an overall analyst rating listed as “Sell” and downside potential of roughly -9.13% versus the quoted price at the time of publishing. Investing
It also notes a technical signal of “Strong Buy” based on moving averages and other indicators—illustrating how fundamental analyst targets and technical signals can point in opposite directions. Investing
TipRanks: target around A$39, with more “Hold” than “Buy”
TipRanks’ listing shows NAB’s average analyst price target around A$39.04 and a recent mix that includes more Hold ratings than Buy ratings (with Sell ratings also present). TipRanks
What the spread implies
Across platforms, the broad message is consistent:
- There’s no single “Street view”—targets span a wide range.
- Many published consensus targets sit below where NAB traded on 18 December.
- The debate is often less about whether NAB is a “good bank,” and more about whether the current valuation already prices in resilient earnings and dividends.
Key dates: what could move NAB shares next
For investors watching near-term catalysts, NAB’s own financial calendar flags several dates that commonly influence bank share prices:
- 18 February 2026: First Quarter Trading Update
- 4 May 2026: Half Year Results Announcement
- 7 May 2026: Ex‑dividend date for interim dividend (with record date and payment dates following) NAB
Separately, macro catalysts—including inflation prints and RBA meetings—remain front and centre given the renewed talk of potential tightening in early 2026. Reuters
Risks and opportunities for NAB investors heading into 2026
NAB’s share price outlook over the next 6–12 months is likely to hinge on a handful of interlocking variables:
Opportunities
- Margin resilience: If NAB can protect margins while competitors chase volume, earnings may prove sturdier than skeptics expect.
- Business banking leverage: NAB’s positioning in business banking can be a differentiator when business credit demand is healthy.
- Execution and simplification: Delivery against technology modernisation and platform milestones can reduce long-term cost-to-serve. NAB
Risks
- Rate volatility: A faster-than-expected move back to hiking could lift funding costs and pressure borrower health. Reuters
- Mortgage competition: Even with higher rates, intense competition can compress spreads.
- Credit impairment cycle: If unemployment rises or household stress increases, loan losses can climb—historically a key driver of bank stock de-ratings.
Bottom line: NAB stock on 18 December 2025
On 18 December 2025, NAB stock is being pulled between two strong forces:
- Macro uncertainty is rising again as inflation forecasts reset and rate-hike expectations return to the conversation. Reuters
- Valuation and forecast debate remains lively, with multiple analyst consensus snapshots pointing to targets below the current trading price. Investing
Meanwhile, NAB is still executing on its FY26 priorities—cost discipline, technology modernisation, and major platform work—while managing the day-to-day realities of mortgage pricing, funding markets, and consumer confidence. NAB
