SYDNEY, Jan 12, 2026, 17:40 AEDT — The market has closed for the day.
- Shares of National Australia Bank rose 1.46% to close at A$41.62 on Monday.
- New household spending figures have reignited speculation that the RBA could hike rates again, as markets eye the February 3 meeting.
- NAB is set to release its first-quarter trading update on Feb. 18.
Shares of National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX) climbed on Monday following data that revealed Australian households continued spending through November, fueling speculation about interest rate moves. The stock finished up 1.46% at A$41.62, swinging between A$40.89 and A$41.87 during the session. 1
Australian household spending climbed 1.0% in November to A$79.4 billion, after a revised 1.4% rise in October, government figures revealed. The annual growth rate accelerated to 6.3%. “The undeniable strength in household consumption will likely set the alarm bells off for the RBA,” said Abhijit Surya, senior APAC economist at Capital Economics. Interest-rate swaps — derivatives reflecting policy-rate bets — currently price in a 25% chance of a hike in February and roughly 76% for May. 2
That’s crucial for banks since rate expectations fuel discussions around loan growth, margins, and credit stress—often simultaneously. While a rising cash rate can boost earnings initially, it risks hurting them down the line if borrowers falter.
The Reserve Bank of Australia currently holds its cash rate target at 3.60%. The next rate announcement is set for 2:30 p.m. AEDT on Feb. 3, while the upcoming inflation report is due Jan. 28. 3
NAB released a brief corporate update Monday, unveiling a fresh marketing campaign titled “Your Partner for Every Stage”. Chief Marketing Officer Natalie Lockwood described the effort as “a commitment to customers.” 4
The real tug-of-war happens beyond ad spend. The major lenders — NAB, Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ — usually move in sync with changes in the rate curve, particularly when data shows households are still spending.
Tuesday’s session could reveal if Monday’s move sticks after the initial macro jitters die down. Traders are focusing on pricing for February and May, alongside the ongoing direction of bond yields.
But rising rates cut both ways. They can boost net interest margins — the difference between what banks make on loans versus what they pay on deposits — yet they also increase the chance of bad debts if borrowers’ incomes don’t keep pace with higher repayments.
NAB’s upcoming trigger is the first-quarter trading update set for Feb. 18. Investors will watch for mortgage growth trends, deposit competition, and any early credit stress signals. 5
