Taipei, Jan 20, 2026, 09:15 (GMT+8) — Regular session
- Minutes after the open, shares plunged 10%, hitting the daily limit.
- Nanya signaled further DRAM price increases in Q1 following a strong rebound in Q4.
- After the earnings call, a U.S. bank lowered its EPS forecast for 2026 but remained optimistic about DDR4 supply shortages.
Taiwan DRAM producer Nanya Technology Corp (2408.TW) opened Tuesday at its limit-down price of T$247.50, hitting the market’s 10% daily fall cap and lingering there with roughly 5,800 lots offered for sale. The TAIEX benchmark dipped 0.6%. Despite the sharp decline, Nanya’s stock remains up around 15% over the last five sessions. (鉅亨網)
The sell-off followed Nanya’s report of a fourth-quarter net profit hitting T$11.083 billion, with a gross margin of 49%. This was fueled by a surge of over 30% in average selling prices and shipments climbing between 11% and 13%. DRAM — dynamic random access memory used in servers, PCs, and phones — remains the main profit driver. General manager Pei-Ing Lee told investors that DRAM prices are expected to keep rising in the first quarter, although the pace will likely slow compared to the sharp jump seen last quarter. (UDN Money)
Nanya forecasted that average selling prices, or ASP, may climb by at least 10% in Q1, with a potential surge exceeding 20% if supply remains tight. The company reported net cash rising to T$38.5 billion by the end of the year and signaled a reduced dividend payout ratio in 2026 as it reserves cash for growth. (Quartr)
A U.S. investment bank has lowered its 2026 earnings-per-share forecast to T$29.9 from T$55.7 following the call, Taiwan’s Economic Daily News reported. However, it raised its 2027 estimate. The note maintained a bullish view, citing ongoing DDR4 shortages—an older DRAM type—that could persist into next year. It also highlighted advancements in wafer-on-wafer (WoW) stacking and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), used in AI accelerators. (UDN Money)
Lee is focusing on supply constraints. He noted that industry capacity expansions appear limited through mid-2027 and called the full-year outlook “not bad,” though he flagged a typical seasonal downturn later in 2026. Nanya is aiming for board approval on about T$50 billion in capital expenditures for 2026 and plans to begin outfitting a new plant in 2027, with production ramping up in 2028. (Yahoo News)
Supply-side speculation is heating up beyond the company itself. U.S. rival Micron announced a $1.8 billion acquisition of Powerchip Semiconductor’s P5 facility in Tongluo. The move will expand cleanroom capacity and target higher DRAM wafer production starting in the second half of 2027. (Reuters)
Nanya doesn’t expect the deal to shake up pricing anytime soon. Lee noted that Micron and Powerchip will need a while to acquire tools and adjust their processes. He predicts minimal impact on the memory market this year and into the first half of next year. (Yahoo Finance)
Tuesday’s limit-down drop highlights just how quickly sentiment can flip in a crowded trade. If contract prices slide sooner than expected or customers resist allocations, Nanya’s earnings leverage works against it. Large expenditures and a reduced dividend might also try investors’ patience.
Traders are watching DRAM spot and contract prices closely, while also waiting to see if buying activity picks up once the stock breaks free from the limit-down band.
Nanya’s first-quarter earnings report, scheduled for April 14, is the next significant milestone. (Marketscreener)
