As of 10:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025, the Nasdaq has been chopping around the flatline—a sign the market is still trying to “price” a rare combination of fresh macro data, renewed AI-trade scrutiny, and shifting expectations for 2026 rate cuts. One major headline is already reshaping how traders think about the post-close session: Nasdaq has filed to expand weekday trading to 23 hours, accelerating Wall Street’s push toward near round-the-clock equities trading. [1]
But the near-term catalyst for the Nasdaq’s next move—into the close and especially after the bell—remains the data dump: the long-delayed October and November jobs figures, plus flat retail sales and a fresh read on business activity that points to slowing growth and renewed price pressures. [2]
Below is what matters most for Nasdaq investors and after-hours traders today, what’s on deck after the closing bell, and why the market’s focus keeps snapping back to AI and interest rates.
Nasdaq at 10:30 a.m. ET: A “flat tape” with big cross-currents underneath
In mid-morning trading, major U.S. indexes pulled back modestly after the delayed jobs report, with the Nasdaq recently described as down about 0.2% in Investopedia’s 10:20 a.m. update. [3]
The key takeaway for Nasdaq watchers isn’t the small move—it’s the internal tug-of-war:
- Rates-sensitive growth and tech are balancing improving “soft-landing” hopes (slowing—but not collapsing—employment) against renewed worries about valuations and AI capex spending. [4]
- Energy’s drop (driven by sliding oil) is pulling on the broader tape, while some megacap tech names attempt to stabilize after last week’s AI-driven selloff. [5]
That’s the setup heading into the final hours of trading: the Nasdaq can still swing meaningfully today if rates move, if AI bellwethers break support (or bounce), or if investors reframe what the data implies about the Fed’s next steps.
The macro driver: delayed jobs data and what it means for the Fed (and Nasdaq valuations)
The numbers that hit this morning
The long-delayed labor-market release showed:
- November payrolls: +64,000 (above expectations cited in coverage)
- October payrolls: -105,000
- Unemployment rate: 4.6%, described as the highest since July 2021 in Investopedia’s live update [6]
Reuters noted an important detail for context: the unemployment rate comes from household data that was not collected in October due to the shutdown, adding noise to comparisons and trendlines. [7]
Why Nasdaq traders care
For the Nasdaq, jobs data matters less as “good vs. bad” and more as what it does to discount rates:
- Softer labor conditions can support the idea that the Fed can keep cutting in 2026—helpful for growth-stock multiples.
- But stronger payrolls (even with a higher unemployment rate) can keep the Fed cautious, limiting how quickly rates fall—and keeping pressure on richly valued AI and software names. [8]
What the futures market is saying today
Reuters reported that immediately after the report, fed funds futures implied the odds of a January rate cut briefly rose, while the market still leaned heavily toward a pause. Specifically, futures priced a 31% chance of a cut right after the report (vs. 22% just before), later around 27%, with pause odds ~73%. [9]
Crucially for forward-looking Nasdaq narratives, Reuters added that rate futures still implied about 57 bps of easing in 2026 (roughly two quarter-point cuts), with the first likely move seen around June (probability cited at 83%). [10]
The second macro shoe: retail sales and “growth vs. inflation” tension
Alongside the labor data, markets also absorbed signs that the consumer may be cooling at the margin:
- Retail sales were unexpectedly flat for October (delayed by the shutdown), instead of rising modestly. [11]
- Investopedia also cited business inventories as firmer than expected in the same morning update. [12]
For Nasdaq, flat retail sales can cut two ways: it can reinforce the “rates come down” story, but it can also raise concerns about demand as 2026 begins—especially for discretionary and ad-driven tech.
Business activity is slowing—and price pressures are resurfacing
One reason the Nasdaq’s rebound attempts have been fragile: the market is getting mixed signals on inflation.
Reuters reported that S&P Global’s preliminary (“flash”) PMI data showed:
- Composite PMI slipping to 53.0 in December from 54.2 in November
- Services at 52.9 (six-month low), manufacturing at 51.8 (lowest since July)
- Input prices jumping to the highest level in roughly three years, driven by service-sector costs [13]
That combination—slowing growth + rising prices—is not what high-multiple Nasdaq leadership wants to see, because it risks keeping the Fed cautious even if growth cools.
AI is still the Nasdaq’s center of gravity—and today’s tape reflects that
Even on a day dominated by macro headlines, Nasdaq direction continues to hinge on whether investors view the recent AI selloff as:
- a healthy reset, or
- the start of a broader “valuation and capex payback” repricing.
Investopedia’s premarket briefing highlighted that Oracle and Broadcom were among the names trying to stabilize after sharp post-earnings declines, with investor anxiety focused on “AI bubble” concerns and the financing demands of the buildout. [14]
In its 10:20 a.m. update, Investopedia noted that Broadcom and Oracle had fallen roughly 18% and 17% over the prior three sessions (as of Monday’s close context), and were mixed Tuesday morning. [15]
The practical takeaway for “after the bell” Nasdaq positioning: expect amplified after-hours sensitivity in AI and mega-cap tech to any incremental headlines on capex, margins, and demand—even if the day’s scheduled catalysts come from elsewhere.
After the bell today: the earnings catalysts that can move rates, sentiment, and risk appetite
When people say “after the bell,” Nasdaq traders often think “mega-cap tech earnings.” That’s not the story tonight.
Instead, the most watched after-close prints are rates- and housing-sensitive—and they can still matter to the Nasdaq because they influence the same things tech investors care about: yields, credit conditions, and forward demand.
Lennar reports after the close (and the bond market will care)
Lennar is scheduled to release results after the market closes today (Dec. 16), with a conference call on Dec. 17 at 11:00 a.m. ET, per the company. [16]
Even though Lennar is not a Nasdaq heavyweight by index construction, it can affect Nasdaq sentiment in two ways:
- Mortgage-rate sensitivity: Guidance on affordability, incentives (like rate buydowns), and order trends feeds into the market’s view of whether higher-for-longer rates are biting. [17]
- Macro read-through: Housing has become a bellwether for the broader “soft landing vs. slowdown” debate that’s driving tech multiples. [18]
Worthington Enterprises also reports after the close
Worthington Enterprises will release fiscal second quarter results after the market closes on Dec. 16, and holds its earnings call Dec. 17 at 8:30 a.m. ET, according to its investor relations release. [19]
This is a “real economy” print—manufacturing, pricing, end-demand—that can matter today because investors are already digesting PMI evidence of slowing growth and rising cost pressure. [20]
The real after-hours headline: Nasdaq’s 23-hour trading filing and what it means for the “after the bell” playbook
If you publish one Nasdaq story today and ignore the market-structure news, you’re missing a major narrative shift.
Reuters reports that nearly nonstop weekday trading is getting closer—and not everyone is excited about it.
What’s happening
- Nasdaq filed paperwork to extend trading to 23 hours a day on weekdays, part of the industry’s move toward near 24/5 equities trading. [21]
- Reuters also described a broader Nasdaq plan under which trading would run in two main sessions, including a proposed “night session,” as the industry gears up for expanded access beginning in the second half of 2026. [22]
Why banks are pushing back
Large banks have raised concerns about:
- costs and operational risk,
- investor protections and best execution,
- thin overnight liquidity, wider spreads, and higher volatility,
- and whether demand will justify the investment. [23]
Reuters also cited a BlackRock view that overnight sessions can be less liquid, resulting in wider bid-ask spreads, more volatility, and higher trading costs. [24]
A key forecast investors should note
According to Reuters, a DTCC and Ernst & Young projection estimated 1%–10% of total U.S. equity volume could trade during extended hours by 2028. [25]
What this means for “Nasdaq after the bell” today: even before any new schedule takes effect, the market is being conditioned to treat after-hours as a more important battleground—where news hits, liquidity can be thinner, and price discovery can be sharper (or messier) than traders expect.
Where strategists see markets headed next: AI stays central, but risks are rising
A Reuters factbox on 2026 outlooks underscores the dominant view on Wall Street: AI remains a core allocation theme, even as the market wrestles with valuation and policy risk. [26]
Among the notable forecasts and themes cited:
- Analysts broadly expect AI to remain central in 2026 strategies, supported by continued economic expansion and Fed easing. [27]
- One benchmark forecast highlighted in the Reuters report: the S&P 500 is projected to rise nearly 12% to around 7,490 by end-2026 (a proxy for “risk-on” expectations that often spill into the Nasdaq). [28]
- At the same time, strategists flag risks that matter even more to the Nasdaq than to the broader market: high valuations, inflation surprises, and trade tensions. [29]
What to watch into the close and after the bell: a Nasdaq-focused checklist
Here’s the practical “after the bell” roadmap for today’s Nasdaq session:
1) Rates and the Fed narrative
- Any late-day moves in yields or rate-cut pricing after the jobs and retail data will likely show up first in Nasdaq leadership stocks. [30]
2) AI bellwethers and “capex payback” anxiety
- Watch how AI infrastructure names trade into the close—especially those trying to stabilize after last week’s selloff (Oracle/Broadcom coverage has kept this theme front and center). [31]
3) Tonight’s earnings: housing and industry as macro signals
- Lennar after the close: pay attention to margins, incentives, order momentum, and 2026 commentary. [32]
- Worthington after the close: listen for demand and pricing signals that align—or clash—with PMI warnings. [33]
4) The next big Nasdaq catalyst is already on the calendar (tomorrow)
Investopedia noted that Micron is set to report after the market closes Wednesday, and options pricing implies traders expect a swing of roughly 9% by week’s end—important because Micron is tightly linked to AI hardware demand. [34]
Bottom line
Today’s Nasdaq story isn’t just “up or down.” It’s about how markets digest delayed economic reality—jobs, retail spending, and PMIs—while simultaneously recalibrating what AI is worth in a world where:
- growth is slowing (but not collapsing),
- inflation pressure is still present,
- the Fed looks cautious near-term but still priced to ease in 2026, and
- the definition of “after-hours” is evolving as Nasdaq pushes toward 23-hour weekday trading. [35]
After the bell tonight, the market’s first reaction function will likely run through earnings guidance (Lennar, Worthington) and rate expectations—then flow straight back into Nasdaq’s AI-heavy leadership. [36]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.investopedia.com, 2. www.investopedia.com, 3. www.investopedia.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.investopedia.com, 6. www.investopedia.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.investopedia.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. investors.lennar.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. ir.worthingtonenterprises.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.investopedia.com, 32. investors.lennar.com, 33. ir.worthingtonenterprises.com, 34. www.investopedia.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. investors.lennar.com
