Mumbai, 1 December 2025 — Natco Pharma Limited (NSE: NATCOPHARM, BSE: 524816) is back in the spotlight. The stock is seeing heavy trading, fresh institutional interest and a sharp intraday bounce, even as investors digest softer Q2 FY26 earnings, a recent USFDA inspection in Chennai and a large acquisition in South Africa.
Natco Pharma share price today: sharp bounce with heavy volumes
As of around 11:05 am IST on 1 December 2025, Natco Pharma was quoted near ₹921 on the NSE, up almost 5% for the day. The stock has traded in a day range of ₹880–923, against a 52‑week band of ₹726.80–1,505, with volume close to 2.95 million shares, according to exchange data compiled by Moneycontrol. Moneycontrol
A detailed trade analysis by MarketsMojo shows why Natco is dominating screens today: on 1 December the counter saw about 15.7 lakh shares change hands with a traded value of roughly ₹143.6 crore. The stock opened near ₹885, hit an intraday high of ₹923 and was last seen around ₹920 at 09:45 am, outpacing both the pharma sector and the Sensex on the day. Markets Mojo
This flurry of activity comes after a volatile fortnight marked by earnings, regulatory news and deal headlines.
Q2 FY26 results: revenue largely flat, profit down on higher costs
Natco reported its Q2 FY26 (quarter ended 30 September 2025) numbers in mid‑November.
- Revenue from operations: about ₹1,363 crore, marginally lower than ₹1,371.1 crore in Q2 FY25. Business Standard
- Total income (including other income): around ₹1,463 crore, up from roughly ₹1,435 crore a year earlier. InvestyWise
- Net profit (PAT):₹517.9 crore, down roughly 23–24% year‑on‑year from about ₹676.5 crore. Business Standard
- Operating profitability: EBITDA fell by around 28% YoY, with margins compressing from an unusually high ~59% in Q2 FY25 to roughly 42–43% in Q2 FY26 as costs normalised. Moneycontrol Images
Broker and company commentary attribute the profit drop mainly to:
- The fading windfall from generic Revlimid (lenalidomide) in the US, which had driven super‑normal margins in earlier quarters.
- Higher R&D, bio‑equivalence (BE) study and clinical trial expenses, as Natco invests in its next wave of complex generics. Way2Wealth
- Certain one‑time provisions and employee‑related costs booked in the quarter. Way2Wealth
Management has been blunt: they see Q2 FY26 as the last “meaningful” quarter for Revlimid profits. From Q3 onward, intense competition is expected to sharply reduce volumes and profit share, and the company is not budgeting any significant Revlimid revenue for H2 FY26. Way2Wealth
Despite that, Natco has maintained full‑year FY26 PAT guidance at about ₹13 billion, implying a steep drop in earnings in the second half versus the Revlimid‑boosted first half. ICICI Securities estimates H2 FY26 profitability at only ₹2.75–3.0 billion, compared with about ₹10 billion in H1. Moneycontrol Images
Balance sheet: debt‑free with strong cash, but margins normalising
If earnings momentum is set to soften, Natco’s balance sheet is at least entering this phase from a position of strength:
- MarketsMojo’s Q2 FY26 review highlights zero long‑term debt, a net cash position and cash and equivalents of roughly ₹2,690 crore as of H1 FY26. Markets Mojo
- Return ratios remain robust: ROE and ROCE are estimated above 20–30%, comfortably above the firm’s own three‑year averages. Markets Mojo
However, those returns were inflated by temporary exclusivity opportunities. Analyst models now bake in a multi‑year earnings reset: Simply Wall St notes that consensus forecasts point to revenue declining about 12% in 2026 with EPS also expected to fall, after several years of strong growth. Simply Wall St
AlphaSpread’s aggregation of “Wall Street” estimates suggests that after an 18% compound annual revenue growth rate over the last 13 years, Natco’s revenue is projected to shrink at roughly an 8% CAGR over the next three years, while operating income could contract at an even sharper ~35% CAGR as high‑margin products fade. Alphaspread
USFDA Manali (Chennai) inspection: seven observations, ‘procedural’ according to the company
Regulatory headlines have also driven recent volatility.
From 17–21 November 2025, the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) inspected Natco’s API manufacturing facility at Manali, Chennai. The inspection resulted in seven Form 483 observations. Business Standard
Natco has described the observations as procedural and manageable, and has said it will respond to the FDA within the stipulated time. The Economic Times
The market reaction was sharp:
- The stock fell about 2.6% on 25 November and extended losses over three sessions amid worries that the inspection might escalate into a warning letter or import alert. The Economic Times
- On 26 November, the shares then rebounded about 5.5% to ₹880, as some investors judged the concerns overdone once management reiterated that the issues were not critical. The Economic Times
Regulatory risk remains a key swing factor for any Indian pharma stock with US exposure. For now, markets appear to be assuming that Natco can remediate the observations without major disruption, but investors will watch closely for the FDA’s final classification.
Adcock Ingram acquisition: a big bet on South Africa
Another major driver of sentiment is Natco’s move into the South African market.
On 12 November 2025, Natco announced that it had completed the acquisition of a 35.75% stake in Adcock Ingram Holdings Ltd. for about USD 226 million (ZAR 4 billion). Moneycontrol
Key details:
- Adcock Ingram is one of South Africa’s oldest pharma companies, dating back to 1891, with popular brands such as Panado, Myprodol, Epi‑Max, Citro‑soda and Allergex. Moneycontrol
- As part of the transaction, Adcock has been delisted from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Natco now owns 35.75%, with the rest held by partner investors. Moneycontrol
- The purchase was funded from Natco’s substantial cash reserves; the company still retains a healthy cash pile after the deal. Moneycontrol Images
Strategically, management sees Adcock as:
- A commercial platform in South Africa and broader Africa, where Natco can later launch its own pipeline products once patents expire. Way2Wealth
- A way to diversify geographically away from a heavy dependence on a few US generics.
However, Natco holds less than 50%, so only about 35–36% of Adcock’s profit will be consolidated as “share of profit of associate”, not full revenue. That means the deal is more accretive to earnings than to reported top line. Way2Wealth
The market’s verdict so far has been mixed: an earlier round of announcements about the Adcock offer in July had seen Natco’s shares drop as much as 3–4%, as investors weighed the sizeable outlay and integration risk. The Economic Times
Revlimid winds down, semaglutide and CHS demerger line up the next phase
Revlimid (lenalidomide): last big quarter
Revlimid, a blockbuster cancer drug, has been the single biggest earnings driver for Natco over the past two years thanks to its US generic partnership. Management, ICICI Securities and Way2Wealth are all clear that Q2 FY26 marked the peak and the end of the Revlimid super‑cycle. Moneycontrol Images
From Q3 FY26:
- The company expects significantly lower volumes and shrinking market share as more generic players enter.
- It is not budgeting meaningful Revlimid revenue for Q3 and Q4. Way2Wealth
This explains why, despite strong cash flows, most earnings models show a steep decline in FY27.
Semaglutide: GLP‑1 opportunity across geographies
Management has highlighted semaglutide (a GLP‑1 agonist used for diabetes and obesity) as one of the key future growth drivers:
- India: Natco aims to be part of the “first wave” of semaglutide launches, targeting an India launch around March–April 2026, after completion of Phase 3 clinical trials and filing (expected by December 2025). Way2Wealth
- US and Canada: Here, Natco’s role is expected to be largely in first‑to‑file complex generic opportunities, though launches are still a few years away as regulatory and patent hurdles remain. Way2Wealth
- Brazil and South Africa: Progress is slower today, but Adcock Ingram could eventually provide a commercial foothold in South Africa when patents expire. Way2Wealth
Crop Health Sciences (CHS) demerger
Natco is also preparing to demerge its Crop Health Sciences (agrochemicals) business into a separate listed entity, with management targeting completion by FY26. The CHS business delivered about ₹525 crore in Q2 and remained EBITDA‑positive, according to management commentary. Way2Wealth
A separate listing could unlock value by allowing investors to value the agrochemicals and pharma operations independently.
Risdiplam/Evrysdi: pricing power meets legal risk
Natco has taken a bold stance in Risdiplam, an oral therapy for spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) marketed globally by Roche as Evrysdi.
- A March 2025 Delhi High Court judgment allowed Natco to launch a generic version of Evrysdi after rejecting Roche’s plea for an injunction. Ideasforindia
- Roche sells the branded product in India at around ₹6 lakh per bottle, whereas Natco has said it will price its locally manufactured generic at about ₹15,900 per bottle, slashing cost by nearly 80–90%. The Economic Times
In October 2025, Roche appealed to the Supreme Court of India against the High Court decision, keeping the legal overhang alive. The Economic Times
The Risdiplam case matters for Natco’s stock because:
- It underscores the company’s long‑standing positioning as an aggressive challenger on high‑priced patented drugs, similar to its historic Nexavar compulsory licensing case. Ideasforindia
- A favourable final outcome could solidify a new domestic revenue stream; an adverse verdict could curtail it and reset expectations.
How the Street views Natco now: mostly “Hold” with limited upside
Brokerage calls
Recent post‑Q2 FY26 reports paint a cautious picture:
- ICICI Securities maintains a “Reduce” rating with a revised target price of ₹750 (cut from ₹810), implying downside from current levels. The brokerage expects a sharp earnings drop in H2 FY26 as Revlimid normalises, and models a decline in revenue and EPS into FY27 before new launches pick up. Moneycontrol Images
- Way2Wealth keeps a “Hold” rating with a target around ₹920, close to the current market price. It emphasises the uncertainty around post‑Revlimid earnings, even as it acknowledges upside optionality from semaglutide, CHS demerger and the Adcock platform. Way2Wealth
Trendlyne’s aggregation of research reports shows that across five long‑term targets from two covering analysts, Natco has an average target price of about ₹845, implying roughly 8% downside from today’s levels around ₹918–921. Trendlyne
Independent valuation platforms
- Simply Wall St notes that while Natco’s Q2 results beat its expectations on both revenue and EPS, the consensus 2026 revenue forecast of ₹39 billion implies a 12% drop versus the prior year, with EPS also expected to contract. Its compilation of analyst targets shows an unchanged consensus fair value around ₹980, with a wide dispersion: bulls at ₹1,480 and bears near ₹712. Simply Wall St
- AlphaSpread’s “Wall Street” module puts the average 12‑month target at roughly ₹952 (4% upside from around ₹918), with a range of ₹719–1,260. The same dataset underlines the expected negative growth in revenue and operating income over the next three years. Alphaspread
Taken together, formal sell‑side coverage is relatively sparse and skewed to neutral or cautious, reflecting both the quality of Natco’s franchise and the visibility gap on post‑Revlimid earnings.
Short‑term technical and algorithmic forecasts
Quant‑driven and technical platforms — while not substitutes for fundamental analysis — offer a snapshot of how traders are reading the chart:
- StockInvest.us classifies NATCOPHARM as holding short‑ and long‑term buy signals from its moving averages, with support zones identified in the mid‑₹800s. The service flags elevated volatility and indicates that a decisive break below key support could trigger a trend‑change sell signal. StockInvest
- WalletInvestor’s purely technical model projects short‑term price levels in the mid‑₹900s, modestly above current spot, while emphasising that the stock is high‑risk and sensitive to market swings. Walletinvestor
These tools are best treated as sentiment gauges rather than as investment advice; their models can change quickly with price.
Key risks to monitor
For investors tracking Natco Pharma, the near‑term checklist looks something like this:
- USFDA outcome at Manali (Chennai)
Whether the seven observations are closed out smoothly or escalate into more serious regulatory action will heavily influence Natco’s US revenue trajectory and market confidence. The Economic Times - Speed and success of new launches
The timelines and commercial traction for semaglutide, other high‑value complex generics and CHS products — across India, the US, Brazil and South Africa — will determine how quickly Natco can replace fading Revlimid profits. Way2Wealth - Adcock Ingram integration and South Africa macro risk
Currency volatility in the ZAR, regulatory changes in South African healthcare and execution at Adcock could all affect the earnings contribution from the deal. Moneycontrol - Patent and legal outcomes
The final Supreme Court decision on Risdiplam/Evrysdi and any future high‑profile patent disputes will influence both Natco’s revenue and its reputation as a champion of affordable medicines. The Economic Times - Sector‑wide pricing pressure
Indian generic players continue to face US pricing pressure and periodic regulatory shocks. Natco’s focus on complex, limited‑competition products gives some protection, but not immunity. Markets Mojo
The bottom line
Natco Pharma enters December 2025 as a volatile, widely‑traded mid‑cap pharma stock with:
- A debt‑free balance sheet and strong cash,
- High but normalising margins,
- A shrinking but still meaningful tailwind from Revlimid,
- A big strategic bet on South Africa, and
- A pipeline of complex generics — from semaglutide to Risdiplam — that could drive the next growth phase if executed well.
Analyst targets cluster around current levels with only modest implied upside or even slight downside, reflecting the tug‑of‑war between a strong franchise and a difficult earnings transition. Simply Wall St
For now, the market seems to be balancing that uncertainty with optimism around Natco’s track record in tough molecules and its aggressive approach to global expansion. As always, this article is for information only and does not constitute investment advice; prospective investors should consider their own risk tolerance, time horizon and consult a qualified adviser before making decisions.
