Natco Pharma has had a busy few months: a big overseas acquisition in South Africa, a fresh USFDA inspection with Form 483 observations, strong-but-normalising earnings, and a credit-rating reaffirmation that reassured debt markets. The share price is finally stabilising after a brutal fall earlier in 2025, but the market is still arguing about what the stock is really worth.
Below is a detailed, news-style rundown of where Natco Pharma Limited stands as of 2 December 2025, and how analysts and models are currently reading the stock.
Natco Pharma share price today: rebound, but still far below 52‑week high
As of 2 December 2025, Natco Pharma shares are trading around ₹933–₹936 on the NSE/BSE, up roughly 3–3.5% versus the previous close. Live screens from major broker platforms and financial portals show: [1]
- Last traded price: ~₹933–₹936
- Market capitalisation: about ₹16,700–16,800 crore
- Trailing P/E: around 10.5–10.9x
- Price-to-book: roughly 2.0–2.1x
- Dividend yield: about 0.6–0.7%
- 52‑week range: roughly ₹660–₹1,505
Over the last six months, the stock is up about 6%, yet the one-year return is still around –34%, underscoring how deep the earlier drawdown was. [2]
Trading volumes have also been elevated. On 26 November, Natco hit an intraday high of ₹899, up about 7.8% on the day, with activity well above average and the stock trading above key moving averages, according to MarketsMojo’s intraday analysis. [3]
So price action has turned constructive, but the stock is still a long way below its December 2024 highs.
Q2 FY26 results: high margins, fat cash pile and a “post‑windfall” phase
Natco’s Q2 FY26 (quarter ended September 2025) numbers, released in mid‑November, were strong in absolute terms, but clearly part of a transition away from the earlier Revlimid windfall.
According to the company’s filings and earnings summaries:
- Consolidated revenue: about ₹14,630 million (₹1,463 crore)
- Profit after tax: roughly ₹5,179 million (₹517.9 crore)
- EPS: around ₹28.9 for the quarter
- EBITDA margin: a hefty ~46%
- Net cash: roughly ₹3,900 crore as of 30 September 2025 [4]
A separate quantitative summary of the same quarter shows very similar numbers and highlights: [5]
- Pharma segment contributing the bulk of revenue, maintaining very high EBIT margins (~48%)
- Agro‑chemicals still small but improving, with losses narrowing versus the prior year
- Strong operating cash flows in H1 FY26 and only moderate capex
Brokerage commentary around these results has generally emphasised three points:
- Q2 FY26 was better than expected, helped by higher supplies of generic Revlimid (gRevlimid), but management has already cautioned that this benefit will fade in H2 FY26, implying lower profitability in the second half. [6]
- The core business (oncology, specialty generics and agro) needs to increasingly carry the earnings story as Revlimid gradually normalises.
- The balance sheet remains very strong, giving Natco significant flexibility for R&D, acquisitions and capex. [7]
In short, the P&L still looks powerful, but the market knows the “super‑cycle” phase from a few marquee molecules is behind us, so the bar for future growth is higher.
Strategic expansion: Adcock Ingram deal gives Natco a serious South Africa footprint
The most structurally important news for Natco in 2025 is the acquisition of a 35.75% stake in South Africa’s Adcock Ingram Holdings Limited, one of that country’s largest pharma players.
Key details:
- Stake acquired:35.75% in Adcock Ingram
- Transaction value: about US$226 million (roughly ₹2,000 crore), valuing Adcock at around ZAR 11 billion
- Offer price:ZAR 75 per share to minority shareholders
- Structure: Adcock has been delisted from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange and will operate as a private company jointly controlled by Bidvest (~64%) and Natco (~36%) [8]
Adcock Ingram brings a portfolio of well‑known OTC and prescription brands in South Africa and other African markets, along with a long operating history and entrenched distribution. [9]
For Natco, the deal has several implications:
- Geographic diversification: a meaningful move beyond India, North America and existing RoW markets.
- Currency and execution risk: earnings in South African rand, plus integration and governance risks inherent in a large cross‑border deal.
- Capital allocation: roughly ₹2,000 crore outlay—funded from a strong cash position—but still a sizeable bet that needs to earn more than Natco’s cost of capital. [10]
Markets initially reacted cautiously when the deal was announced in July, with Natco shares falling a couple of percent on concerns about the ticket size and near‑term EPS impact. [11]
Now that the transaction has closed and Adcock has been delisted, the focus shifts to execution: integration, synergies, and how quickly Natco can “pharma‑engineer” better margins and growth from the platform.
Product pipeline and US generics: Everolimus launch and semaglutide hopes
On the product side, Natco continues to push its generics strategy in regulated markets.
Everolimus 1 mg generic Zortress launch in the US
On 31 October 2025, Natco announced the launch of Everolimus tablets 1 mg, a generic version of Zortress (Novartis), in the US market. The product, under the therapeutic class of mTOR‑inhibitor immunosuppressants, is used to prevent organ rejection in adult kidney and liver transplant patients. [12]
The launch is being executed via Natco’s US partner Breckenridge Pharmaceutical, which already sells Everolimus in other strengths (0.25 mg, 0.5 mg, 0.75 mg). This new strength expands the franchise and should modestly boost Natco’s US formulations revenue over time.
Longer‑term pipeline: semaglutide and niche oncology
Brokerage and media commentary around earlier quarters flagged semaglutide (the GLP‑1 molecule behind Ozempic/Wegovy) as a potential medium‑term trigger across India, Brazil and Canada after patent expiry in 2026, with US opportunities much later in the next decade. [13]
Natco is also investing in R&D projects like NRC‑2694, a candidate for metastatic head and neck cancer that is currently in Phase 2 trials, and continuing its historic focus on complex oncology generics. [14]
The strategic narrative is clear: use the Revlimid cash and strong balance sheet to build a pipeline that can outlive the patent cliffs.
Regulatory watch: USFDA Form 483 for the Manali, Chennai API unit
On the regulatory front, investors have been laser‑focused on the USFDA inspection of Natco’s API facility at Manali, Chennai.
- The USFDA conducted an inspection from 17–21 November 2025.
- After the inspection, Natco received seven observations in a Form 483.
- The company has described the issues as “procedural in nature” and expressed confidence it can address them fully. [15]
A Form 483 essentially lists conditions the FDA believes may violate US law or regulations; it does not automatically mean warning letters or import alerts will follow. Whether this remains a procedural clean‑up or escalates into something more serious will depend on:
- The quality and timeliness of Natco’s response, and
- Any follow‑up inspections or correspondence from the FDA.
For now, the Street seems to be treating this as a moderate, “watch‑and‑verify” risk rather than a full‑blown red flag.
Credit profile: ICRA reaffirms Natco at [ICRA]AA (Stable) / A1+
The rating agencies, at least, are relaxed.
On 29 November 2025, ICRA reaffirmed and assigned ratings of [ICRA]AA (Stable) / [ICRA]A1+ across Natco’s fund‑based and non‑fund‑based working capital limits, term loans and commercial paper: [16]
- Long‑term and short‑term working capital limits: [ICRA]AA (Stable) / [ICRA]A1+
- Unallocated limits: reaffirmed and assigned at [ICRA]AA (Stable) / [ICRA]A1+
- Term loan (₹400 crore): [ICRA]AA (Stable)
- Commercial paper (₹400 crore): [ICRA]A1+
ICRA’s rationale highlights:
- Very strong profitability with consolidated EBITDA margins in the mid‑40% range
- High ROE and ROCE
- Minimal leverage and strong debt‑protection metrics (Debt/EBITDA near 0.1x, extremely high interest‑coverage) [17]
This essentially says: even after the Adcock deal and ongoing R&D spend, Natco’s balance sheet remains a defensive asset for equity shareholders.
How analysts and models are valuing Natco Pharma now
Street consensus: neutral stance, modest upside
Data compiled by Investing.com and Trendlyne shows a “Neutral” consensus rating for Natco: [18]
- 11 analysts in the sample
- 4 Buy, 3 Hold, 4 Sell
- Average 12‑month target price: about ₹985
- Target range: ₹725 (bearish) to ₹1,480 (bullish)
- Implied upside from current levels: roughly +5–6%
Trendlyne’s latest update as of 2 December 2025 also lists a consensus target near ₹985 and tags the stock as a “Hold” at an LTP around ₹934. [19]
Some notable broker stances:
- ICICI Securities (15 November 2025) maintains a Sell/Reduce call with a target price of ₹750, arguing that earnings will normalise as gRevlimid fades and that the risk‑reward is less favourable after the earlier rally. [20]
- Other houses are more constructive but still cautious, often rating the stock as Hold with targets around current levels.
So the Street, in aggregate, sees limited upside at today’s price unless execution on the pipeline and acquisitions decisively beats expectations.
Quantitative / independent models: deep value signal
Independent analytics platforms are more bullish—at least on paper.
On 1 December 2025, Smart‑Investing estimated Natco’s intrinsic (fair) value at about ₹1,443 per share, based on the median of several valuation models (EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, Price/Sales). At current prices, that implies roughly a 37% discount to intrinsic value, and the site flags Natco as both “strong fundamentals” and “undervalued” on its scoring framework. [21]
Of course, those are model outputs, not promises from the universe—but they do highlight the spread between conservative broker targets and more optimistic valuation screens.
Short‑term technical view: upgraded to “Buy candidate”
Technical service StockInvest.us upgraded Natco Pharma (NATCOPHARM.NS) to a “Buy candidate” on 1 December 2025 after a 2.96% gain to ₹903.20: [22]
Key points from its latest analysis:
- The stock is trading near the top of a wide horizontal range, with a projected 90% probability of staying between roughly ₹776 and ₹916 over the next three months.
- A decisive breakout above ~₹926.8 would generate a strong buy signal and could mark a shift to a new uptrend.
- Short‑ and long‑term moving averages both currently give buy signals, with support zones indicated around ₹876–₹883 and stronger support near ₹832–₹846.
In other words: the quants think the momentum is finally lining up on the long side, but the stock is still boxed inside a range that needs to be broken convincingly.
Remember that brutal Q3 FY25? That’s the backdrop for today’s “value” story
Part of why Natco screens “cheap” on P/E and P/B is that the stock was hammered earlier this year.
In February 2025, after a very weak Q3 FY25:
- Revenue fell about 37% YoY,
- Net profit dropped nearly 38%,
- EBITDA plunged more than 80% YoY, and
- Shares collapsed roughly 34% over six sessions, hitting a 52‑week low around ₹876 at the time. [23]
The core problem was the absence of gRevlimid sales in that quarter and a big drop in export formulations. That shock is still burned into the collective memory of institutional investors, and it partly explains why the stock’s valuation multiple stayed compressed even as earnings recovered later in FY25 and FY26.
Today’s “value” argument is essentially:
earnings are back, but the multiple never fully bounced, and the market is still pricing in a lot of fear about concentration risk and regulatory landmines.
Key risks equity investors are watching
Even the bullish models tend to flag a few recurring risk themes:
- USFDA and compliance risk
- Seven Form 483 observations at the Manali API unit are currently labelled “procedural,” but any escalation into warning letters or import alerts would be a serious negative. [24]
- Concentration and normalisation of blockbuster molecules
- Earnings have been heavily influenced by a small number of high‑margin products (like gRevlimid). As those normalise, Natco needs multiple new growth drivers to maintain ROE and margins.
- Adcock integration and emerging‑market exposure
- The South Africa deal is strategically attractive, but also adds FX, political and execution risk. The market will want to see hard numbers—revenue, margins, cash flows—from this investment over the next 2–3 years. [25]
- Agro‑chemicals demerger and capital allocation
- Natco is working on demerging its Crop Health (agro) business into a separate subsidiary. How that is structured—and whether it unlocks value or simply moves pieces around—will matter for minority shareholders. [26]
- Litigation and IP disputes
- As a player in complex generics and challenging innovator patents, Natco is frequently involved in legal disputes, which can create binary outcomes and headline risk.
Natco Pharma stock forecast for 2026: scenarios, not certainties
Nobody has a crystal ball, but the data and current positioning allow a few broad 2026 scenarios:
1. Base case: neutral to mildly positive
- gRevlimid contribution steps down as expected.
- Core oncology and US generics maintain mid‑20s to high‑30s margins, though below “super cycle” levels.
- Adcock Ingram adds steady, mid‑single‑digit accretion without major surprises.
- USFDA issues at Manali are resolved without escalation.
Under that set‑up, the consensus 12‑month target (~₹985) and a modest 5–10% upside look reasonable. Dividends add a small sweetener, but not enough to transform returns on their own. [27]
2. Bull case: breakout and re‑rating
This would require a few things to go right simultaneously:
- Clear regulatory resolution at the Chennai API site.
- Stronger‑than‑expected traction from new launches (e.g., Everolimus, future semaglutide generics, oncology assets). [28]
- Visible earnings accretion from Adcock, with synergies and margin expansion.
- Market conviction that the earnings base is durable post‑Revlimid.
In that scenario, it’s not crazy to imagine the market moving back towards mid‑teens P/E multiples, which—combined with earnings growth—would justify target prices closer to the top end of the analyst range (say ₹1,400–₹1,500). [29]
3. Bear case: regulatory or integration stumble
Risks on the downside include:
- Escalation of FDA observations into a warning letter or import alert, hurting US sales. [30]
- Disappointing performance or write‑downs related to the Adcock investment. [31]
- Pipeline setbacks that make it harder to fill the Revlimid earnings hole.
Here, some of the more pessimistic broker targets around ₹725–₹750 start to look disturbingly relevant again. [32]
Bottom line: structurally interesting, tactically contested
As of 2 December 2025, Natco Pharma is a complex mix:
- Valuation: cheap on many metrics (P/E ~11x, P/B ~2x, big discount to some intrinsic value models). [33]
- Business quality: still high, with strong margins, robust cash generation and a fortress‑like balance sheet. [34]
- Growth story: shifting from one‑off windfalls to a more diversified, execution‑heavy model—South Africa, new generics, oncology pipeline. [35]
- Risk profile: non‑trivial, especially on US regulation and large‑ticket overseas investments. [36]
Analysts as a group are neutral with mild upside. Algorithmic and intrinsic‑value models lean clearly bullish. Short‑term technicals just flipped to “buy candidate”, but the stock still needs to decisively clear the ₹920–₹930 zone to convince many chart‑watchers that a new uptrend has truly begun. [37]
References
1. www.icicidirect.com, 2. www.icicidirect.com, 3. www.marketsmojo.com, 4. www.stockinsights.ai, 5. www.perivis.com, 6. trendlyne.com, 7. www.icra.in, 8. api.natcopharma.co.in, 9. www.moneycontrol.com, 10. m.economictimes.com, 11. economictimes.indiatimes.com, 12. www.expresspharma.in, 13. www.livemint.com, 14. trendlyne.com, 15. www.business-standard.com, 16. www.icra.in, 17. www.icra.in, 18. in.investing.com, 19. trendlyne.com, 20. trendlyne.com, 21. www.smart-investing.in, 22. stockinvest.us, 23. www.livemint.com, 24. www.business-standard.com, 25. www.moneycontrol.com, 26. www.perivis.com, 27. in.investing.com, 28. www.expresspharma.in, 29. in.investing.com, 30. pharma.economictimes.indiatimes.com, 31. www.whalesbook.com, 32. in.investing.com, 33. economictimes.indiatimes.com, 34. www.icra.in, 35. www.moneycontrol.com, 36. www.business-standard.com, 37. stockinvest.us
