National Australia Bank Limited (ASX: NAB) is heading into the final stretch of 2025 with a familiar “big bank” cocktail of tailwinds and headaches: resilient earnings, steady shareholder returns, and a macro backdrop that can turn on a single inflation print.
As of the latest available close (19 December 2025), NAB shares were at A$42.14, up on the day and sitting well above where the stock began the calendar year. [1] That’s the headline. The story underneath it is about interest-rate expectations abruptly swinging from “cuts?” to “maybe hikes,” competitive pressure in mortgages and deposits, and investors weighing whether the price already bakes in the good news.
Below is a detailed roundup of the key news, forecasts, and analyst views shaping NAB stock as of 21 December 2025.
NAB share price today: where National Australia Bank stock stands in late December
NAB closed 19 December 2025 at A$42.14. [2] On that same data set, NAB’s 2025 performance shows:
- Start of year (2025): A$37.10
- 2025 high: A$45.25
- 2025 low: A$31.13
- Move for the year: +13.58% [3]
That matters for investors because it frames the big question going into 2026: is NAB being priced as a “steady dividend bank,” or as a bank that could re-accelerate returns if rates and margins surprise to the upside?
The big macro driver: the RBA is on hold — but markets (and banks) are getting nervous
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy stance is the gravitational field for all major bank stocks, and NAB is no exception.
On 9 December 2025, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 3.60%. [4] But what investors are reacting to now is less the decision itself and more the shift in tone and expectations:
- A Reuters poll published 5 December showed economists broadly expecting the RBA to hold at 3.60% and keep rates there through 2026—an outlook that had already shifted from expecting cuts earlier. [5]
- In the last week, multiple consumer-finance outlets have reported that NAB’s economists (and CBA’s) have updated forecasts to expect a hike as early as February 2026, with NAB projecting two hikes (February and May) that could take the cash rate to 4.10%. [6]
That divergence—poll consensus = long hold, NAB’s house view = hikes—is a big reason investors are paying attention. If NAB’s forecast is right, the impact can ripple through net interest margins (NIM), funding costs, mortgage competition, and credit quality.
Mortgage competition is forcing strategy changes — and NAB is leaning into proprietary channels
One of the most important sector stories for 2025 has been margin defence.
A Reuters report in November highlighted how Australia’s big banks have been pushing to reduce reliance on mortgage brokers (who originate a large share of new loans) and drive more business through proprietary channels to protect returns in an intensely competitive mortgage market. [7]
NAB’s own FY2025 reporting aligns with that direction: it reported that proprietary channel drawdowns improved to 41% in FY25 from 38% in FY24, alongside efforts to build home-lending banker capacity. [8]
Why this matters for NAB stock: if the bank can originate more loans “in-house,” it can potentially lift economics per loan (or at least reduce acquisition costs) in a market where pricing pressure is relentless.
NAB lifted fixed home loan rates — a signal the market is bracing for higher funding costs
In mid-December, NAB also joined the move higher in fixed mortgage rates.
A report published 16 December 2025 noted NAB lifted fixed home loan rates by up to 0.20%, with commentary linking the move to expectations that wholesale funding costs may rise and that lenders were positioning for a possible RBA hike cycle in 2026. [9]
This kind of repricing matters to shareholders for two reasons:
- It can support margins (if done faster than competitors, or if funding costs rise).
- It can pressure borrowers (which can flow into arrears and credit impairment if conditions worsen).
Banks live in the weird twilight zone where “higher rates” can be good for margin… until they aren’t.
FY2025 results recap: stable earnings, stronger deposits, higher credit impairment charges
NAB’s most recent full-year results (FY2025, year to September 2025) anchor the fundamental picture investors keep coming back to.
From NAB’s FY25 results summary:
- Cash earnings:A$7,091m (slightly down year-on-year) [10]
- Statutory net profit:A$6,759m [11]
- Net interest margin (NIM):1.74% (up 3 bps overall, with underlying pressure described from deposits and wholesale funding) [12]
- Gross loans and advances:+5.9%; Deposits:+7.4% [13]
- Credit impairment charge:A$833m (up from FY24) [14]
- Non-performing exposures ratio:1.55% (as at September 2025, per the summary disclosure) [15]
For investors, the “clean” takeaway is that NAB delivered a relatively steady year operationally, with balance sheet growth and a modestly higher reported NIM—but with clear signs that credit costs rose and that funding/mix dynamics are doing what they always do late-cycle: complicate the margin story.
Capital strength and shareholder returns: dividend, CET1, and buyback impacts
For NAB stockholders, dividends are not an optional extra—they’re the main event.
NAB dividend
NAB confirmed its 2025 final dividend of 85 cents per share, 100% franked, paid 12 December 2025. [16]
Capital position (CET1)
NAB reported a Group CET1 ratio of 11.70% as at 30 September 2025. [17]
Buyback and capital management
The FY25 results summary also references capital impacts from share buybacks, including disclosure that A$0.6 billion of shares were bought back in FY25 and contextual notes around an on-market buyback program. [18]
Bottom line: NAB is presenting itself as “capital solid, dividend steady,” while still using buybacks as a lever—exactly the profile that tends to attract income-focused investors when macro conditions aren’t screaming recession.
The New Zealand angle: BNZ and the RBNZ capital rule reset
A genuinely important (and sometimes overlooked) piece of NAB’s story is that Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) sits inside the NAB group.
On 17 December 2025, Reuters reported that New Zealand’s central bank would lower some capital requirements following a review of rules introduced in 2019. For the large Australian-owned banks operating in NZ (including BNZ), the reported shift included:
- CET1 requirement down to 12% from 16%
- Tier 2 requirement up to 3% from 2%
- A requirement to hold internal loss absorbing capacity of 6% [19]
For NAB shareholders, this kind of regulatory change can affect capital allocation and dividend capacity over time—though the net impact depends on implementation details, transition paths, and how BNZ (and peers) respond.
Governance and leadership: a new CFO is coming — and the sector remains under a compliance microscope
CFO appointment
NAB announced it appointed Inder Singh (from QBE) as Group CFO, effective March 2026, according to Reuters reporting in late August 2025. [20]
Leadership transitions matter for bank stocks because the CFO is deeply tied to capital management, cost discipline, and how a bank communicates its margin and provisioning reality to markets.
Risk and trust issues don’t vanish
NAB also featured in a high-profile law-enforcement story in November, when Reuters reported police charged a former NAB employee in connection with alleged fraud and money-laundering activity; NAB said it had zero tolerance and that there was no customer impact. [21]
Investors generally treat these incidents as reputation and controls signals rather than direct financial drivers—unless they reveal systemic problems. In 2025, with regulators visibly active across financial services, markets tend to penalize any hint that “controls are slipping,” even if it’s not (yet) a material earnings line item.
National Australia Bank stock forecast: what analysts’ targets imply now
Analyst forecasts are not prophecy, but they do shape the narrative around valuation—especially for banks that trade heavily on yield and relative multiples.
Two widely followed market-data aggregations show a cautious tilt:
- Investing.com lists an overall consensus rating of “Sell” for NAB, with an average 12‑month price target of A$38.07 (shown as ~-9.66% downside from the reference price), based on 14 analysts and recent updates across major firms. [22]
- ValueInvesting.io shows a “Hold” consensus from 20 analysts, with an average target of A$39.14 and a forecast range of A$29.29 to A$48.63. [23]
The shared implication is pretty clear: NAB’s late‑December trading level (~A$42) is above many aggregated target averages. [24] That doesn’t mean “the stock must fall.” It means the market is currently paying up for some combination of:
- dividend reliability and franking value,
- the chance margins hold up better than feared,
- and/or the possibility that rates move higher again (helping bank economics—up to a point).
Key dates and catalysts investors are watching next
Two calendars matter for NAB stock: the company’s reporting cadence and the RBA’s policy timeline.
NAB’s upcoming reporting events
NAB’s shareholder calendar lists:
- 18 February 2026: First Quarter Trading Update
- 4 May 2026: Half Year Results Announcement [25]
RBA milestones
The RBA has also flagged key upcoming events, including minutes from the December meeting and the next policy decision window in early February 2026. [26]
These dates are where the “soft” debate about margin, funding costs, and credit quality becomes “hard” numbers—exactly what typically moves bank stocks.
Where the NAB stock debate sits on 21 December 2025
NAB is finishing 2025 in a classic big-bank position:
- The bank has steady earnings and a fully franked dividend that income investors love. [27]
- Competition in mortgages and deposits remains intense, pushing banks to redesign distribution and pricing strategies. [28]
- Interest-rate expectations have become messier, with reputable forecasts ranging from “hold all through 2026” to “hikes starting February.” [29]
- Analysts’ aggregated price targets cluster in the high 30s, while the stock trades around A$42, setting up a valuation argument that will likely be settled by the next few data releases (inflation, labour, and bank trading updates). [30]
If you want the investor version of the plot: NAB is a tug-of-war between “boring cash machine” and “rates-and-margins roulette,” and 2026’s first-quarter data will decide which side gets to brag.
References
1. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 2. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 3. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 4. www.rba.gov.au, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.canstar.com.au, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.nab.com.au, 9. www.savings.com.au, 10. www.nab.com.au, 11. www.nab.com.au, 12. www.nab.com.au, 13. www.nab.com.au, 14. www.nab.com.au, 15. www.nab.com.au, 16. www.nab.com.au, 17. www.nab.com.au, 18. www.nab.com.au, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. valueinvesting.io, 24. www.intelligentinvestor.com.au, 25. www.nab.com.au, 26. www.rba.gov.au, 27. www.nab.com.au, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.investing.com
