National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) Share Price on 9 December 2025: Dividends, Valuation and Outlook After FY25 Results

As of 9 December 2025, National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) sits at the intersection of three big themes for investors: a rich valuation, a resilient dividend, and a suddenly more uncertain interest‑rate outlook.

Around early afternoon on Tuesday, NAB shares were trading near A$40.8–A$41.0, giving the bank a market value of roughly A$124 billion and placing the stock roughly in the middle of its 52‑week range of about A$29.8 to A$44.4. ^[1]

At these levels, NAB is valued on about 18–19 times trailing earnings, roughly 17 times forward earnings, and close to 2.0× price‑to‑book, a clear premium to many global and domestic banking peers whose average price–earnings ratios tend to sit closer to 9–13×. TechStock²+1

Yet the stock’s persistent premium hasn’t deterred income‑focused investors. The bank has confirmed total FY25 ordinary dividends of A$1.70 per share (two fully‑franked dividends of 85 cents each), implying a trailing cash yield of roughly 4.0–4.2% at current prices. ^[2]

Below is a detailed wrap‑up of the latest news, forecasts and analysis on NAB shares as at 9 December 2025, suitable for investors tracking the stock into the upcoming AGM and dividend payment.

NAB share price today: where things stand

Intraday quotes on 9 December show NAB trading a little above last week’s levels, around A$40.85, up roughly 0.6% on the session. ^[3]

Recent data from TechStock² and other market trackers show NAB shares oscillating in a tight band around A$40–A$41 over the past week, after rebounding from a weak November in which the stock fell about 8% from its early‑October highs. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

On standard valuation markers:

Price/Earnings (trailing): ~18.3–18.5×
Forward P/E: ~17× based on modest earnings growth expectations
Price/Book: ~2.0× reported equity, a little higher on tangible book
Dividend yield (trailing): ~4.0–4.2%, fully franked marketindex.com.au+3TechStock²+3TechStock²+3

These numbers sit at the heart of the current debate: NAB looks like a classic income stock, but it is no longer obviously cheap.

FY25 results: “steady in a tough environment”

NAB released its FY25 full‑year results on 6 November 2025, reporting cash earnings of about A$7.1 billion, essentially flat on FY24 and slightly below market expectations. ^[4]

Key takeaways from the bank’s own commentary and independent analysis include: ^[5]

Business banking still the engine room
- Australian business lending balances grew around 9% over the year, with the second half delivering the strongest half‑year growth in more than three years.
- NAB increased market share in both business lending and business deposits, reinforcing its status as Australia’s leading business bank.
Deposit‑funded growth
- Total customer deposits rose about 7–7.5%, with particularly strong growth in personal banking deposits and transaction accounts.
- Much of the lending growth was funded by deposits rather than wholesale markets, supporting margins and liquidity.
Net interest margin (NIM) stabilising
- While the sector overall has faced margin pressure, independent analysis highlights that NAB’s group NIM actually expanded by around 3 basis points in the second half, a solid outcome relative to peers. ^[6]
Higher loan impairments
- Loan impairment charges climbed by about 14% to roughly A$830 million, with stress showing up mainly in business banking and unsecured retail lending. ^[7]
- Non‑performing loans ticked higher, but still sit at levels consistent with a normalising (rather than crisis‑level) credit cycle.
Capital and balance sheet strength
- NAB’s Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio sits around 11.7%, comfortably above regulatory “unquestionably strong” benchmarks. ^[8]
- Completion of a A$3.0 billion on‑market buyback in March 2025 and the sale of the remaining 20% stake in MLC Life (finalised in October 2025) trimmed and then topped up capital, leaving pro‑forma CET1 just under 11.8%. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

CEO Andrew Irvine has framed FY25 as the first full year under NAB’s refreshed strategy, emphasising three priorities: expanding business banking, growing deposits and strengthening proprietary (direct) home lending. He argues FY25 demonstrates progress on all three fronts despite “challenging” conditions. ^[9]

Dividends: still a core attraction

For many local investors, the main reason to own NAB is the franked income stream.

FY25 total dividend: 170 cents per share (two 85‑cent fully franked payments), fractionally higher than FY24’s 169 cents. TechStock²+2marketindex.com.au+2
Final FY25 dividend payment date:12 December 2025, with the stock having traded ex‑dividend on 11 November. ^[10]
At the current price near A$40.8, that payout equates to a trailing yield of about 4.0–4.2%, before the benefit of franking credits. TechStock²+2StockLight+2

Sector commentary from S&P Global and others suggests dividends across Australia’s major banks are likely to be broadly flat through 2025–26, as higher credit charges and cost growth constrain earnings expansion. TechStock²+1

The upshot: the dividend looks defensible rather than aggressively growing. For income‑oriented investors comfortable with low single‑digit growth, that can still be attractive; for those chasing rapid capital appreciation, it may be less compelling.

What the latest research and media are saying

Fresh analysis this week: is NAB still worth buying?

A new 9 December 2025 note from Rask Media titled “Are NAB shares worth considering in December?” uses dividend‑discount style models to value the stock. The article’s teaser indicates that under conservative assumptions the analyst arrives at fair value in the mid‑A$30s per share, below the current price, though more optimistic dividend growth lifts that estimate somewhat. ^[11]

TechStock²’s detailed breakdown earlier this month highlighted that: TechStock²+2TechStock²+2

Broker 12‑month price targets cluster around A$38, implying mild downside from current levels.
Consensus ratings across several platforms skew toward “Sell” or “Underperform”, with relatively few outright “Buy” calls.
Morningstar recently upgraded its fair‑value estimate slightly to around A$33 per share, but still describes NAB as “materially overvalued” at ~A$40.

Motley Fool Australia continues to frame NAB primarily as a passive income vehicle. A 7–8 December series of articles asks whether the current yield compensates for the richer valuation; their writers generally conclude that NAB can suit long‑term income portfolios, but is unlikely to be a bargain in the short term. ^[12]

Fund manager Montgomery Investment Management, by contrast, remains decidedly bullish. In a 25 November wire, Roger Montgomery: ^[13]

Praised NAB’s execution on business banking, deposits and direct mortgages,
Saw the rise in impairments as cyclical “noise” rather than structural deterioration, and
Set a target price around A$54.26, implying roughly 20–25% upside over 2–3 years plus dividends, arguing that the bank’s strategic repositioning and balance‑sheet strength justify a premium multiple.

Put simply, short‑term market strategists are wary of the valuation, while a subset of long‑horizon, fundamentals‑driven managers remains constructive.

Technical picture: momentum still soft

While this article doesn’t include charts, it’s worth noting how technical screens currently view NAB: TechStock²+1

Several popular platforms classify NAB as a “Sell” or “Strong Sell” on daily technicals, with the share price sitting below key short‑ and medium‑term moving averages but still above the 200‑day trendline (around A$38).
Indicators such as the 14‑day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hover in the low‑to‑mid‑30s, signalling weak momentum but not yet deeply oversold conditions.

MarketIndex’s ChartWatch recently listed NAB among ASX large caps in a developing downtrend, reflecting the pull‑back from October highs and cautious sentiment toward financials more broadly. TechStock²+1

Macro backdrop: NAB’s own survey shows momentum cooling

The big new macro data point today is the November NAB Business Survey.

The 9 December Reuters coverage of the survey notes that NAB’s index of business conditions fell 3 points to +7 in November, while business confidence dropped 5 points to +1. Capacity utilisation, however, edged up to about 83.6% – the highest in 18 months – and price indicators in the survey ticked higher. ^[14]

NAB’s chief economist Sally Auld warned that businesses remain capacity‑constrained, and that any acceleration in growth from here could quickly feed back into further price pressures. That assessment dovetails with: ^[15]

Broad expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate at 3.60% at its December meeting, and
Growing speculation that the next move might be up rather than down in 2026 if inflation proves sticky.

Separate analysis in Broker Daily published on 9 December highlights a split among economists: some now see two possible rate hikes in 2026, while others argue that talk of renewed tightening is premature and still see more downside than upside for rates over the next couple of years. NAB’s Auld flagged a scenario in which the RBA could tighten as early as February 2026 if inflation runs hot, underscoring that the “easy” part of the easing cycle may be over. ^[16]

Realestate.com.au reports that NAB, ANZ and CBA have each reversed earlier expectations of further cuts, now publicly projecting that the cash rate will likely remain unchanged through 2026, leaving Westpac as the only major bank still forecasting additional reductions. ^[17]

For NAB’s profit outlook, this mixed macro picture is crucial:

Higher‑for‑longer rates can support margins but pressure borrowers and credit quality.
Faster‑than‑expected cuts would relieve borrowers but compress margins and potentially weigh on earnings growth.

Structural moves: cost cuts, tech spending and offshoring

Beyond the headline P&L, NAB has been actively reshaping its cost base and technology footprint.

In September, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the bank would cut about 410 jobs, mainly in technology and enterprise operations, while creating around 127 roles in India and Vietnam. ^[18]

The rationale:

Extend operating hours,
Speed up processes, and
Contain labour costs in a tight domestic market.

Unions and critics, predictably, have raised concerns about offshoring and service quality. Analysts mostly see the move as part of a broader digital and AI push, which already drove FY25 investment spending up to roughly A$1.8 billion, focused on digital platforms, front‑line banker tools and artificial intelligence capability. ^[19]

At the same time, NAB continues to face regulatory and conduct pressure. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission recently noted that earlier in 2025 NAB paid penalties totalling about A$751,200 over alleged breaches of Consumer Data Right rules, relating to data quality issues. ^[20]

Add in ongoing payroll remediation provisions and increased spending on compliance, and it’s clear that cost control is not just about cutting staff; it’s a tug of war between investment, regulation, and operating discipline.

How strong is the balance sheet?

Credit rating agencies and prudential regulators still view NAB as very robust: ^[21]

NAB carries an AA‑level long‑term credit rating with a stable outlook from DBRS Morningstar and other agencies, reflecting strong capitalisation, conservative funding and its importance to the system.
Regulatory metrics such as the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and net stable funding ratio (NSFR) sit well above minimums.
Sector‑wide analysis from the RBA and KPMG’s half‑year big‑four banks review points to resilient asset quality, modest net interest margin compression and elevated but manageable credit provisions. ^[22]

In short, NAB looks very far from any solvency stress. The main debates today are about earnings growth, margin trajectory and valuation, not balance‑sheet survival.

Valuation and forecasts: income versus downside risk

Pulling the various forecasts together:

Sell‑side broker consensus across several platforms puts the average 12‑month price target around A$38, below today’s price, with ratings skewed toward “Hold” and “Sell”. TechStock²+2TechStock²+2
Morningstar assigns NAB a “wide moat” thanks to its business‑banking franchise and sees mid‑single‑digit EPS growth and 11–12% return on equity through 2030, but still judges the stock overvalued at current levels, given a fair value estimate near A$33. TechStock²+1
Motley Fool’s long‑range modelling of broker forecasts out to 2030 points to modest, bond‑like growth, with stable returns rather than spectacular compounding. TechStock²+1
Montgomery Investment Management, on the other hand, forecasts mid‑teens returns on equity as the new strategy beds down and sees fair value north of A$50, assuming successful execution and a supportive macro backdrop. ^[23]

The gap between these views highlights the central trade‑off:

Bullish case:
- Strong, systemically important franchise.
- Well‑capitalised balance sheet and high credit rating.
- Sticky, fully‑franked dividend around 4% with scope for gradual growth.
- Upside if digital investment and business‑banking strategy deliver faster‑than‑expected earnings growth.
Bearish case:
- Near‑peak valuation multiples for a low‑growth bank.
- Cyclical credit risk as impairments normalise and business borrowers feel the strain of high rates.
- Margin downside if competition intensifies or rate cuts eventually arrive faster than expected.
- Ongoing regulatory and conduct costs.

For now, the market price near A$40–A$41 effectively splits the difference between these narratives.

Key upcoming dates for NAB investors

Several near‑term catalysts matter for holders and watchers of NAB shares: ^[24]

9 December 2025 – RBA’s final rate decision of the year, with NAB’s economists flagging a more balanced risk between cuts and hikes in 2026.
12 December 2025 – Final FY25 dividend payment date and NAB 2025 Annual General Meeting in Melbourne (hybrid format).
Early 2026 (Feb–May) – Next RBA meetings and NAB’s 1H26 results, which will give the first detailed look at how higher‑for‑longer rates and any economic slowdown are feeding into arrears and business lending demand.

These events will shape not just NAB’s earnings path but also the broader sentiment toward Australian bank stocks.

Bottom line: what NAB stock represents on 9 December 2025

As at 9 December 2025, National Australia Bank shares represent a fairly textbook big‑bank proposition:

A robust, systemically important franchise centred on business banking and supported by solid deposit funding.
A reliable, fully‑franked dividend stream around 4%, with a board signalling stability rather than aggressive growth.
Earnings that are stable rather than spectacular, with modest growth potential if the strategy executes and credit conditions stay benign.
A valuation premium that bakes in much of that stability and leaves less room for disappointment if margins compress or impairments rise.

Whether that mix is attractive depends on your goals and risk tolerance. Income‑oriented investors may be comfortable accepting the higher multiple in exchange for yield and perceived safety. More valuation‑sensitive or growth‑oriented investors may well prefer to wait for either cheaper prices or faster growth before taking a stronger position.

Either way, the next few months – combining an RBA inflection point, an AGM, and the bedding‑in of NAB’s refreshed strategy – will be critical in determining whether the stock can grow into its premium valuation or whether that premium starts to erode.