National Australia Bank (ASX:NAB) Share Price Outlook: 2025 Earnings, Dividends and Fresh Analyst Forecasts

National Australia Bank Limited (ASX:NAB) opens the final month of 2025 trading at around A$40 per share, roughly 11% below its early‑October peak and well above its April low, as investors digest a year of flat earnings, a slightly higher dividend and increasingly cautious analyst commentary. ^[1]

On 1 December 2025, several new valuation and technical pieces on NAB landed, making this a good moment to pull together what’s been happening with the stock – and what the latest numbers and forecasts imply.

NAB share price today: Pullback from 52‑week highs

Different market data providers show NAB trading just under or around A$40 on 1 December:

TradingEconomics reports NAB at A$39.87, down about 0.6% from the prior session. ^[2]
Intelligent Investor and other market sites quote a current price of A$40.10, down about 2% over the past week. ^[3]
The stock has traded in a 52‑week range of roughly A$31.13 to A$45.25, with the high reached in early October and the low in early April. ^[4]

In today’s broader market context, financials are acting as a drag on the ASX 200, with RTTNews noting National Australia Bank, ANZ and Westpac all down close to 1% in Monday trade. ^[5]

Over the past 12 months NAB has delivered only low‑single‑digit share price gains, with the recent slide from October’s high leaving the stock about 10–11% below its peak but still more than 20% above its April trough. ^[6]

FY25 results: Higher revenue, flat earnings

NAB’s full‑year 2025 (FY25) results, for the year to 30 September 2025, were published on 6 November and form the fundamental backdrop to the current share price. ^[7]

Key numbers from the bank’s official results and management discussion: ^[8]

Cash earnings: A$7,091 million, essentially flat on FY24 (A$7,102m, down 0.2%).
Net interest income: A$17.4 billion, up about 3.8% year on year, helped by modest loan growth and a slightly higher net interest margin.
Net interest margin (NIM): 1.74% for the year, up from 1.71% in FY24; in the second half it rose to about 1.78%, 8 basis points higher than the first half. ^[9]
Credit impairment charge: A$833 million versus A$728 million in FY24, driven by higher individually assessed impairments partly offset by a release of A$131 million from collective provisions. ^[10]
Cash return on equity: 11.4%, slightly lower than 11.6% in FY24. ^[11]

Asset quality has clearly softened but not cracked. NAB reports:

A higher level of individually assessed provisions, particularly in business lending and some unsecured retail exposures.
A modest increase in non‑performing exposures as a share of total loans, although management notes that the pace of deterioration slowed in the second half, and that collective provisions remain above pre‑COVID levels. ^[12]

Morningstar summarised the full‑year picture as “profit stable at about A$7.1 billion”, with loan and margin growth offset by higher impairments and operating expenses, including wage inflation and technology spending. ^[13]

Business momentum: Lending and deposits still growing

NAB’s own commentary around the FY25 results emphasised that, beneath flat earnings, operating momentum has been solid, especially in business banking: ^[14]

Australian business lending balances grew 9.1% over the year, including 5.8% growth in the second half alone.
Total customer deposits rose 7.4% over the year.
In home lending, 41% of mortgages are now written through NAB’s proprietary bankers rather than brokers, reflecting a strategic push into direct customer relationships.

CEO Andrew Irvine characterised FY25 as the first full year of a refreshed strategy focused on three priorities: growing the business bank, driving deposit growth and strengthening proprietary home lending. ^[15]

This growth focus, however, is not free. Operating expenses rose about 4.6%, reflecting higher technology and compliance spending along with investments in frontline staff and digital capabilities. ^[16]

Capital, dividends and buybacks: Yield around 4%

On capital and shareholder returns, FY25 sends a mixed but broadly solid signal:

The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio stands at 11.70%, down 65 basis points from a year earlier but comfortably above NAB’s new operating target of >11.25%, which was lifted in 2025 to reflect APRA’s planned phase‑out of Additional Tier 1 capital from 2027. ^[17]
NAB completed its A$3.0 billion on‑market share buyback on 12 March 2025, cancelling 87.8 million shares; about A$0.6 billion of this was repurchased during FY25, shaving around 15 basis points off CET1. ^[18]
A sale of the bank’s remaining 20% stake in MLC Life, completed on 31 October 2025, adds roughly 11 basis points to the CET1 ratio on a pro‑forma basis, bringing it to about 11.81%. ^[19]

For income investors, the dividend story is straightforward:

FY25 total ordinary dividend:170 cents per share (two 85‑cent fully franked dividends), up slightly from 169 cents in FY24. ^[20]
The final dividend goes ex‑dividend on 11 November 2025 and is scheduled for payment on 12 December 2025. ^[21]
Depending on the exact share price used, NAB’s current trailing dividend yield is around 4%, with DividendMax and other trackers quoting roughly 4.0–4.2%. ^[22]

S&P Global Market Intelligence expects dividends across Australia’s major banks to be broadly flat in 2025 as higher impairments and more subdued revenue growth constrain cash earnings growth. ^[23]

Cost cuts, offshoring and AI: Reshaping the cost base

Beyond the headline numbers, NAB has been quietly reshaping its workforce and cost base.

In September 2025, NAB confirmed it would cut around 410 jobs, primarily in technology and enterprise operations, while creating 127 roles in India and Vietnam. The bank argued that a more global workforce would extend operating hours and speed up processes, but unions accused it of betraying workers and hollowing out services. ^[24]

Academic and industry commentary linked the move to:

Pressure to lift the share price and profitability in a highly scrutinised sector.
The rollout of artificial intelligence and automation, which is reshaping back‑office roles across the industry. ^[25]

Taken together with rising technology spend disclosed in the FY25 accounts, the job cuts underline NAB’s attempt to trade near‑term restructuring pain for longer‑term efficiency gains.

New valuations published on 1 December 2025

Kalkine Media: Valuing NAB with PE and dividend discount models

On 1 December 2025, Kalkine Media published “Unveiling NAB Shares: A Comprehensive Valuation Guide for Investors”, walking through how investors might value NAB using both price‑earnings (PE) multiples and a dividend discount model (DDM). ^[26]

The piece emphasises that:

Large Australian banks, including NAB, remain core holdings for dividend‑focused investors, partly because fully franked dividends can be tax‑efficient for many local shareholders.
A sector‑adjusted PE comparison can help show whether NAB trades at a premium or discount to other ASX 100 banks.
DDM can be particularly useful for banks with relatively stable dividend policies, especially when fully franked dividends are factored into the expected return. ^[27]

Kalkine stops short of publishing a specific fair‑value target, instead outlining a framework for investors to plug in their own assumptions for dividend growth and required returns.

Rask Media: “NAB share price at $40 – here’s how I would value them”

Also today, Rask Media released an article titled “NAB share price at $40: here’s how I would value them”, promising two concrete valuation methods investors can apply at the current share price. ^[28]

While the full detail sits behind a paywall, the focus is clearly on:

Assessing whether A$40 per share offers a margin of safety relative to long‑term earnings and dividend assumptions.
Comparing NAB’s valuation metrics with other income‑oriented ASX shares.

Together, the Kalkine and Rask pieces highlight that valuation, not just yield, is front‑of‑mind for investors as NAB trades near the middle of its 52‑week range.

Fundamental analyst views: “Wide moat, but valuation looks stretched”

Morningstar’s 8 November 2025 note on NAB is one of the most detailed recent fundamental analyses. Key takeaways: ^[29]

NAB’s fiscal 2025 profit was stable at about A$7.1 billion, with stronger lending and higher margins offset by higher loan losses and expenses.
Loan growth accelerated to about a 6.5% annualised rate in the second half, while the group net interest margin improved to 1.78% versus the first half.
Morningstar expects around 4.5% annual loan growth through 2030, underpinned by 2–3% GDP growth, and sees NAB maintaining an 11–12% return on equity.
The analyst assigns NAB a “wide moat” based on its leading business‑banking franchise and scale advantages, but now estimates fair value at A$33 per share, roughly 3% above their prior estimate, driven mainly by the passage of time.
With the stock trading close to A$40, Morningstar judges shares “materially overvalued”, pointing to a forward PE near 18 times and a dividend yield around 4%, which they see as rich for a bank expected to grow EPS at about 5% per year.

Credit‑rating agencies remain more sanguine about NAB’s balance sheet strength. DBRS Morningstar most recently confirmed the bank’s long‑term issuer rating at AA with a Stable trend, with an intrinsic assessment of AA (low) and one notch of uplift for expected systemic support, reflecting NAB’s importance to the Australian financial system. ^[30]

This combination – strong franchise and credit quality, but demanding equity valuation – is a recurring theme across institutional research on NAB in late 2025.

Technical picture: Downtrend flags and “Sell” signals

From a chart‑based perspective, NAB looks much less friendly than its fundamental profile might suggest.

Daily technicals

Both Investing.com and TipRanks classify NAB’s short‑term technical setup as bearish:

Investing.com’s technical summary calls NAB a “Strong Sell” on the daily timeframe, with 0 buy and 9 sell signals among the indicators it tracks. The 14‑day RSI sits around 34, leaning towards oversold, while the MACD is modestly negative. ^[31]
TipRanks reports an overall “Sell” technical consensus, with the moving‑average component at “Strong Sell”: NAB’s share price around A$40.10 sits below its 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100‑day simple and exponential moving averages, but still above the 200‑day average near A$38.09. ^[32]

In short: short‑term momentum is negative, though the long‑term trend (relative to the 200‑day average) is not yet decisively broken.

ChartWatch and sector context

In a 1 December 2025 edition of its daily scan, MarketIndex’s ChartWatch lists National Australia Bank among the day’s “interesting downtrends” on the ASX, alongside several other large‑cap financial names. ^[33]

A separate ASX 200 market outlook article from Forex.com last week highlights that financial stocks are forming a potential bear flag, with NAB cited as a key contributor to sector weakness. ^[34]

Short‑term traders, in other words, are seeing more red than green in the charts for now.

Remember Q1: Earnings wobble and borrower stress

The 2025 narrative for NAB started on a more sour note.

In February, a first‑quarter trading update showed: ^[35]

Cash earnings of A$1.74 billion, slightly below consensus and down from A$1.80 billion a year earlier.
A “small decline” in net interest margin as higher funding costs and intense competition squeezed profitability.
A rise in impaired and defaulted assets to the highest level in at least two years as a share of total loans, particularly in business banking.

Reuters reported that NAB’s shares fell as much as 8% intraday on the update – the biggest single‑day drop in five years – amid concerns that rising arrears and competition would keep pressure on margins and asset quality. ^[36]

Subsequent RBA rate cuts in 2025 have begun to ease some pressure on borrowers, but analysts still expect modest loan‑loss normalisation over the next few years rather than a return to the ultra‑benign credit environment of the late 2010s. ^[37]

Income vs valuation vs momentum: How does NAB stack up?

Putting the different strands together, NAB in early December 2025 looks like this:

Income
- Fully franked dividend yield around 4%, with a payout ratio in the low‑70% range and management signalling a desire to hold the payout near current levels while using surplus capital for growth rather than larger buybacks. ^[38]
Valuation
- Trading near A$40, about 11% below its 52‑week high and roughly 21–24% above the 52‑week low, NAB sits mid‑range on price but well above Morningstar’s A$33 fair‑value estimate. ^[39]
- For some brokers and research houses, this implies limited upside from here unless earnings growth accelerates beyond the mid‑single‑digit trajectory currently expected.
Balance sheet
- Capital, liquidity and funding metrics comfortably above regulatory minimums, with a CET1 ratio of 11.7%, leverage ratio near 4.9%, liquidity coverage ratio of 135% and net stable funding ratio of 116%. ^[40]
- External credit ratings at AA with Stable outlook reinforce the view of NAB as a low‑probability default risk within a strong sovereign environment. ^[41]
Momentum
- Short‑term technical indicators are skewed to “Sell”, with the stock trading below most key moving averages and scan‑based systems flagging it as part of a near‑term downtrend in financials. ^[42]

For investors, the resulting picture is deliberately mixed:

Long‑term, NAB remains a profitable, well‑capitalised, wide‑moat bank with a leading business‑lending franchise and a track record of paying fully franked dividends. ^[43]
Short‑term, the stock screens as overvalued on some fundamental models and weak on momentum, with earnings growth only modestly outpacing Australia’s nominal GDP. ^[44]

Whether NAB is a buy, hold or trim at current levels comes down to your own assumptions about:

How long margins can remain supported as rates fall,
How severe the next phase of credit normalisation will be, and
How much you value a franked ~4% yield from a major bank relative to other opportunities.