On December 3, 2025, National Bank of Canada (TSX: NA, OTC: NTIOF) reported strong fourth‑quarter and full‑year results, raised its common share dividend, and doubled down on its expansion strategy via major acquisitions. All of this comes with the stock trading near record highs and analysts increasingly split between “Buy” and “Hold.”
Below is a detailed look at today’s news, fresh forecasts and analyst views, and what they imply for National Bank of Canada stock in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Q4 2025 adjusted earnings beat: Adjusted net income rose about 25% year‑over‑year to C$1.16 billion, with adjusted EPS of C$2.82, well ahead of analyst expectations around C$2.62–2.63. [1]
- Headline profit and revenue surged: Reported net income for Q4 increased to roughly C$1.06 billion from C$955 million a year earlier, while revenue jumped about 24–26% to roughly C$3.7 billion on growth in every business segment. [2]
- Dividend raised by 6 cents: The quarterly common share dividend was increased from C$1.18 to C$1.24, a ~5.1% hike, payable February 1, 2026, to shareholders of record on December 29, 2025. [3]
- Stock near all‑time highs: National Bank shares closed at C$171.12 on December 2, 2025, up about 23% over the past 12 months and near a 52‑week high of C$171.55. [4]
- Valuation stretched vs. targets: Consensus 12‑month price targets cluster around C$160–C$163, implying limited upside or modest downside from current levels, depending on the source. [5]
- Analyst stance: between Hold and Buy: MarketBeat shows a “Hold” consensus for the TSX listing, while other aggregators show an overall “Buy” skew, with many analysts highlighting longer‑term upside from acquisitions but cautioning about full valuations. [6]
- Big acquisition story: 2025 results fully reflect the completed Canadian Western Bank (CWB) acquisition and a newly announced deal for Laurentian Bank’s retail and SME portfolios, positioning National Bank as a more national competitor beyond its historical Quebec base. [7]
Q4 2025 Results: A Big Beat Driven by Fee Businesses and CWB
Strong top‑ and bottom‑line growth
For the quarter ended October 31, 2025, National Bank reported:
- Reported net income: about C$1.06 billion, up ~11% from C$955 million in Q4 2024. [8]
- Reported diluted EPS:C$2.57, down slightly from C$2.66 a year ago as acquisition‑related costs from CWB weighed on GAAP earnings. [9]
- Adjusted net income: roughly C$1.16 billion, up about 25% year‑over‑year.
- Adjusted diluted EPS:C$2.82, an increase of roughly 9% and comfortably ahead of consensus estimates around C$2.62–2.63. [10]
- Revenue: approximately C$3.7 billion, up around 24–26% versus the prior year and above Street expectations near C$3.45 billion. [11]
Growth was broad‑based:
- Capital Markets net income climbed about 41% to C$432 million, with revenue up 38% on stronger equities, interest‑rate and corporate finance activity. [12]
- Wealth Management net income rose roughly 18% to C$258 million, helped by market gains, higher client activity and positive net flows. [13]
- Personal & Commercial banking benefitted heavily from the inclusion of CWB, which contributed significantly to a 29% jump in net interest income and a more than C$200 million increase in commercial revenues. [14]
CEO Laurent Ferreira highlighted that the bank met all its medium‑term financial objectives in 2025 while closing its largest‑ever acquisition, CWB, and entering 2026 with a broader national footprint and more diversified earnings mix. [15]
Higher provisions for credit losses – but still manageable
The flip side of the growth story is higher credit costs:
- Provisions for credit losses (PCL) in Q4 2025 rose to about C$244 million, up from C$162 million a year earlier. [16]
- The increase reflects:
This pattern matches the broader Canadian bank sector, where analysts had flagged rising loan‑loss provisions as a key theme for Q4 2025 amid concerns about consumer resilience, mortgage renewals and trade tensions. [19]
Dividend Hike: Yield Edges Toward 3%, Payout Still Conservative
New common share dividend
On the back of its Q4 print, National Bank’s board:
- Raised the quarterly common share dividend by 6 cents, from C$1.18 to C$1.24 per share.
- Set the new dividend for the quarter ending January 31, 2026, payable February 1, 2026, to shareholders of record on December 29, 2025. [20]
At the December 2 closing price of C$171.12, the new annualized dividend of C$4.96 implies a yield of roughly 2.9%, slightly above the previous forward yield of about 2.76%. [21]
Payout ratio and capital strength
Critically, the dividend hike comes from a position of balance‑sheet strength:
- The dividend payout ratio (on reported earnings) for fiscal 2025 stood at about 45.6%, up from 40.1% the prior year but still in a conservative range for a large Canadian bank. [22]
- The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio under Basel III was 13.8% at October 31, 2025, slightly above 13.7% a year earlier, even after the CWB acquisition. [23]
That combination — robust capital, sub‑50% payout and a yield near 3% — gives National Bank room to keep growing the dividend if earnings progress roughly as analysts expect.
How National Bank of Canada Stock Is Trading Now
Near record highs after a big year
By the close on December 2, 2025, National Bank stock traded at:
- Price: C$171.12
- 52‑week range:C$106.67–C$171.55
- 1‑year performance: about +23%
- Market cap: ~C$66.8 billion. [24]
Other data providers note that since January 2025, the shares are up close to 30%, with around a 4% gain over the past week as investors priced in strong Q4 results and sector‑wide optimism. [25]
Valuation: Premium but not extreme
On current numbers, the stock looks full but not wildly expensive:
- Trailing P/E: about 17x, based on trailing EPS of C$10.07. [26]
- Forward P/E: roughly 14.5x, using consensus forward earnings. [27]
- Using a book value per share around C$85, the stock trades at roughly 2.0x book value. [28]
For context, Reuters recently noted that the Big Six Canadian banks are trading at around 12.9x forward earnings on average, a sizeable premium to their 10‑year norm, after gaining roughly 32% year‑to‑date and outpacing the broader TSX. [29]
National Bank’s multiple is therefore above the group average, which helps explain why many analysts see limited upside from current levels even as they acknowledge strong execution.
Analyst Ratings and Stock Forecasts for 2026
Analyst views on National Bank of Canada after today’s results are broadly positive on fundamentals but cautious on valuation.
Consensus price targets
Different aggregators show slightly different numbers, but they tell a consistent story:
- ValueInvesting.io
- Average 12‑month target: ~C$160.22
- Range: C$148.47–C$180.60
- Implied move vs. ~C$169–171 share price: low‑single‑digit downside.
- Consensus rating:“Buy” from 22 analysts (mix of Buy, Hold and Strong Buy ratings). [30]
- StocksGuide
- Current price: C$171.12
- Average target: about C$159.63 based on 16 estimates, ~6–7% below the current price.
- Rating distribution: roughly 57% Buy, 38% Hold, 5% Sell, for an overall bullish tilt. [31]
- TradingView
- Average target: about C$163.46, with a range from roughly C$149 to C$183.
- Overall rating:“Buy” based on 15 analyst ratings in the last three months. [32]
- MarketBeat (TSX listing)
- Consensus rating:“Hold” based on 12 analysts (9 Hold, 3 Buy).
- Average target:C$150.77, implying around 12% downside from an assumed price of C$171.12 at the time of compilation. [33]
- MarketBeat (OTC: NTIOF)
- Shows a “Hold” consensus for the U.S. OTC listing as well, with a mix of Hold and Buy ratings. [34]
In short, most price targets sit below the current share price, but ratings skew between Hold and Buy. The market seems to believe National Bank is a high‑quality franchise with strong growth drivers, but not obviously cheap after its big 2025 rally.
Earnings and growth expectations
Analyst models imply solid but moderating growth:
- One forecast set sees revenue rising from about C$11.9 billion this year to C$14.2 billion next year, a gain of roughly 19%, with further mid‑single‑digit growth beyond that. [35]
- Consensus EPS is expected to grow from roughly C$10.7 to C$11.3–11.4 over the next year or so, implying mid‑single‑digit earnings growth off an already strong base. [36]
- TradingView notes that National Bank’s most recent EPS of C$2.82 beat estimates of C$2.62, and the next quarter’s EPS is expected to rise again to about C$2.85, with revenue forecast around C$3.57 billion. [37]
TipRanks’ AI‑driven “Spark” tool currently flags the stock as “Outperform”, citing strong profitability, an attractive dividend, and a relatively modest P/E, but warning that technical indicators suggest an overbought condition and that macro risks remain. [38]
Strategy and M&A: From Quebec Champion to National Contender
Canadian Western Bank: 2025’s transformational deal
National Bank completed its acquisition of Canadian Western Bank on February 3, 2025, consolidating CWB’s results from that date onward. [39]
Key impacts:
- The deal significantly boosted commercial banking, with CWB driving a large share of the 29% increase in net interest income and more than C$200 million of additional commercial revenues in Q4. [40]
- CWB added over C$45 billion in assets and nearly C$38 billion in liabilities, expanding National Bank’s footprint in Western Canada. [41]
- Management expects material revenue synergies and capital benefits as CWB loan portfolios are migrated to National Bank’s internal risk models, which should lower risk‑weighted assets and free up capital over time. [42]
Laurentian Bank retail & SME deal: the next leg
Beyond CWB, National Bank has now moved to buy Laurentian Bank of Canada’s retail and small‑business deposit and loan books in a three‑way transaction where Fairstone Bank acquires Laurentian’s shares for C$1.9 billion. [43]
According to Bloomberg reporting carried by Canadian Mortgage Trends:
- For National Bank, the deal is seen as “compelling” because it adds scale in Quebec and other core markets without taking on Laurentian’s branches, staff or technology stack. [44]
- Management expects C$200–250 million in revenue synergies from the transaction and believes some capital benefits from the CWB risk‑model migration should be realized by the end of fiscal 2026. [45]
Taken together, the CWB and Laurentian retail/SME deals mark a pivot from National Bank’s traditional regional focus toward a truly national challenger to the “Big Five” — with higher fee income, more diversified geography and a larger asset base.
Macro Backdrop: Slow Growth, Sticky Services Inflation
National Bank’s outlook is shaped by a Canadian economy that is sluggish but not in crisis:
- The Bank of Canada’s October 2025 Monetary Policy Report projects Canadian GDP growth averaging about 1.4% in 2026 and 2027, with inflation hovering around 2% over the forecast horizon. [46]
- National Bank’s own Monthly Economic Monitor (Canada) sees GDP growth of about 1.7% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, with services inflation remaining somewhat sticky and unemployment edging higher before stabilizing. [47]
In this environment:
- Loan growth is likely to remain modest, especially in consumer credit and residential mortgages.
- Credit quality will stay under close watch as households digest higher borrowing costs and trade tensions cloud the outlook.
- Fee‑driven revenues — wealth management, capital markets, and asset management — become even more important for earnings resilience, an area where National Bank just posted standout gains. [48]
Key Risks for National Bank of Canada Stock
Investors considering National Bank shares after today’s rally should weigh several risks:
- Valuation risk
- With the stock near record highs, trading around 17x trailing earnings and ~2x book, any earnings disappointment could trigger a sharp de‑rating, especially given that most price targets sit below the current share price. [49]
- Credit quality and provisions
- Q4 PCL rose more than 50% year‑over‑year to C$244 million. If economic growth undershoots forecasts or trade tensions intensify, loan losses could remain elevated or worsen, pressuring earnings. [50]
- Integration risk
- The successful integration of CWB and the planned Laurentian retail/SME portfolios is essential for delivering the anticipated revenue synergies and capital benefits. Execution missteps could erode margins or capital ratios. [51]
- Regulatory and macro uncertainty
- Canadian banks face a shifting regulatory landscape, ongoing housing‑market concerns and global trade frictions. These factors can impact capital requirements, loan appetite and investor sentiment. [52]
Is National Bank of Canada Stock a Buy, Hold or Sell After Q4 2025?
From a high‑level, non‑personal perspective:
- Fundamentals look strong
- Double‑digit adjusted earnings growth, robust revenue expansion across all segments, and a rising dividend all point to a well‑managed bank hitting its financial targets. [53]
- Dividend profile is attractive but not high‑yield
- A ~2.9% forward yield, mid‑40s payout ratio and strong capital give room for continued dividend growth — appealing for long‑term income investors who prioritize dividend safety over a very high yield. [54]
- Growth pipeline is compelling
- The CWB integration, the Laurentian retail/SME deal, and the scaling of wealth and asset‑management businesses give National Bank multiple levers for earnings growth and fee diversification into 2026 and beyond. [55]
- Valuation and technicals argue for caution
- With the stock near its 52‑week high, valuations at a premium to the broader Canadian bank group, and technical indicators showing overbought conditions, many analysts are understandably leaning toward “Hold” despite acknowledging the bank’s strengths. [56]
Bottom line:
- The consensus view after today’s results is that National Bank of Canada is a high‑quality franchise with solid growth prospects, but one that is largely priced for that quality after a strong 2025 rally.
- For more conservative investors, the stock increasingly looks like a core long‑term holding to accumulate selectively, particularly on pullbacks, rather than a deep‑value opportunity.
- As always, individual decisions should factor in your risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio diversification, and you may want to seek advice from a licensed financial professional before making investment moves.
References
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