National Grid plc (NG.) Stock Outlook 2026: Share Price, Dividend, New CEO and £60bn Grid Plan

National Grid plc is ending 2025 in a very “on-brand” way for a regulated utility: quietly near its 52‑week high, raising and spending astonishing sums of money, and sitting at the centre of almost every big energy-transition argument in the UK and US.

As of 3 December 2025, investors are weighing a new CEO, a completed LNG divestment, record grid investment, and a still‑healthy dividend against rising debt, regulatory scrutiny and a share price that is no longer obviously cheap.

Below is a detailed look at the latest news, forecasts and analyses around National Grid stock (LSE: NG., NYSE: NGG) as of today.

Where the National Grid share price stands now

On the London Stock Exchange, National Grid closed on 2 December 2025 at 1,150.5p, up 0.57% on the day, after trading between 1,145.5p and 1,160p. ^[1]

That puts the stock:

Roughly in the upper part of its 52‑week trading range of about 910p–1,184p. ^[2]
Around the level used to set the latest scrip dividend reference price (1,130.4p). ^[3]
About mid‑teens percent higher than a year ago, according to price-history data. ^[4]

In New York, the NGG ADR closed on 2 December at $75.64, with pre‑market trading on 3 December ticking modestly higher. ^[5]

In other words: National Grid is not a beaten‑up turnaround story. It’s a regulated giant trading close to its recent highs, with investors now debating how much of its growth story is already in the price.

Latest results: record grid spending and steady EPS growth

National Grid’s most recent formal update was its 2025/26 half‑year results, published in early November:

Underlying operating profit for continuing operations rose 13% year‑on‑year to £2.29bn, slightly ahead of consensus. ^[6]
Underlying EPS increased 6% at constant currency to 29.8p for the half. ^[7]
Capital investment hit £5.05bn in the first half alone (up 12%), with management guiding to over £11bn for the full year—another record. ^[8]
Net debt stood at £41.8bn at 30 September 2025, £0.5bn higher than at the March year‑end, even after applying roughly £1.5bn of proceeds from the US renewables sale. ^[9]

Reuters summarised the H1 story as “profit slightly above expectations, driven by higher UK transmission revenues and strong regulated performance,” with the group re‑affirming its medium‑term guidance of 6–8% annual EPS growth from a FY2024/25 baseline. ^[10]

Operationally, the group is in full “build the future grid” mode:

Heavy spend on Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investment (ASTI) projects and the London Power Tunnels 2 upgrade in the UK. ^[11]
Increased capex in New York and Massachusetts for smart meters, leak‑prone pipe replacement and capacity upgrades. ^[12]

The near‑term picture: earnings are growing steadily rather than explosively, but the regulated asset base is compounding at high single digits thanks to that capex, which underpins future revenue and EPS.

Strategic pivot: rights issue, renewables exit and Grain LNG sale

The balance sheet and portfolio look very different today than they did two years ago.

7‑for‑24 rights issue and £60bn capex plan

In May 2024, National Grid launched a 7‑for‑24 rights issue at 645p, aiming to raise about £7bn gross (c.£6.8bn net). ^[13]

The accompanying five‑year framework set out:

Around £60bn of capital investment in FY2025–FY2029, almost doubling the prior five‑year period. ^[14]
A focus on UK and US electricity transmission and distribution, with gas and non‑core businesses playing supporting roles.

Full‑year FY2024/25 results later confirmed record annual capex of £9.85bn, up 20% year‑on‑year, driving regulated asset growth of roughly 9–10.5%. ^[15]

The rights issue effectively pre‑funded a chunk of this programme, but it also diluted existing shareholders and raised the bar for future returns.

Sale of US onshore renewables

As part of a promised “asset rotation,” National Grid agreed in February 2025 to sell its US onshore renewables arm, National Grid Renewables, to Brookfield Asset Management and partners for an enterprise value of about $1.735bn. ^[16]

The business included roughly 1.8 GW of operating projects and 1.3 GW under construction across solar, onshore wind and storage. ^[17]

The sale has now completed, with proceeds being used to reduce net debt and fund regulated capex rather than chase more merchant renewables exposure. ^[18]

Completion of Grain LNG divestment

On 28 November 2025, National Grid completed the sale of its Grain LNG terminal in Kent to a consortium led by Centrica and Energy Capital Partners. ^[19]

Various disclosures put the enterprise value at roughly £1.5bn. TS2 Tech+1
The transaction removes a large but non‑core asset and further concentrates the group on regulated wires and pipes.

Taken together, the rights issue plus disposals are essentially a balance‑sheet swap: equity and asset sales in exchange for a bigger, greener, regulated asset base—and a lot more execution risk.

Leadership change: Zoë Yujnovich takes over

2025 is also a changing‑of‑the‑guard year.

Long‑time CEO John Pettigrew retires from the board on 16 November 2025. ^[20]
Zoë Yujnovich, formerly Shell’s integrated gas and upstream director and a non‑executive at Unilever, joined the board as CEO‑designate on 1 September 2025 and became Chief Executive on 17 November 2025. ^[21]

National Grid and independent commentary have stressed her experience in:

Running large, capital‑intensive, multi‑jurisdictional energy portfolios.
Navigating complex regulatory frameworks.
Delivering major projects—precisely what the £60bn plan requires. ^[22]

Investors will be watching early signals on:

How she balances UK vs US growth.
Whether further portfolio simplification is on the table.
How aggressively management leans into new technologies like AI to manage the grid and its risks.

AI, wildfire risk and the energy‑transition backdrop

The most headline‑grabbing piece of brand new news is actually not about dividends or rights issues, but wildfires and artificial intelligence.

On 2 December 2025, National Grid announced a collaboration with Rhizome, a climate‑resilience planning platform, to deploy its AI‑driven “gridFIRM” tool across the company’s networks in Massachusetts, New York and the UK. ^[23]

The system will:

Identify high‑risk areas where utility assets could ignite wildfires.
Quantify and prioritise wildfire risks on transmission and distribution lines.
Support “multi‑value” mitigation plans that balance safety, reliability and cost. ^[24]

The backdrop here matters. AI‑heavy data centres, electrified transport and heat pumps are driving unusually strong electricity demand growth expectations through 2030, which in turn requires vast new grid infrastructure and better risk management. ^[25]

At the same time, National Grid has been under the microscope over network resilience and maintenance after incidents such as the North Hyde substation fire that temporarily shut Heathrow earlier this year. UK regulator Ofgem has placed aspects of the company’s transmission maintenance under special monitoring and is investigating certain asset‑health issues. ^[26]

Add to that the coming RIIO‑3 price‑control period (the next regulatory framework for UK networks). Fitch Ratings recently highlighted that UK transmission and distribution operators face an “unprecedented investment surge” through this transition, and that required equity will depend heavily on Ofgem’s final decisions. ^[27]

So the gridFIRM announcement is not just “AI buzzword bingo”—it’s a sign that National Grid is trying to show regulators, politicians and investors that it is on the front foot on resilience, just as its capex and political visibility spike.

Dividend profile: about 4% yield with inflation‑linked ambition

Income is still a big part of the National Grid story.

Latest dividend moves

For 2025/26, the board has:

Declared an interim dividend of 16.35p per share (and $1.0657 per ADR), up about 3% year‑on‑year. ^[28]
Set the ex‑dividend date for ordinary shares at 20 November 2025, with a record date of 21 November and payment on 13 January 2026. ^[29]
Offered a scrip dividend alternative, with a reference price of 1,130.40p, allowing investors to take new shares instead of cash. ^[30]

For FY2024/25, the group paid a total dividend of 46.72p per share (15.84p interim and 30.88p final). ^[31]

At a share price around 1,150p, that implies a trailing yield of roughly 4.0–4.2%, depending on which precise trailing period you use. TS2 Tech+2Barclays Research Centre+2

Policy: inflation‑linked growth

National Grid’s stated policy is to grow the dividend per share in line with UK CPIH inflation over the medium term, effectively targeting a roughly “real” flat dividend. ^[32]

That is backed by management’s 6–8% EPS growth guidance and a regulated asset base that is expanding roughly 9–10% per year. ^[33]

For income‑oriented investors, the pitch is:

A mid‑single‑digit EPS growth rate.
An inflation‑linked dividend starting around 4% yield.
Supported (in theory) by long‑lived regulated assets and investment‑grade credit ratings.

Analyst forecasts and valuation models

Depending on which set of experts you listen to, National Grid is either slightly undervalued, about fairly valued, or materially undervalued.

Sell‑side price targets

Key consensus markers for the London‑listed stock:

Investing.com compiles forecasts from 15 analysts, giving an average 12‑month target of ~1,180p, with a range of 1,070–1,300p and an overall rating of “Buy” (9 Buys, 5 Holds, 1 Sell). ^[34]
ValueInvesting.io and AlphaSpread aggregate a slightly larger analyst set and show an average target around 1,210–1,225p, implying mid‑single‑digit upside from current levels. ^[35]

For the NGG ADR, Zacks reports an average short‑term target of about $77.15, with a range from around $70 to the low $80s, based on two covering analysts. ^[36]

Intrinsic value and quantitative models

Valuation‑model sites are more opinionated—and they don’t all agree with each other:

AlphaSpread’s blended DCF/relative model estimates intrinsic value at roughly 1,573p, about 27% above the recent 1,146.5p trading price. ^[37]
ValueInvesting.io’s Peter Lynch‑style “fair value” calculation suggests fair value around 1,456p, also implying ~27% upside. ^[38]
The same site’s separate DCF model, however, spits out a notoriously conservative intrinsic‑value range that would classify the shares as significantly overvalued—a good reminder that models are hypersensitive to growth and discount‑rate assumptions. ^[39]
Simply Wall St’s fair‑PE methodology finds NG.’s current P/E around 19.8x versus a “fair” multiple in the low‑20s, labelling the shares “good value” relative to their growth profile rather than outright cheap. ^[40]

On the US side, Zacks has at times in 2025 rated NGG a Rank #1 (Strong Buy) on the back of rising earnings estimates and a three‑to‑five‑year EPS growth rate of about 8–9%, although more recent style‑score pages show a more cautious stance. ^[41]

The thread running through most of these: National Grid no longer screens as obviously cheap, but many models still see modest to double‑digit upside over 12 months if management hits its growth and capex targets.

Technical picture and short‑term sentiment

For traders staring at candlesticks instead of capex tables, the set‑up looks a bit different.

London listing (NG.)

Technical service StockInvest.us upgraded NG. from a “Sell candidate” to a “Buy candidate” on 2 December after the latest bounce: ^[42]

It notes the stock sits in the middle of a strong short‑term rising trend, with its AI model projecting around 15% upside over the next three months, and a 90% probability of ending that period between 1,297p and 1,392p.
At the same time, it flags falling volume on rising prices, MACD sell signals, and a prior pivot‑top sell signal from mid‑November—classic caution lights for momentum traders. ^[43]

US ADR (NGG)

Investor’s Business Daily has steadily upgraded the Relative Strength (RS) Rating on NGG during 2025:

RS climbed into the low‑80s in November, putting the stock ahead of most of the market on 12‑month price performance. ^[44]
Despite that, IBD notes that NGG is not currently near a classic “buy point”, advising technically minded investors to wait for a fresh base or pullback. ^[45]

The quick read: technicals broadly agree with fundamentals—this has been a strong performer in 2025, and while the near‑term trend is still up, the easy money from buying the dip in 2024/early‑2025 has probably already been made.

Balance sheet and credit: still solid, but leveraged

All this investment is not free.

Net debt at £41.8bn is high in absolute terms, and rising as capex outpaces internal cash flow plus disposals. ^[46]
At FY2024/25 year‑end, National Grid reported retained cash flow to adjusted net debt of 9.8% and emphasised its commitment to maintaining a strong investment‑grade profile. ^[47]
Senior unsecured ratings for the holding company are around Baa2/BBB/BBB (Moody’s/S&P/Fitch), comfortably investment grade but not extravagant. ^[48]

Those ratings—and the regulators who indirectly underwrite them—are central to the investment case. A serious misstep (for example, in project delivery or maintenance) could raise financing costs just as the capex curve steepens.

Key risks investors are watching

As of 3 December 2025, several themes dominate the risk discussion:

Leverage and interest rates
- High and rising net debt against a backdrop of still‑elevated interest rates means more cash flow is spoken for by bondholders. ^[49]
Execution risk on the £60bn programme
- Projects like offshore HVDC links (Eastern Green Links), London Power Tunnels and major US upgrades carry classic megaproject risks: cost overruns, delays and supply‑chain squeezes. ^[50]
Regulatory and political risk
- Ofgem’s increased scrutiny of transmission maintenance and asset health, plus RIIO‑3 negotiations, could press down allowed returns if public anger over bills flares up again. ^[51]
- In the US, multi‑year rate plans in New York and Massachusetts are broadly supportive but periodically reopened, and decarbonisation politics can change quickly. ^[52]
Operational and climate risk
- Events like the Heathrow‑linked substation fire and rising wildfire risk in the Northeast highlight how climate‑driven extremes can disrupt operations and reputations. ^[53]
Valuation risk after a strong run
- With the stock near its 12‑month highs and many fair‑value estimates clustering not far above the current price, future returns rely more on continued flawless execution than on starting from a bargain valuation. ^[54]

Bottom line: how does National Grid look heading into 2026?

Put all this together and, as of early December 2025, National Grid looks like a classic “growth utility” rather than a sleepy bond proxy:

Pros
- Defensive, regulated cash flows in the UK and US.
- A massive, policy‑backed grid‑investment runway tied to electrification and AI‑driven demand. ^[55]
- A ~4% dividend yield, with an explicit aim to track inflation. ^[56]
- Investment‑grade ratings and, so far, supportive regulatory decisions. ^[57]
Cons
- Leverage that will keep creeping up if execution or disposals disappoint. ^[58]
- Regulatory and political risk in two different jurisdictions, both facing energy‑transition sticker shock. ^[59]
- A share price already reflecting a lot of the good news, with consensus upside in the mid‑single digits rather than the big discounts seen after the 2022–23 sell‑off. ^[60]

For long‑term investors who are comfortable with regulated utilities, National Grid now looks less like a value play and more like a moderate‑growth, income‑generating infrastructure platform: you’re effectively being paid a mid‑single‑digit cash yield to fund and own a slice of the future electric grid.

For short‑term traders, the combination of strong relative strength, recent technical buy signals and stretched valuations makes this more of a “trend is your friend until it isn’t” situation.

Either way, the stock’s story over the next few years will live or die on three things: how smoothly that £60bn is deployed, how generous regulators remain, and whether the new CEO can keep all the political, financial and physical grid plates spinning at once.