London — 16 December 2025. National Grid plc is back in focus for investors as regulators shape the next phase of Britain’s electricity-transmission buildout, while demand growth narratives—from renewables integration to data-centre and AI-driven load—continue to reshape how “defensive” utility stocks are priced.
Below is a roundup of the most relevant news, company updates, analyst forecasts, and market commentary available as of 16.12.2025, plus the key catalysts investors are tracking into 2026.
National Grid share price today: where the stock stands on 16 December 2025
National Grid shares on the London market were indicated around 1,128p at the close (Hargreaves Lansdown shows a 1,128.0p sell / 1,128.5p buy quote, with the previous close at 1,126.0p). The same source lists a market capitalisation of about £55.9bn, a P/E ratio of ~20.25, and a trailing dividend yield around 4.15%. [1]
Price data providers also show the stock’s 52‑week range stretching from roughly 909.8p to 1,183.5p, with the day’s range and open captured around the low‑1,100s pence area. [2]
For US-based investors tracking the ADR, National Grid ADR (NYSE: NGG) traded around $76.03 in the latest update available on 16 December (with an intraday high near $76.12 and low near $75.36).
What’s driving National Grid stock right now
1) Ofgem’s UK grid upgrade plan: bigger investment, higher bill impact
One of the biggest near-term swing factors for National Grid’s UK narrative is the regulator’s stance on allowed spending and the consumer bill impact that follows.
In early December, Reuters reported that UK regulator Ofgem approved a 28bn‑pound investment package over five years as part of an energy system upgrade—an amount higher than its earlier provisional assessment—while also warning the plan is expected to add about £108 to consumer bills by 2031. Importantly for National Grid’s investment case, Reuters noted the company welcomed the decision, arguing it recognises the need for significant investment as power transport volumes are expected to double. [3]
Why it matters for the stock: in a regulated utility, the long-run value often comes down to (1) how much capex is allowed into the regulatory asset base, (2) what return is permitted on that asset base, and (3) whether execution risk (delivery, supply chain, planning consent) stays contained.
2) RIIO‑T3 Final Determination: a 6.12% real allowed cost of equity (at 60% gearing)
National Grid also confirmed that Ofgem published its Final Determination for the RIIO‑T3 framework covering National Grid Electricity Transmission from April 2026 to March 2031. In its announcement (released via a US Form 6‑K and LSE announcement), National Grid highlighted that the package includes a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% gearing.
The company said it welcomes Ofgem’s recognition of the need for significant investment, but will now review the full determination to judge whether the overall framework is “investable and workable,” with particular attention on the incentive framework and totex mechanisms (how efficiently incurred investment costs are recovered). It also flagged a process timetable: licence modifications are expected to be consulted on, with an Ofgem licence decision expected in February 2026, and National Grid anticipating a formal response in early March 2026. [4]
Why it matters for the stock: RIIO‑T3 effectively sets the “rules of the game” for a core UK earnings engine. Even small differences in allowed return assumptions can meaningfully affect long-duration cash flows.
3) “Superhighway” acceleration: early investment for key electricity links
A separate but related UK headline is the push to accelerate major electricity transmission links to reduce grid bottlenecks and the cost of curtailing renewable generation.
The Guardian reported that Ofgem approved early investment in three major UK electricity “superhighways,” including early investment allowances for Eastern Green Link subsea power cables and the GWNC electricity link (Grimsby–Walpole). The report said these projects aim to reduce congestion costs (including payments to generators to reduce output when the grid is overloaded), with Ofgem suggesting consumers could be £3bn to £6bn better off compared with later delivery timelines—though with higher upfront cost pressures on bills. The Guardian also said National Grid, SSE and Scottish Power would be allowed to begin early investment on certain links under Ofgem’s plans. [5]
Why it matters for the stock: accelerating spend can pull forward regulated asset growth, but it also increases delivery pressure—particularly on supply chain capacity and planning approvals.
4) Sea Link contracts: project execution becomes more visible
Execution is increasingly central to the National Grid equity story, and the company has been highlighting contract awards and supply chain progress.
National Grid said it signed two contracts for Sea Link, described as a proposed 140km subsea electricity connection intended to deliver power between Kent and Suffolk. The company stated Siemens Energy will be appointed to build the project’s converter stations, while Sumitomo Electric Industries will supply the high‑voltage cable. [6]
Why it matters for the stock: for utilities in an investment “supercycle,” investors increasingly demand proof that capital programmes are not only authorised, but contractable and buildable on schedule.
5) Grain LNG sale completed: portfolio continues shifting toward networks
National Grid has been reshaping its portfolio to focus on regulated networks, and late November brought a key milestone.
The company announced it completed the sale of its Grain LNG business to a consortium comprising Centrica plc and Energy Capital Partners. [7]
Centrica, in its own completion statement, described the transaction as being completed at an enterprise value of £1.5bn, and outlined funding elements including project finance debt and the equity investment share. [8]
Why it matters for the stock: disposals can reduce complexity, help fund capex, and sharpen the “regulated networks” investment thesis. They also affect how investors model earnings mix, leverage and dividend capacity.
Financial performance and strategy: what National Grid told investors in its latest results
National Grid’s Half Year Results 2025/26 presentation (6 November 2025) frames the investment case around three pillars: scale of investment, regulated asset growth, and a dividend policy linked to inflation.
Big-picture investment plan and targets
In the presentation, National Grid highlighted an FY2025–FY2029 capital investment plan of about £60bn (with about £51bn labelled “green”), alongside an estimated ~10% group asset growth CAGR, and 6–8% underlying EPS CAGR (from an FY25 baseline of 73.3p). It also reiterated a dividend ambition to grow the dividend per share in line with UK CPIH. [9]
Half-year numbers investors keep citing
In the same deck, the company presented “strong financial performance” indicators for the half year, including:
- Underlying operating profit:£2,292m (up 13%)
- Underlying EPS:29.8p (up 6%)
- Capital investment:£5,052m (up 12%)
- Interim dividend:16.35p (up 3.2%, stated as in line with policy)
Reuters also reported that first-half profit was slightly ahead of market expectations and that National Grid reaffirmed its medium-term outlook for 6–8% compounded annual underlying EPS growth from the 2024/25 baseline. [11]
Load growth and “AI infrastructure” enters the narrative
National Grid’s results presentation also explicitly referenced the UK load growth theme. It stated it is working with government and industry on AI infrastructure and flagged “readiness to connect up to 19GW of additional demand” in its RIIO‑T3 plan, with around half attributed to data centres. [12]
Investor takeaway: National Grid is increasingly being valued not just as a “bond proxy,” but as a regulated platform that could participate in structural demand growth—if regulators keep frameworks investable and delivery keeps pace.
CEO succession: leadership transition already mapped to mid-November 2025
Leadership stability and execution credibility matter more when capex plans expand.
National Grid announced earlier in 2025 that John Pettigrew would remain Chief Executive until 16 November 2025, with a handover plan in place. [13]
Reuters, reporting on the half-year results, noted that the half-year report was set to be the last earnings under Pettigrew as he prepared to step down later in November and hand over to Zoë Yujnovich. [14]
Governance update: audit tender process concluded
While not usually a share-price catalyst on its own, governance updates can matter for long-term institutional holders.
In an 11 December 2025 RNS, National Grid said that after a formal competitive audit tender led by the Audit & Risk Committee, the Board approved a proposed re‑appointment of Deloitte LLP as external auditor to take effect from the financial year ending 31 March 2028, subject to shareholder approval at the 2027 AGM. Deloitte would continue as auditor for FY ending 31 March 2026 and, subject to approval, 31 March 2027. [15]
Analyst forecasts for National Grid stock: ratings, upgrades, and price targets
Consensus targets: roughly low‑1,200s pence in many datasets
Different databases show different coverage counts, but the headline direction is similar: many analyst datasets sit in the low‑1,200s pence area for the next 12 months.
- MarketBeat shows a consensus price target of 1,225 GBX, with a high of 1,250 and a low of 1,200, and a consensus rating of “Buy” (based on two analysts in its dataset). [16]
- ValueInvesting.io’s estimates page shows an average forecast around 1,220 with a broader range and a “BUY” consensus in its dataset (it cites 24 analysts). [17]
Important context: “consensus” depends heavily on which brokers a platform includes and how recently they updated. Treat price targets as scenario markers, not precision forecasts.
Recent broker activity: initiations and reiterations in December
MarketScreener’s running feed highlights several recent analyst actions, including:
- Morgan Stanley initiating with an Overweight (Dec 12)
- JP Morgan with a Buy rating (Dec 12)
- Bernstein issuing a Buy (Dec 11)
In other words: into mid‑December, the analyst tape is generally constructive, even as the stock has already had a strong run over the past year.
Dividend outlook: what income investors should watch
National Grid remains widely owned for income, but the dividend story is increasingly tied to inflation dynamics and the capex/financing cycle.
Hargreaves Lansdown lists an interim dividend of 16.35p, with an ex‑dividend date of 20 November 2025 and a payment date of 13 January 2026. It also lists the most recent final dividend at 30.88p (paid July 2025). [19]
Separately, in its results presentation, National Grid reiterated its policy aim to grow the dividend per share in line with UK CPIH. [20]
What that means in practice:
- If inflation stays elevated, dividend growth may look better in nominal terms—but funding costs can also rise.
- If inflation falls quickly, dividend growth may moderate, but so could parts of the cost and rate pressure in financing.
The wider market narrative: why “dull utilities” are being reframed
A key reason utilities have been re-rated globally is the belief that electricity networks are entering a multi-year investment cycle.
In a Reuters Breakingviews column this week, the author argued that utilities are being recast as potential “growth” vehicles thanks to a mix of grid investment, the green transition, and rapidly rising power demand tied to AI and data centres, citing forecasts such as strong growth in global data-centre power consumption through 2030. [21]
National Grid’s own commentary around UK load growth and data centres (and its readiness-to-connect figure) dovetails with that macro framing. [22]
Key risks for National Grid investors in late 2025
Even for a regulated utility, the next 12–18 months contain real swing factors:
- Regulatory “investability” vs. political pressure
Ofgem’s framework must balance consumer bills with capital attraction. The regulator has already flagged bill impacts from grid upgrades, which can sharpen political scrutiny. [23] - RIIO‑T3 implementation details
The headline allowed cost of equity is only part of the story; incentive design and cost recovery mechanics can materially change realised returns. National Grid itself highlighted incentives and totex mechanisms as key review areas. [24] - Delivery and supply-chain execution
Contract awards like Sea Link help de-risk procurement, but major programmes still face construction, permitting, and timeline risks. [25] - Financing and interest-rate sensitivity
Large capex programmes require sustained access to attractive funding. Even with regulated protections, rate environments matter. - Currency and US regulatory exposure
National Grid operates in the US as well as the UK, so FX and US regulatory outcomes can influence reported metrics and sentiment. (National Grid also notes significant parts of its five‑year investment plan being approved within US rate cases.) [26]
What to watch next: near-term catalysts into early 2026
If you’re following National Grid stock closely, these are the practical “next dates” and decision points:
- RIIO‑T3 licence modification consultation and Ofgem decision timeline: Ofgem licence decision expected February 2026, with National Grid anticipating a response in early March 2026. [27]
- Interim dividend payment: scheduled for 13 January 2026 (per HL). [28]
- Ongoing capex milestones: additional contract awards and progress updates on UK strategic projects as procurement and delivery accelerate (Sea Link being one of the headline examples in December). [29]
Bottom line on National Grid plc stock as of 16.12.2025
As of 16 December 2025, National Grid’s equity story is being shaped by a clear set of forces:
- A UK policy and regulatory backdrop that is approving large grid investment, but also highlighting bill impacts. [30]
- A pivotal RIIO‑T3 reset with an announced 6.12% real allowed cost of equity—and crucial details still to be finalised in licence modifications. [31]
- A strategy anchored in a multi-year £60bn investment plan and 6–8% underlying EPS CAGR ambition, with dividends guided to track UK CPIH. [32]
- A market that is increasingly pricing utilities through the lens of electrification, renewables integration, and data-centre demand growth, rather than pure defensiveness. [33]
For investors, the near-term question is less “Is National Grid stable?” and more: Can it convert an unprecedented investment cycle into predictable, globally competitive regulated returns—without execution slippage or political/regulatory backlash?
References
1. www.hl.co.uk, 2. www.hl.co.uk, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.stocktitan.net, 5. www.theguardian.com, 6. www.nationalgrid.com, 7. www.investegate.co.uk, 8. www.centrica.com, 9. www.nationalgrid.com, 10. www.nationalgrid.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.nationalgrid.com, 13. www.investegate.co.uk, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. valueinvesting.io, 18. www.marketscreener.com, 19. www.hl.co.uk, 20. www.nationalgrid.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.nationalgrid.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.stocktitan.net, 25. www.nationalgrid.com, 26. www.nationalgrid.com, 27. www.stocktitan.net, 28. www.hl.co.uk, 29. www.nationalgrid.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.stocktitan.net, 32. www.nationalgrid.com, 33. www.reuters.com
