National Grid Share Price Dips as Ofgem Confirms 6.12% Return: Latest NG. Stock News, Dividend and 2026 Forecasts

National Grid plc (LSE: NG., NYSE: NGG) is back under the spotlight on 4 December 2025 after the UK energy regulator Ofgem signed off its next transmission price-control package, setting the terms under which the company will earn returns on billions of pounds of new grid investment over the coming decade.

The decision lands just weeks after National Grid reported record half‑year spending, completed a major LNG disposal, and handed the reins to a new chief executive – all while its shares trade close to 12‑month highs.

National Grid share price today: NG. and NGG near the top of their ranges

On Thursday, National Grid’s London‑listed shares traded around the mid‑£11s, modestly lower on the day, after Ofgem’s RIIO‑T3 “Final Determination” hit the wires. Intraday data from London brokers and market platforms show the stock changing hands roughly 0.5–1% below Wednesday’s close, with the price hovering near 1,135–1,145p. That keeps NG. within touching distance of its 52‑week high of about 1,183p, and well above its year low around 910p. ^[1]

On the US side, the NGG ADR recently traded at $76.49, giving National Grid a US‑dollar market capitalisation of roughly $76 billion, according to Angel One’s live quote data. ^[2] Over the past year, that ADR price has climbed more than 22%, while the London line has delivered a similar double‑digit total return once dividends are included. ^[3]

Valuation metrics look like a classic “quality utility at a full-ish price”:

Trailing P/E ratio around 19–20x for both NG. and NGG, versus National Grid’s four‑year average in the low‑teens. ^[4]
Dividend yield just over 4% on the London line, based on the last full‑year payout. ^[5]

In other words, this is no longer a beaten‑up defensive; it’s a regulated giant priced like investors already believe the growth story.

Ofgem’s RIIO‑T3 decision: 6.12% allowed return and a £28bn grid upgrade

The main piece of new news for National Grid today is Ofgem’s final word on RIIO‑T3 – the next price‑control regime for UK electricity transmission, running from April 2026 to March 2031.

From National Grid’s own statement and Ofgem‑related coverage: ^[6]

Ofgem has approved around £28 billion of initial investment across Great Britain’s gas and electricity networks over the first five years of the new framework – the opening slice of what could be £90bn of spending by 2031.
For National Grid Electricity Transmission (NGET), Ofgem is proposing a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% gearing. That’s the rate of return regulators think is fair for shareholders on the regulated asset base.
Roughly £10.3bn of the £28bn package is earmarked for high‑voltage electricity infrastructure, including upgrades to move power from wind-heavy northern regions to demand centres in the Midlands and the south. The rest goes to gas networks.
Ofgem estimates the gross impact of the programme will lift the typical household’s energy bill by about £108 a year by 2031, but expects system efficiencies and lower payments to curtailed wind farms to cut that to a net increase of roughly £30 a year – under £3 a month.

National Grid’s response is cautiously welcoming. The company says it “welcomes Ofgem’s recognition of the need for significant investment” to nearly double the amount of power that can be shifted around the country, but stresses that it will now comb through the detail to judge whether the package is “investable and workable”, including:

The incentive framework for high‑performing networks.
Totex (total expenditure) mechanisms to ensure transmission owners can recover efficient costs while building at the pace government and customers expect. ^[7]

For equity investors, the headline 6.12% real return looks broadly supportive given today’s interest‑rate backdrop, and is above the cost‑of‑equity allowances seen in some continental European regimes. The market reaction – a small share‑price dip rather than a plunge – suggests the determination landed somewhere between “as expected” and “slightly constructive”, but full verdicts will only come once analysts ingest the several‑hundred‑page Ofgem documents. ^[8]

Strategy and results: £60bn grid plan, record capex and portfolio reshaping

Today’s regulatory news sits on top of a very busy two‑year strategic pivot.

Record half‑year numbers and upgraded EPS guidance

In early November, National Grid reported 2025/26 half‑year results that showed earnings and investment still marching upwards: ^[9]

Underlying operating profit from continuing operations rose about 13% year‑on‑year to £2.29bn.
Underlying EPS increased 6% at constant currency to 29.8p for the half.
Capital investment hit roughly £5.05bn in six months, up about 12%, with management guiding to over £11bn in capex for the full year – another record.
Net debt stood at around £41.8bn as of 30 September 2025, modestly higher than at the March year‑end even after applying proceeds from asset disposals.

In its formal guidance, the group reiterated a five‑year capital investment plan of about £60bn between FY2024/25 and FY2028/29, of which roughly £51bn qualifies as “green” under the EU taxonomy. It expects: ^[10]

Regulated asset base (RAB) growth around 10% per year, taking group assets towards £100bn by 2029.
Underlying EPS growth of 6–8% a year from a FY2024/25 baseline of 73.3p.
A dividend per share growing in line with UK CPIH inflation, maintaining a “real” flat payout profile.

Geographically, the planned £60bn spend breaks down roughly as: ^[11]

~£23bn in UK Electricity Transmission.
~£8bn in UK Electricity Distribution.
~£17bn in New York and ~£11bn in New England over five years, largely on grid upgrades, smart meters and gas‑mains replacement.
Around £1bn in National Grid Ventures, mainly to maintain existing interconnectors.

Rights issue, renewables exit and Grain LNG sale

To help fund this acceleration, National Grid has been reshaping both its balance sheet and portfolio: TechStock²+1

In May 2024, the company carried out a 7‑for‑24 rights issue at 645p, raising roughly £7bn gross to support the capex surge and keep credit metrics in investment‑grade territory.
In February 2025, it agreed to sell its US onshore renewables business (National Grid Renewables) to a Brookfield‑led consortium for an enterprise value of about $1.7bn, a deal now completed, with proceeds earmarked for debt reduction and regulated grid investment. TechStock²+1
On 28 November 2025, National Grid completed the sale of Grain LNG, a large LNG terminal in Kent, to a consortium including Centrica and Energy Capital Partners, at a reported enterprise value of roughly £1.5–1.6bn. TechStock²+1

The net effect is a sharper focus on relatively predictable regulated transmission and distribution, with fewer merchant‑style exposures – but financed by a higher equity base and still‑rising leverage.

New CEO and AI‑powered wildfire initiative: execution and resilience in focus

Leadership handover to Zoë Yujnovich

2025 is also a passing‑of‑the‑torch year at the top of the company.

Long‑time CEO John Pettigrew stepped down from the board on 16 November 2025.
Zoë Yujnovich, previously a senior executive at Shell responsible for large, capital‑intensive upstream and gas businesses, joined as CEO‑designate on 1 September and became Chief Executive on 17 November 2025. TechStock²

Her CV – running multi‑jurisdiction energy portfolios, negotiating with regulators and delivering megaprojects – is exactly the skill‑set National Grid needs as it tries to execute a £60bn grid plan under intense political and public scrutiny. Market commentary so far frames her role as evolution not revolution, with an emphasis on delivery, safety and stakeholder management rather than a radical strategic pivot. TechStock²

AI against wildfires

On 2 December 2025, National Grid’s US arm announced a collaboration with climate‑resilience platform Rhizome to roll out an AI‑driven tool called gridFIRM across parts of its networks in Massachusetts and Upstate New York. ^[12]

The system is designed to:

Map locations where utility assets could pose heightened wildfire ignition risk.
Quantify those risks and prioritise mitigation projects.
Help planners weigh safety, reliability and cost when deciding which sections of network to upgrade or reroute.

This comes as wildfire risk creeps eastward and as electrification plus AI data‑centre growth push up demand for highly reliable grids. The initiative has been highlighted in technology and smart‑city trade press as an example of utilities using AI for climate‑risk management rather than just customer analytics. ^[13]

Heathrow, North Hyde and regulatory investigations

Resilience is not just a theoretical issue. In March 2025, a fire at National Grid’s North Hyde substation near Heathrow caused a major power outage and forced the airport to suspend operations for nearly a day.

Subsequent investigations by the National Energy System Operator (NESO) and Ofgem concluded that the incident was caused by a “preventable” technical fault in a transformer, with moisture ingress in a bushing identified years earlier but not fully addressed. ^[14]

Ofgem has:

Opened a formal enforcement investigation into National Grid Electricity Transmission’s compliance with licence conditions and asset‑maintenance obligations.
Commissioned an independent audit of NGET’s most critical assets to determine if the failures at North Hyde were isolated or symptomatic of wider issues. ^[15]

National Grid says it is cooperating with the probes and accelerating asset‑health and safety programmes. From an equity perspective, the Heathrow incident and ensuing investigations add a layer of headline and regulatory risk at exactly the moment the group is asking regulators and investors to back a once‑in‑a‑generation capex ramp‑up.

On top of that, several US law firms – including Rosen Law Firm and the Law Offices of Howard G. Smith – have announced securities‑law investigations and potential class actions on behalf of NGG ADR holders, referencing the Heathrow outage and subsequent share‑price moves. ^[16]

These investigations are, at this stage, marketing exercises rather than court‑certified lawsuits, but they underline that any adverse regulatory findings could carry financial as well as reputational consequences.

Dividend profile: ~4% yield and inflation‑linked ambitions

Income remains a core part of the National Grid investment case.

From the latest results and announcements: ^[17]

For 2025/26, the board has declared an interim dividend of 16.35p per share (and about $1.0657 per ADR), up roughly 3% year‑on‑year.
The ordinary shares went ex‑dividend on 20 November 2025 with a record date of 21 November; payment is due on 13 January 2026.
Investors can opt for a scrip dividend, taking shares rather than cash, at a reference price of 1,130.40p.
For FY2024/25, National Grid paid a total dividend of 46.72p per share, implying a trailing yield a little over 4% at current prices.

The stated policy is to grow the dividend per share in line with UK CPIH, underpinned by management’s 6–8% EPS CAGR guidance and high‑single‑digit RAB growth. ^[18]

That combination – mid‑single‑digit real EPS growth plus a c.4% cash yield – is exactly what many income‑oriented investors want from a regulated utility. The trade‑off is the leverage and regulatory complexity required to deliver it.

Analyst forecasts and valuation: modest upside, strong‑buy consensus

Sell‑side targets for LSE: NG.

Analyst consensus data from several platforms points to modest but positive upside from here:

Investing.com aggregates views from 15 analysts and reports an average 12‑month price target of about 1,180p, with a range of 1,070–1,300p, and an overall rating of “Buy” (9 Buys, 5 Holds, 1 Sell). ^[19]
TipRanks shows an even slightly higher average target of 1,209p, based on 10 analysts in the last three months, and labels the consensus as “Strong Buy”, implying around 5–6% upside from recent prices. ^[20]
MarketBeat lists a smaller subset of UK‑facing brokers but also records a “Buy” rating, with a 1,200p target, about 4% above the early‑December share price of 1,150.5p used in its calculations. ^[21]

ADR forecasts: NGG on “Neutral” to “Moderate Buy”

For the US‑listed NGG ADR:

Investing.com reports that 3 covering analysts have an average 12‑month target of about $76.1, with a range between $70 and $84.3, and an overall “Neutral” stance (one Buy, one Hold, one Sell). ^[22]
MarketBeat, looking at a somewhat different broker set, recently described NGG’s consensus rating as “Moderate Buy”. ^[23]

Quant models and “fair value” estimates

Valuation‑model sites are a bit more enthusiastic:

Simply Wall St reckons National Grid’s European‑traded shares are trading below its estimate of fair value, with the P/E of around 19–20x judged reasonable against the company’s forecast earnings growth and returns. ^[24]
The same platform expects EPS growth of roughly 10–11% per year over the next three years and a future return on equity around 10–11%, comfortably above the group’s cost of capital. ^[25]

Some DCF‑driven models hosted on third‑party sites (as summarised by independent commentators) suggest fair‑value ranges 20–30% above current prices, although others using different discount‑rate or growth assumptions are far more conservative – a reminder that “intrinsic value” estimates are highly sensitive to small tweaks in inputs. TechStock²+1

Technical picture

Short‑term technical services, such as StockInvest.us, currently label NG. a “Buy candidate”, noting that the shares sit in the lower half of a strong short‑term rising trend. Their AI‑based model projects roughly 14–15% potential upside over the next three months, with a 90% probability band between around 1,290p and 1,390p, but also flags warning signs like falling volume on rising prices and prior pivot‑top signals. ^[26]

That’s chartist code for: the trend is still your friend, but it’s not the screaming bargain it was in late 2024.

Key risks: regulation, leverage and legal overhangs

Even after today’s supportive‑looking RIIO‑T3 decision, National Grid is not a risk‑free bond proxy. Investors need to keep three main risk clusters in mind:

Regulatory and political risk
- Ofgem’s new framework, US state regulators, and broader political debates about energy bills and net zero all shape how much of National Grid’s planned £60bn of investment ultimately earns its allowed return. ^[27]
- The North Hyde/Heathrow incident has already triggered a UK investigation into asset maintenance, and any adverse findings could result in fines, enforced remedial investment or tighter future allowances. ^[28]
Balance sheet and funding risk
- With net debt around £41.8bn and regulatory gearing expected to drift into the mid‑60% range over the next price‑control periods, National Grid is relying on a finely balanced mix of earnings growth, equity issuances (via the rights issue and ongoing scrip take‑up) and supportive credit markets. ^[29]
Litigation and reputational risk
- The flurry of US securities‑law investigations and prospective class actions tied to Heathrow and alleged disclosures is still at an early stage, but illustrates how operational failures can spill into transatlantic legal headaches. ^[30]

None of these issues is unusual for a large regulated utility, but the sheer scale of the capex programme and the heightened sensitivity around grid reliability amplify their importance.

Bottom line: after Ofgem’s ruling, what is the National Grid stock story?

As of 4 December 2025, the National Grid equity story looks something like this:

Defensive cash flows anchored in regulated UK and US networks.
An enormous, largely policy‑backed investment runway (~£60bn over five years) tied to the energy transition, electrification and data‑centre growth. ^[31]
A dividend yield a little above 4%, with an explicit aim to keep pace with inflation. ^[32]
Valuations near 20x earnings and shares trading close to 12‑month highs, with most analysts seeing only mid‑single‑digit fundamental upside over 12 months – but potentially more if the company continues to execute cleanly and rates stay friendly. ^[33]
Balanced against high leverage, ongoing regulatory investigations and the usual political risk that comes with owning a visible, semi‑monopolistic piece of national infrastructure. ^[34]

For long‑term, income‑oriented investors comfortable owning regulated utilities, National Grid now looks less like a contrarian value play and more like an infrastructure‑style growth‑and‑income vehicle: you’re effectively being paid a mid‑single‑digit cash yield to help finance and own a slice of the future UK and US electricity grids.

References

HSBC Bank Today: New Chair, AI Ambitions and Asia Pivot Shape the 2026 Outlook (4 December 2025)

Vanquis Banking Group (LON: VANQ) Stock: Q3 2025 Profit, Motor Finance Redress Risk and the Road to 2027 Targets

Trustpilot Group Plc Stock Plunges After Short-Seller Attack – But Analysts Still See Triple-Digit Upside

SSP Group Plc (LON: SSPG) Soars on Results, Dividend Hike and Europe Rail Review – What It Means for the Stock