NEW YORK, Jan 12, 2026, 13:04 EST — Regular session
- UNG jumped over 6% by midday, following a strong bounce in U.S. natural gas futures.
- Leveraged gas fund BOIL scored a double-digit gain, showing just how quickly positioning can flip in winter.
- Traders are eyeing Thursday’s U.S. storage figures and updated temperature forecasts for their next move.
The United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) surged 6.6% to $11.09 around midday Monday, tracking a sharp rise in U.S. natural gas futures. ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas (BOIL) gained 13.0% as the benchmark contract advanced 6.22% to $3.366 per mmBtu. (Investing)
This shift is significant as gas prices have started factoring in weather risks once more. Even minor tweaks in temperature forecasts can swiftly alter anticipated heating needs, which then ripple through exchange-traded products linked to near-term futures.
For investors, the timing feels tricky. Winter might still throw in sudden cold spells, yet warm spells can quickly dampen demand, forcing traders to scramble after the newest model updates and driving volatility in funds that follow daily shifts.
Natural gas prices are quoted in mmBtu, which stands for million British thermal units, the standard measurement in U.S. gas markets. The front-month futures contract—the one closest to expiration—usually sees the biggest moves, since it’s tied most directly to weather forecasts over the coming weeks.
Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group, noted in a morning briefing that “mild winter forecasts limit gains.” He also cautioned that a “dipping jet stream” might cause ongoing market volatility as winter moves forward.
The structure of UNG sheds light on its sharp moves like today. USCF Investments, the fund’s manager, explains that UNG aims to follow daily natural gas price changes, pegging itself to the near-month NYMEX contract. It rolls over to the next contract as the current front month nears expiration.
Gas-linked stocks showed a mixed picture, despite gains in commodity funds. EQT Corp, a leading U.S. gas producer, dropped 1.5%, and LNG exporter Cheniere Energy slid 3.9%.
That gap isn’t unusual. Producer and LNG stocks often respond to broader equity flows, hedging strategies, and individual company news—not merely the day’s futures shifts.
There’s a risk here. Should forecasts turn warmer once more, heating demand could drop sharply, prompting those funds chasing rallies to pull back just as swiftly. UNG might also trail spot gas over time when the futures curve is in contango — meaning later contracts carry a premium over the front month — since rolling into pricier contracts tends to weigh on performance.
Traders are eyeing Thursday’s weekly U.S. Energy Information Administration natural gas storage report (Jan. 15) to confirm supply-demand dynamics. They’ll also track fresh U.S. temperature forecasts that could shift demand projections for late January.
