NEW YORK, January 3, 2026, 07:05 ET — Market closed
- U.S. strikes on Venezuela are set to inject a fresh risk premium into energy trading when markets reopen.
- Henry Hub front-month futures settled at $3.618/mmBtu on Friday as forecasts pointed to weaker heating demand.
- Traders are watching mid-January temperature shifts, LNG feedgas flows and the next U.S. storage report.
U.S. natural gas prices head into next week with geopolitical risk back on the tape after U.S. forces struck Venezuela and President Donald Trump said President Nicolas Maduro was captured.
For Henry Hub gas, the immediate direction still comes down to weather and storage heading deeper into winter, even as the Venezuela escalation is expected to lift volatility across the wider energy complex.
Front-month U.S. natural gas futures for February delivery settled at $3.618 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Friday, down 6.8 cents. The United States Natural Gas Fund fell 1.6% in the last session, while producer EQT slipped 0.3%.
Weather remains the swing factor. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said warmer-than-normal temperatures were expected across the eastern two-thirds of the United States for Jan. 7-11, with warmth spreading across the north-central region in the following days.
Meteorologists also see above-normal temperatures persisting into mid-January, which would reduce heating demand. Heating degree days, a common gauge of how much energy is needed to warm buildings, have been trending lower in model runs.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would edge down next week, from about 137.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 134.5 bcfd. LSEG also said Lower 48 output climbed to 110.1 bcfd in December, a monthly record.
Storage data reinforced the bearish tone. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said firms pulled 38 billion cubic feet (bcf) from storage in the week ended Dec. 26, below a 50-bcf withdrawal forecast in a Reuters poll and far smaller than the five-year average draw for that week.
“Given this weather and the drawdown number, there’s really not a whole lot of room for the natural gas prices to go up,” said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Company in Oklahoma City. EnergyNow
LNG — liquefied natural gas, superchilled for transport by ship — remains the main offset to mild-weather demand loss. LSEG data showed the U.S. became the first country to export more than 100 million metric tons of LNG in 2025, with new capacity such as Venture Global’s Plaquemines boosting shipments.
The Venezuela strikes are more directly tied to oil supply than U.S. gas balances, but the headlines can still move the energy complex. Reuters reported PDVSA’s oil production and refining were normal on Saturday and key facilities suffered no damage in an initial assessment, limiting the case for an immediate supply shock.
For next week, the warm outlook keeps downside levels in focus. Ritterbusch & Associates said extended warmth could pull February futures back toward the pre-Christmas low around $3.47, while any shift toward colder late-January forecasts would be the clearest trigger for a rebound.
Before the next session, traders will track weekend developments in Venezuela and any signals about further U.S. action, looking for knock-on moves in crude that could spill into gas sentiment when futures reopen.
Before the next session, weather model updates will set the tone for demand expectations, while LNG feedgas flows and operational updates at export terminals will be watched for signs exports can keep absorbing supply.
Before the next session, attention will also turn to the next weekly U.S. storage report and whether withdrawals start to widen toward seasonal norms. Traders have flagged support near $3.47, with $4.00 the next psychological line in the sand if colder forecasts return.
