NatWest Group Plc (NWG) Stock on 9 December 2025: Price, Outlook, Analyst Targets and Key News

Published: 9 December 2025

NatWest Group Plc’s share price is trading close to 12‑month highs as investors digest strong third‑quarter results, a clean bill of health from the Bank of England’s 2025 stress test and fresh deals that underline the bank’s “simplify and grow” strategy. ^[1]

Below is a detailed, news‑style overview of the NatWest share price today, the latest forecasts, and the key developments driving sentiment around NWG stock as of 9 December 2025.

NatWest share price on 9 December 2025

NatWest Group trades in London under ticker NWG and in New York via ADRs under the same ticker.

On the London Stock Exchange, NatWest closed on Monday 8 December at 621p, with the shares sitting just over 3% below their 12‑month high of 641.4p, set on 3 December 2025. ^[2]
Over the last year the stock has traded in a wide range, from around 369p in January to above 640p in early December, putting the current price near the top end of its 52‑week band. ^[3]
In U.S. trading, the NatWest ADR most recently changed hands at $16.52 (8 December close), broadly mirroring the London valuation after FX conversion. ^[4]

A strong 2025 rally has left NatWest among the best‑performing large UK banks this year. City A.M. estimates the stock is up roughly 56% year‑to‑date, comfortably beating many of the “Magnificent 7” U.S. tech names and helping drive a near 50% gain in the FTSE 350 Banks index. ^[5]

2025 so far: banks, budgets and the UK’s “quiet” outperformer

The backdrop to NatWest’s share‑price surge is a broader renaissance in UK bank stocks:

FTSE banks vs big tech: UK banking heavyweights NatWest, Lloyds, Barclays and HSBC have outpaced global tech leaders this year. Lloyds has risen more than 70%, Barclays around 65%, and NatWest about 56%, while several U.S. mega‑caps have delivered more modest teen‑level gains. ^[6]
Tax fears and relief rallies: Bank shares sold off sharply in late summer when a left‑leaning think tank proposed an £8bn annual tax on lenders’ so‑called “quantitative easing windfalls”. NatWest fell about 5% in a single session, wiping billions off the sector’s market value. ^[7]
Autumn Budget reprieve: The Autumn Budget ultimately stopped short of the widely rumoured £26bn tax raid on banks, prompting a relief rally: Lloyds jumped almost 4%, while NatWest and Barclays rose around 3% on the day. ^[8]

Analysts quoted in that sector piece describe UK banks as having enjoyed a “strong re‑rating”, but still trading on valuations they see as “supportive” relative to the wider market – with future performance likely to hinge on the quality and sustainability of returns rather than pure multiple expansion. ^[9]

Q3 2025 results: higher income, strong returns, upgraded guidance

NatWest’s own fundamentals have given the share price a solid foundation.

In its Q3 2025 results, published on 24 October, NatWest reported: ^[10]

Total income (excluding notable items) for the quarter of about £4.2bn, up roughly £0.2bn versus the previous quarter.
Attributable profit of £1.6bn for Q3 alone.
A quarterly Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of 22.3%, and 19.5% for the first nine months of 2025, up from 17.0% in the prior‑year period. ^[11]
Income excluding notable items for the first nine months of 2025 of £12.1bn, up 12.5% year‑on‑year. ^[12]
Customer loans of roughly £388bn, up 4.4% versus December 2024, and customer deposits of about £436bn. ^[13]

Cost control has remained a central theme:

The cost‑income ratio (excluding litigation and conduct) improved to 47.8% for the first nine months, from 52.8% a year earlier, reflecting ongoing simplification and efficiency programmes. ^[14]
NatWest continues to guide for 2025 operating costs (ex‑litigation) of around £8.1bn, including roughly £0.1bn of one‑off integration costs. ^[15]

Credit quality remains relatively benign, with the bank expecting an annualised loan impairment rate below 20 basis points for 2025. ^[16]

Net interest margin and the structural hedge

One of the important technical drivers for bank earnings is Net Interest Margin (NIM) – the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits.

NatWest’s investor factbook shows: ^[17]

Group NIM rose from 2.28% (228 bps) in Q2 2025 to 2.37% (237 bps) in Q3 2025, a 9‑basis‑point improvement quarter‑on‑quarter.
The uplift came from a mix of slightly better lending margins, improved deposit margins and funding effects.

Management expects its “product structural hedge” – the interest‑rate hedging programme used on non‑maturity deposits – to provide an income tailwind for several years:

Hedge income is expected to be about £1bn higher in 2025 than in 2024,
more than £1bn higher again in 2026 vs 2025, and still rising in 2027 and 2028. ^[18]

That guidance effectively signals that, even if headline interest rates drift lower, NatWest expects a delayed and extended benefit from hedges put on at higher yields.

Upgraded 2025 guidance

Off the back of strong nine‑month results and capital generation, NatWest raised its 2025 outlook:

It now expects income excluding notable items to be around £16.3bn in 2025 (up from previous guidance of more than £16bn).
Management aims for a full‑year RoTE above 18%, versus earlier guidance above 16.5–17%. ^[19]

New guidance for 2026 and fresh medium‑term targets are due with the full‑year 2025 results on 13 February 2026. ^[20]

Capital strength: stress tests and ratios

Capital remains one of the key reasons analysts and regulators view NatWest as relatively resilient.

At Q3 2025, NatWest reported a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 14.2%, about 60 bps higher than at the end of 2024 and 60 bps above Q2 2025, after continued earnings and risk‑weighted asset optimisation. ^[21]
Tangible net asset value per share (TNAV) rose to 362p, up 14.6% year‑on‑year. ^[22]

On 2 December 2025, the Bank of England released results of its latest system‑wide stress test. NatWest’s own regulatory announcement showed: ^[23]

A low‑point CET1 ratio of 11.1% in the stress scenario (vs 13.6% actual at end‑2024).
A low‑point Tier 1 leverage ratio of 4.7% (vs 5.0% actual).

Both figures were comfortably above the minimum thresholds, meaning no strategic management actions would have been required in the hypothetical downturn. NatWest’s CFO said the exercise underlined the strength of the balance sheet and its ability to keep supporting customers and the wider UK economy under severe stress.

Analysts at several houses have pointed to this combination of high RoTE and robust capital as a core part of the investment case, especially given expectations that European banks as a group may continue to outperform in 2026 thanks to solid balance sheets and still‑moderate valuations. ^[24]

Strategy in motion: full privatisation, disposals and digitalisation

From crisis nationalisation to full private ownership

2025 marks an important symbolic milestone: the UK government has finally exited its crisis‑era investment in the bank.

The state injected £45.5bn into what was then RBS between 2008 and 2009, ultimately owning over 80% of the group. ^[25]
Through a mix of market placings and directed buybacks by NatWest itself, the government gradually reduced its holding.
By 30 May 2025, HM Treasury no longer held any voting rights in NatWest Group, returning the bank to full private ownership for the first time since the financial crisis. ^[26]

Weeks after the government’s final sale, NatWest announced a further £1.5bn of shareholder distributions – a 9.5p interim dividend (around £768m) plus a new £750m share buyback, highlighting its confidence in capital strength and earnings visibility. ^[27]

Cushon sale: pruning non‑core assets

NatWest is also reshaping its portfolio. On 28 November 2025, Reuters reported the bank is in exclusive talks to sell its 85% stake in workplace pension provider Cushon to U.S. insurance broker Willis Towers Watson (WTW). ^[28]

Key details:

Cushon could be valued at more than £150m if a deal is completed, according to sources. ^[29]
NatWest originally bought its controlling stake in 2023 for around £144m, aiming to expand in workplace savings and pensions. ^[30]
The potential sale would fit current CEO Paul Thwaite’s focus on simplifying the group, concentrating capital on core UK retail, commercial and wealth banking. ^[31]

The talks are not guaranteed to result in a transaction, but markets tend to read such disposals as a move towards a cleaner, more focused balance sheet.

Branch closures and digital push

On the retail side, NatWest continues to reshape its physical footprint:

UK tabloid and regional coverage indicates that NatWest is closing six more branches in December, bringing total closures in 2025 to around 105 as the bank responds to the accelerating shift to digital banking. ^[32]
The lender says more than 80% of customers now bank primarily online or via mobile, and has pointed to investment in community “pop‑up” sites, mobile branches and industry‑wide Banking Hubs to preserve access to cash and face‑to‑face services in affected communities. ^[33]

While these changes support cost efficiency and digital adoption, they have also drawn political scrutiny and concerns about financial inclusion – a recurring theme for all UK high‑street banks.

How is NatWest stock valued today?

Despite the strong share‑price run, NatWest still trades on what many analysts describe as modest multiples versus earnings and book value.

Recent data from several sources suggest: ^[34]

A trailing price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio around 9.5–9.8x.
A forward P/E near 8.6x, based on consensus 2025 earnings estimates.
A price‑to‑book ratio of roughly 1.1–1.2x.
A return on equity in the low‑ to mid‑teens (around 13%).

Put simply: the market is paying just over book value and under 10 times trailing earnings for a bank currently delivering close to 20% RoTE and returning large amounts of capital to shareholders. ^[35]

That combination of high returns and average‑looking multiples is precisely what has attracted value‑oriented investors and “global leaders” screens that rank NatWest’s ADR among the stronger names in the global Banks–Money Center peer group. ^[36]

Analyst ratings, price targets and stock forecasts

The most recent wave of broker research is broadly constructive.

Consensus recommendations

MarketBeat data (early December) show six brokers covering NatWest in its sample, with a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” – four Buy ratings and two Holds. ^[37]
Investing.com’s broader tally points to an overall “Buy” stance, with 11 Buy, 5 Hold and 1 Sell recommendations in the last three months. ^[38]

Price targets

There is some variation between data providers, but the message is consistent: analysts, on average, see mid‑single‑digit to low‑double‑digit upside from current levels.

Recent snapshots include:

MarketBeat’s sample puts the average 12‑month target at about 666–662p, implying roughly 7% upside from current prices around 618–621p. High and low estimates span 765p and 550p. ^[39]
TipRanks, which aggregates a wider group of 10 analysts, reports an average target of 683p, with a high of 765p and a low again around 550p, suggesting about 10–11% upside from a last price near 618p. ^[40]
A recent DirectorsTalk analysis cited an average target of roughly 660p and a current price of 617.6p, equating to around 6.8% implied upside, with the 52‑week trading range stretching from 374.4p to 640.2p. ^[41]
TradingView’s forecast screen, based on 17 analysts, shows a similar consensus target just below 670p. ^[42]

Several banks have recently lifted their numbers: Citigroup raised its target to 765p in early December, helping NatWest briefly set a new 12‑month high above 641p. ^[43]

Earnings expectations

Consensus estimates compiled by Yahoo Finance indicate: ^[44]

2025 EPS of around £0.65 per share.
2026 EPS expected to rise to roughly £0.72, implying continued, but slower, profit growth as interest rates stabilise and loan growth rather than margin expansion does more of the heavy lifting.

Forecasts can change quickly in response to macro data, regulatory decisions or future results, but analysts currently expect earnings to remain comfortably above NatWest’s cost of equity, supporting ongoing dividends and buybacks.

Key risks and what to watch next

Even with a strong year behind it, NatWest faces a cluster of risks that investors and regulators are watching closely:

Political and tax risk
- UK banks have already been a focal point in debates over funding public spending, with think tanks proposing new sector‑specific levies and surcharges. ^[45]
- The Autumn Budget’s decision not to impose an additional £26bn tax package on banks removed an immediate overhang, but analysts warn that this reprieve could be revisited if the government seeks further revenue. ^[46]
Regulatory shifts and capital rules
- The Bank of England is running new stress tests focused on private credit and has adjusted certain capital requirements (such as MREL thresholds) in ways that affect competitive dynamics between large and mid‑tier lenders. ^[47]
- While NatWest cleared the 2025 stress test comfortably, future scenarios or rule changes could increase capital demands and constrain shareholder distributions.
Interest‑rate path and margin pressure
- NatWest’s upgraded 2025 guidance assumes a UK Bank Rate of 3.75% at year‑end, and its structural hedge is designed around certain reinvestment yields. A sharper‑than‑expected fall in rates, or intense competition for deposits, could pressure NIM beyond what the hedge can offset. ^[48]
Reputation, conduct and branch closures
- Continued branch and mobile‑unit closures, while supportive of cost‑cutting, have a political and reputational cost, particularly in rural or financially vulnerable communities. ^[49]
- The UK banking sector also still faces potential legacy issues from past mis‑selling and motor‑finance reviews, though provisions have already been recognised and current estimates for additional charges are lower than earlier worst‑case fears. ^[50]

Bottom line: where NatWest stands on 9 December 2025

As of 9 December 2025, NatWest Group Plc sits at an interesting intersection:

Share price: near 12‑month highs after a 50%‑plus rally this year, but still on single‑digit forward P/E multiples and just above book value. ^[51]
Fundamentals: double‑digit RoTE, rising NIM, strong capital ratios and an upgraded 2025 outlook. ^[52]
Shareholder returns: generous dividends and buybacks, including £1.5bn of distributions announced soon after full privatisation. ^[53]
Street view: a broadly positive analyst stance, with a consensus rating between “Buy” and “Moderate Buy” and typical price targets 7–11% above the current share price. ^[54]

For investors and observers, the next key checkpoints are likely to be:

The full‑year 2025 results and 2026–2028 targets in February,
Any confirmation of the Cushon sale and further portfolio reshaping, and
The evolving stance of the UK government on bank taxation, competition and branch access.