NatWest Group Plc Stock Near 52‑Week High: Latest News, Q3 2025 Beat and 2026 Forecasts

As of 1 December 2025, NatWest Group Plc (LON: NWG) is trading close to fresh 52‑week highs after a year of strong earnings, the UK government’s full exit from its shareholding, and a raft of capital returns. Investors are now weighing how much upside is left in the rally.

NatWest share price on 1 December 2025

NatWest Group’s London‑listed shares are trading around 630p per share, just shy of record territory after breaking through previous 52‑week highs in late November. Recent trading has seen the stock fluctuate in a daily range roughly between 620p and 636p, with a 52‑week range of about 370p to the low‑630s. ^[1]

Over the past 12 months, NatWest stock has delivered a share price gain of around 55–60%, broadly in line with the FTSE 350 Banks index, which is up about 56% year‑on‑year. ^[2]

On the US market, the New York–listed ADR (NYSE: NWG) is trading near $16–17, with a 52‑week range of about $9.16 to $16.82, mirroring the strong move in London. ^[3]

With that rally, NatWest’s market capitalisation has climbed to roughly £50–51 billion, putting it among the larger European retail‑focused banks. ^[4]

Q3 2025 results: earnings beat and upgraded guidance

The key driver of this year’s share price strength has been a series of earnings beats and guidance upgrades.

In Q3 2025, NatWest reported: ^[5]

Total income (excluding notable items) up to £4.2 billion, roughly £0.2 billion higher than the prior quarter.
Attributable profit of about £1.6 billion for the quarter.
Return on Tangible Equity (RoTE) of 22.3%, well above the bank’s through‑the‑cycle target and higher than 2024 levels.
Net loans to customers (excluding central items) up around £4.4 billion in the quarter, reflecting continued lending growth.
Customer deposits broadly stable, with a small decrease of about £1.1 billion, leaving a loan‑to‑deposit ratio of 88%.
Assets under management and administration (AUMA) up 8.1% in the quarter to £56 billion.
A CET1 capital ratio of 14.2%, about 60 basis points higher than both year‑end 2024 and Q2 2025, with capital generation of 101bps in the quarter.

Crucially, management used the Q3 update to strengthen its full‑year guidance. NatWest now expects for 2025: ^[6]

Income (excluding notable items) of around £16.3 billion, up from earlier guidance of “around £16 billion”.
RoTE greater than 18% for the year.

These numbers build on strong first‑half results. For H1 2025, NatWest reported an 18% rise in operating pre‑tax profit to £3.6 billion and announced a further £750 million share buyback, alongside an earlier upgrade of its RoTE guidance to around 16.5%. ^[7]

The combination of rising income, disciplined costs and higher guidance is a central part of the bullish equity story around the stock.

Government exit: end of the bailout overhang

A major structural milestone for NatWest in 2025 has been the UK government’s full exit from its crisis‑era stake.

On 30 May 2025, the UK Treasury confirmed it had sold its remaining sub‑1% holding, completing the divestment of a 45‑billion‑pound rescue stake that began during the 2008 financial crisis. ^[8]

Reuters reporting notes that: ^[9]

The government at one stage owned as much as 84% of the then‑Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).
The final sale brought NatWest fully back into private hands for the first time in nearly 17 years.
The bailout ultimately resulted in an estimated £10.5 billion loss to taxpayers once share sales and dividends are aggregated.

For equity investors, the practical impact is the removal of a large, price‑insensitive seller that has been periodically offloading shares for years. The reprivatisation has helped clean up the shareholder register and is widely seen as supportive for the share price longer term.

Capital returns: dividends, buybacks and preference shares

NatWest is now firmly positioned as a capital‑return story.

Ordinary dividends

For 2024, NatWest delivered: ^[10]

Income (excluding notable items) of £14.6 billion.
RoTE of 17.5%.
Operating profit before tax of £6.2 billion.
£4.0 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, with dividends per share up 26% year‑on‑year.

Management has stated that from 2025 onwards it intends to raise the ordinary dividend payout ratio from around 40% to about 50% of earnings, with additional capital returned via share buybacks when excess capital is available. ^[11]

Based on current share prices, the forward dividend yield implied by market data is in the high‑3% to mid‑4% range, depending on the assumed 2025 payout, still above the broader FTSE 100 yield. ^[12]

In July 2025, the bank announced an interim ordinary dividend of 9.5p per share, payable in September, confirming the trajectory toward higher ordinary distributions. ^[13]

Share buybacks

NatWest has also leaned heavily on buybacks. Following the £750 million programme announced with H1 2025 results, the bank has been repurchasing shares in the market, including regular transactions through the autumn. ^[14]

Given NatWest’s market cap of around £50 billion, buybacks at this scale, combined with a higher dividend payout, amount to a double‑digit cash yield to shareholders in some recent years, assuming programmes continue at similar levels. ^[15]

Preference share dividends

Alongside ordinary payouts, NatWest recently declared half‑yearly dividends on its 11% and 5.5% cumulative preference shares for the period to 30 September 2025. These will be paid at 5.5% on the 11% issue and 2.75% on the 5.5% issue, reflecting contractual terms. ^[16]

While modest in absolute terms, these preference dividends underline the bank’s strong capital position, which remains comfortably above regulatory minima.

Strategic reshaping: Cushon sale talks and social loan fund

Beyond earnings, two recent developments are shaping the narrative around NatWest’s strategy as of 1 December 2025.

Potential sale of Cushon to Willis Towers Watson

NatWest is in exclusive talks to sell its 85% stake in Cushon, a workplace pension and savings provider, to Willis Towers Watson (WTW). ^[17]

According to Reuters, key points include: ^[18]

The potential deal could value Cushon at more than £150 million.
NatWest bought its controlling stake in June 2023 for about £144 million, with management retaining 15%.
Cushon has roughly £3 billion in assets under management and provides workplace pensions and savings products to over 650,000 members across 21,000+ employers.

The sale would align with CEO Paul Thwaite’s emphasis on simplifying the bank, focusing capital on UK retail, wealth and business lending, and trimming non‑core fintech holdings acquired under previous leadership. ^[19]

If completed, the transaction would free up capital and reduce complexity, though the absolute financial impact is relatively small in the context of the wider group.

New £500m social loan fund and VIVID partnership

On 1 December 2025, housing association VIVID announced it had secured £100 million of funding from NatWest as the first drawdown from a £500 million NatWest social loan fund dedicated to building homes for social rent. ^[20]

Key features of the initiative include: ^[21]

The facility carries discounted interest margins and no arrangement fees, designed to cut financing costs for housing associations.
VIVID expects to build around 450 additional social rent homes with this financing over a 10‑year term.
The fund forms part of NatWest’s wider ambition to lend £7.5 billion to the UK social housing sector by the end of 2026.

This move supports NatWest’s ESG positioning and reinforces its role in addressing the UK’s housing shortage, while also generating relatively low‑risk, secured lending assets.

NatWest stock forecast and analyst views

With the share price near record highs, the key question for investors is whether there is significant upside left.

Broker and consensus price targets

Different analyst sources give a broadly constructive, but not euphoric, outlook:

MarketBeat: average 12‑month target of about 649p for the LSE‑listed shares, with a high estimate near 725p and a low around 550p. At a latest reference price of roughly 630p, this implies around 3% upside on average. ^[22]
Investing.com consensus: average 12‑month target of roughly 652p, with a range of 550p to 765p, and an overall “Buy” recommendation from 16 analysts (12 Buy, 4 Hold, 1 Sell). ^[23]
Investors Chronicle / FT forecasts: median target price of 662.5p, with high and low estimates of 730p and 550p respectively, implying about 7% upside from a last price of 618.4p at the time of that analysis. ^[24]
A separate investor‑outlook note recently put the average target slightly lower, around 645p, but still framed this as double‑digit upside versus prices earlier in November before the most recent rally. ^[25]

Taken together, traditional broker research sees modest further upside from current levels, with most of the re‑rating from “bailout discount” to “healthy UK retail bank” arguably already reflected in the price.

External quantitative and technical models

Outside broker research, various quantitative models and technical tools also lean bullish:

A technical screen on TradingView currently shows “Buy” for NatWest on a daily basis, with a stronger “Strong Buy” rating on a one‑week look‑back, reflecting positive price momentum and trend indicators. ^[26]
Algorithmic price‑forecast sites such as CoinCodex and PandaForecast project mid‑single‑digit percentage gains into late 2025, although such purely model‑driven forecasts should be treated with caution. ^[27]

Fundamental assessments

On the more fundamentals‑driven side, Morningstar’s October 2025 “Stock of the Week” feature on NatWest highlighted: ^[28]

A significant recovery from the 2023 “debanking” controversy around Coutts and Nigel Farage, which was formally settled in March 2025. ^[29]
Improved profitability and capital generation warranting an upgrade of its fair value estimate and a “narrow moat” view reflecting durable advantages in UK retail and business banking.

In short, most analyst and research commentary now treats NatWest as a solid, dividend‑paying UK bank rather than a special‑situation turnaround — with upside more likely to come from continued earnings delivery and sustained capital returns than from a further dramatic re‑rating.

Macro backdrop: rates, inflation and the UK banking sector

NatWest’s fortunes are tightly coupled to the UK economic and interest‑rate environment.

Interest rates and inflation

The Bank of England (BoE) has cut rates several times since 2024 but is still running a historically elevated policy stance. As of November 2025: ^[30]

Bank Rate stands at 4.0%, having been reduced from 4.25% in August 2025.
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–4 to hold rates at 4% in November, with a sizeable minority already favouring another cut.
The BoE has signalled that further easing is possible if inflation continues to retreat.

UK CPI inflation has eased to around 3.6% year‑on‑year in October 2025, down from roughly 3.8% three months earlier, but still above the 2% target. ^[31]

Moderately high rates are generally supportive for banks’ net interest margins (NIM), and NatWest’s Q3 results show NIM edging higher to around 2.37%, benefiting from higher structural hedge income. ^[32]

However, as the rate‑cut cycle progresses, the tailwind from higher rates is likely to fade, potentially compressing margins over time.

Sector performance

The broader FTSE 350 Banks index has rallied strongly over the past year, with a one‑year gain of around 55–56% and its own 52‑week high recently marked near current levels. ^[33]

NatWest’s performance is therefore part of a sector‑wide re‑rating, driven by:

Higher interest‑rate environments than the 2010s.
Improved capital ratios across UK banks.
Fading concerns about UK recession risk, though growth remains subdued. ^[34]

Macro data still show weak consumer confidence, slowing credit growth and concerns around fiscal policy, suggesting that asset‑quality risks and political risk remain important variables for 2026.

Risks and headwinds to watch

Despite the strong share price performance and improved fundamentals, several risks could challenge the investment case.

Margin compression and slower loan growth

If the BoE cuts rates more quickly than expected in 2026, NatWest’s net interest income could come under pressure as deposit pricing adjusts more slowly than asset yields. That would make it harder to sustain RoTE above the 18% level guided for 2025. ^[35]

At the same time, UK mortgage approvals and consumer lending have already shown signs of cooling, with October data indicating weaker remortgaging activity and subdued net lending. ^[36]

Credit quality and UK economic risk

Although NatWest’s loan‑impairment rate remains modest, any deeper slowdown in UK growth or an unexpected spike in unemployment could push impairment charges higher from current low levels. ^[37]

Banks are also exposed to sector‑specific shocks (for example, commercial real estate or small‑business defaults). NatWest’s diversified book helps, but does not eliminate, such risks.

Operational, IT and conduct risks

NatWest’s recent history shows that non‑financial risks can be just as important as balance‑sheet metrics:

The bank suffered a major mobile‑app outage in June 2025, locking millions of customers out of their accounts and drawing criticism over its digital resilience. ^[38]
NatWest has previously faced large regulatory fines, notably a £264.8 million penalty in 2021 for anti‑money‑laundering failings related to a corporate client, and continues to be scrutinised by regulators. ^[39]
The “debanking” controversy surrounding Nigel Farage and Coutts inflicted reputational damage and contributed to political scrutiny of account‑closure practices; although settled in March 2025, the episode helped prompt new “debanking” legislation in the UK. ^[40]
NatWest reports that it faces around 100 million cyber‑attack attempts per month, underlining the ongoing cyber‑security and operational‑risk burden facing large digital banks. ^[41]

In addition, the bank’s own complaints data show that H1 2025 complaints rose about 6.4% versus H2 2024, signalling continued pressure to improve customer service even as branch networks shrink and more activity moves online. ^[42]

These factors do not necessarily derail the investment case, but they can influence valuation multiples and regulatory capital requirements if not managed tightly.

Bottom line: a transformed NatWest, but expectations are higher

As of 1 December 2025, NatWest Group Plc looks very different from the crisis‑era giant once known as RBS:

The UK government is completely out, ending 17 years of state ownership. ^[43]
The bank is delivering RoTE close to or above 20%, supported by strong net interest income, cost control and capital discipline. ^[44]
Capital returns are robust, combining an ordinary dividend payout ratio trending toward 50% of earnings with sizeable share buybacks. ^[45]
The stock has re‑rated sharply, with year‑on‑year gains of around 55–60% and a valuation now largely in line with other profitable UK banks. ^[46]

Analyst forecasts and consensus price targets suggest only modest further upside from current levels, but they also indicate that NatWest is no longer priced as a structurally impaired bank. The equity story now hinges on whether management can sustain high returns, navigate a shifting rate environment, avoid major conduct missteps and keep capital flowing back to shareholders.

For investors and market watchers, NatWest has moved from being a post‑crisis rehabilitation case to a mainstream, income‑oriented UK bank, where incremental changes in growth, margins and risk management — rather than existential questions about survival — are likely to drive the next phase of performance.