London, Jan 7, 2026, 09:29 GMT — Regular session
- NatWest shares fell about 2.7% after Barclays cut its rating to “equal weight”.
- The lender kept buying back stock, part of a £750 million programme due to run until mid-February.
- Investors are watching UK inflation, the Bank of England and NatWest’s Feb. 13 results for the next catalyst.
NatWest Group (NWG.L) shares fell 2.7% to 642.8 pence by 09:29 GMT after Barclays downgraded the British lender. The stock traded between 641.0 and 654.8 pence, with a 52-week range of 369.0 to 674.2 pence.
The move pulls back a stock that has surged over the past year, tightening the market’s tolerance for any hint that shareholder payouts may slow. NatWest is up about 61% over 12 months and recently traded close to its 674.2p year high, Hargreaves Lansdown data shows.
Attention is turning to NatWest’s annual results on Feb. 13, when investors will look for guidance on net interest margin — the gap between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — and any update to capital targets. NatWest has scheduled a management presentation that morning.
Barclays cut NatWest to “equal weight” from “overweight” but kept its 700 pence price target. It trimmed 2026-27 earnings-per-share estimates by 4% and warned that rising risk-weighted assets — loans adjusted for risk in capital calculations — could crimp surplus capital, even if the bank lowers its common equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio target, a key regulatory capital buffer. Investing.com UK
Not all research desks are stepping back. Jefferies on Tuesday lifted its NatWest price target to 720 pence as it raised targets across UK lenders including Barclays and Lloyds, arguing the sector still trades at a discount to the wider market.
NatWest said it bought back 787,737 shares on Tuesday at a volume-weighted average price of 666.27 pence, after purchasing 806,867 shares on Monday, both from Merrill Lynch International. The buys are part of a share buyback programme of up to £750 million that is due to end no later than Feb. 13, 2026, and the bank said it intends to cancel the repurchased shares.
A filing showed chairman Rick Haythornthwaite and several non-executive directors bought small amounts of NatWest stock on Jan. 2 under the group’s shareholding policy. Haythornthwaite purchased 1,804 shares at £6.6040, the filing said.
But the downside case for the stock is clear: faster-than-expected UK rate cuts could squeeze bank margins if deposit costs do not fall in step, while higher loan losses would hit earnings and capital. A jump in risk-weighted assets from regulatory changes would also leave less headroom for buybacks.
