London, Jan 22, 2026, 09:05 GMT — Regular session
- NatWest shares jumped roughly 1.6% in early London trading
- Bank revealed new buybacks, planning to cancel the repurchased shares
- All eyes now shift to the BoE decision on Feb 5, followed by NatWest’s earnings on Feb 13
NatWest Group Plc shares climbed 1.6% to 660 pence by 0905 GMT on Thursday, bouncing back from the previous close of 649.6 pence. 1
UK banks are once again reacting to rates after December inflation came in hotter than anticipated, even though economists remain confident inflation will ease. “For now it’s a speed-bump,” said Adam Deasy, an economist at PwC. 2
Morgan Stanley has delayed its forecast for the Bank of England’s next rate cut, now expecting it in March instead of February following the latest inflation data. UBS Global Research made a similar adjustment. The anticipated cut remains 25 basis points, equivalent to 0.25 percentage points. 3
NatWest’s Business Growth Tracker pointed to mixed signals in the UK economy. Mid-market output grew in December, and confidence held steady for 2026, but smaller companies continued to see activity decline. “Business owners are heading into 2026 with greater certainty,” said Sebastian Burnside, NatWest’s chief economist. 4
In a recent filing, the bank disclosed it bought back 830,691 ordinary shares on Jan. 21 at a volume-weighted average price of 647.34 pence, as part of its ongoing buyback scheme. NatWest plans to cancel these shares, which will reduce the outstanding shares to roughly 7.99 billion, excluding treasury stock once the transaction settles. 5
JPMorgan lifted its price target for NatWest to 750 pence this week, pushing forecasts forward. The bank called NatWest’s year-to-date lag “unjustified,” pointing to an anticipated updated return-on-tangible-equity target. This metric measures profitability by excluding intangible assets. 6
UK bank shares slipped roughly 0.9% on Wednesday, weighing on the broader market while the FTSE 100 managed to stabilize following a streak of declines. 7
Higher-for-longer rates are a double-edged sword for lenders. While they boost interest income, they also risk squeezing borrowers, potentially driving up loan losses if economic growth falters and arrears increase.
Investors will be looking for signs of increased competition for deposits and any changes in credit quality across the sector, where peer comparisons tend to intensify sharply as results season kicks off.
NatWest’s next major event is on Feb 13, when it will report full-year results and unveil guidance for 2026 along with fresh targets for 2028. The bank plans to release its results at 0700 GMT. 8
