London, Feb 10, 2026, 08:06 GMT — Regular session
NatWest Group (NWG.L) shares were little changed in early London trade on Tuesday, hovering around 621 pence after a bruising reaction to its wealth deal the day before. The stock was up about 0.1% at 620.6p by 0803 GMT, after trading between 614.4p and 623.2p. 1
NatWest said on Monday it had agreed to buy wealth manager Evelyn Partners — which managed £68.6 billion of client assets at end-2025 — for £2.7 billion enterprise value and launched a £750 million share buyback. Chief executive Paul Thwaite called the purchase a “strategically and financially compelling use of capital”, and the bank said it expects roughly £100 million of annual cost savings while warning the deal would trim its core equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio — a key capital buffer — by about 130 basis points. NatWest said it expects to make its next buyback announcement at its first-half 2027 results, and it expects the acquisition to close in summer 2026, subject to regulatory approvals. 2
The timing is awkward and the point is simple: investors are heading into a heavy UK banks week with capital returns back on the agenda. Barclays reports on Tuesday, NatWest on Friday, and traders are trying to work out what falling interest rates might do to margins and credit quality at lenders that only recently got used to easy money from higher rates. 3
NatWest was one of the biggest drags on the FTSE 100 on Monday after the deal, with its shares sliding almost 6% even as the broader index finished slightly higher on gains in mining stocks. The move came as investors weighed a Bank of England signal that borrowing costs could fall if inflation continues to ease, a backdrop that tends to pressure banks’ lending spreads over time. 4
Some analysts framed the selloff as a valuation argument rather than a strategy one. Morgan Stanley said the acquisition “makes strategic sense, but it doesn’t come cheap,” pointing to an expected hit to tangible net asset value (TNAV) — book value excluding intangible assets — and a modest drag versus the alternative of buying back more NatWest shares, while still seeing earnings per share broadly neutral by 2027. 5
For shareholders, the trade-off now is clearer: more fee income and scale in wealth management, but less certainty on buybacks for more than a year. That is likely to keep the stock sensitive to any hint on how quickly management can absorb Evelyn and still hit capital targets.
NatWest is due to publish Annual Results at 7 a.m. GMT on Friday, Feb. 13, followed by a management presentation at 9 a.m. GMT and a fixed-income session at 1:30 p.m. GMT. 6
But there is a downside path. Integration can run hot, synergies can slip, and regulatory approvals can take longer than planned — all of which would leave capital returns more constrained than investors expect, just as the rate cycle turns less friendly for bank earnings.
What traders watch next is Friday’s results, and any hard detail on CET1 headroom, buyback timing and whether NatWest’s deal math still holds up once it sets out 2026 targets and the first integration milestones.
