New York time check: It is 2:51 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025 in New York.
In a thin, post-Christmas trading session on Wall Street, Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is under pressure even as the broader tech tape holds relatively steady. With major indexes hovering near record levels and year-end positioning in play, the market is rewarding “AI winners” selectively—and punishing anything that looks like dilution risk, heavy cash burn, or execution uncertainty. [1]
Below is what’s moving NBIS today, the most important recent company developments, and the key catalysts investors should keep on the radar before the next session.
NBIS stock price today: where Nebius is trading during the Dec. 26 session
As of the latest available pricing during U.S. market hours, NBIS is trading around $88/share, down roughly 3%–4% on the day, after trading between the mid-$80s and low-$90s intraday.
Context matters today: the broader market is muted after the holiday, with very light volume and smaller moves in index trackers—conditions that can amplify single-stock swings. [2]
A quick look at the tape around the same time:
- SPY (S&P 500 ETF): essentially flat to slightly down
- QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF): slightly positive/flat
- NVDA: higher on the day (a reminder that “AI exposure” is not trading as one block)
Why Nebius Group stock is in focus now
Nebius is positioning itself as a full-stack AI infrastructure / “AI cloud” provider—part of the emerging class of “neocloud” companies that rent out high-end GPU compute and the surrounding software stack to enterprises building and running AI models. Reuters has described Nebius’s core business as supplying Nvidia GPUs and AI cloud capacity amid ongoing capacity constraints across big cloud platforms. [3]
The company has also been the subject of major, market-moving headlines in 2025:
- A multi-year AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft
- A multi-year AI infrastructure agreement with Meta
- Very aggressive capex and power/data-center buildout plans
- Ongoing discussion about financing needs and potential dilution
All of that means the stock can trade less like a steady “cloud software” name and more like a capital-intensive infrastructure builder—with the valuation hinging on whether Nebius can scale capacity fast enough and finance it efficiently.
The biggest Nebius catalysts: Microsoft and Meta contracts
1) Microsoft: the “hyperscaler” validation deal
Nebius disclosed a major AI infrastructure win with Microsoft, describing it as a multi-year agreement to deliver dedicated capacity from a new data center in Vineland, New Jersey. [4]
In its Q3 2025 shareholder letter, CEO Arkady Volozh framed the Microsoft win as Nebius’s “first large enterprise” deal and put the value between $17.4 billion and $19.4 billion, with revenue expected to start ramping throughout 2026. [5]
Reuters also reported the Microsoft agreement at $17.4 billion, with potential expansion to $19.4 billion if additional services are purchased. [6]
What investors should take away:
This kind of contract can “de-risk” demand, but it also raises the bar on execution (data center delivery, GPU supply, power availability) and financing (building ahead of revenue).
2) Meta: a second hyperscaler-scale agreement
Nebius also announced a new AI infrastructure agreement with Meta valued at approximately $3 billion over five years. [7]
Reuters noted Nebius said it would deploy the capacity needed for the Meta contract over the next few months, but that the deal size was limited by Nebius’s currently available capacity—another signal that supply (capacity) is the constraint, not demand. [8]
Q3 2025 results: explosive growth, but the capex bill is enormous
Nebius’s latest reported quarter (Q3 2025) shows the central tension in the story: revenue growth is surging, but spending is surging even faster.
From Nebius’s Q3 2025 financial results release:
- Revenue:$146.1 million, up 355% year over year [9]
- Adjusted EBITDA:loss of $5.2 million [10]
- Net loss from continuing operations:$119.6 million [11]
- Purchases of property, plant and equipment (capex):$955.5 million in the quarter [12]
- Cash used in operating activities (continuing ops):$80.6 million in the quarter [13]
In the shareholder letter, management highlighted that Nebius was “sold out of available capacity” in Q3 and emphasized that the company is trying to unlock the capacity bottleneck heading into 2026. [14]
The company’s headline forecast: ARR $7B–$9B by end of 2026
Nebius’s CEO letter states the company believes it can reach annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) of $7 billion to $9 billion by the end of 2026. [15]
Reuters likewise reported Nebius targeting $7–$9 billion in annualized run-rate revenue by end-2026. [16]
That’s the growth vision bulls point to—but it’s also why bears keep coming back to one question: how much capital (and dilution) will it take to get there?
Funding and dilution: what the market is watching closely
Nebius has been explicit that scaling AI infrastructure requires major financing.
September 2025: equity + converts, with $4.2B gross proceeds “to date”
Nebius announced the closing of:
- An underwritten public offering of 10,810,811 Class A shares priced at $92.50, and
- A private offering of convertible notes totaling roughly $3.16 billion across two series (2030 and 2032 notes) [17]
The company said it expected to use proceeds (and additional financing) to support growth, including acquiring more compute/hardware, securing land and power, expanding data centers, and general corporate purposes. [18]
Reuters also covered the capital-raise plan around that period as Nebius sought billions to support AI cloud growth after the Microsoft deal. [19]
The at-the-market (ATM) program: up to 25 million shares
Nebius has also put in place an at-the-market (ATM) equity program for up to 25 million Class A shares, describing it as “dilution-sensitive.” [20]
The SEC prospectus supplement spells out the ATM structure and the banks acting as sales agents, and it underscores that sales can occur “from time to time” in ordinary broker transactions on Nasdaq or other permitted methods. [21]
Why this matters for today’s stock move:
Even on days with no new press release, NBIS can trade lower when the market is in a “show me” mood about cash burn + financing, because investors know management has multiple tools to raise capital—and any incremental equity can pressure the stock at the margin.
Expansion headlines: UK and Israel NVIDIA Blackwell deployments, plus Token Factory
Nebius has been actively publicizing product and infrastructure milestones designed to prove it can operate at the cutting edge of AI compute.
UK deployment (Blackwell Ultra) and public-sector narrative
On Nov. 6, Nebius announced its first NVIDIA Blackwell Ultra deployment in the UK, positioning the site as one of the UK’s most advanced AI supercomputing platforms. [22]
In that release, CEO Arkady Volozh called it “a milestone” for Nebius and the UK’s AI ecosystem, while NVIDIA’s UK&I enterprise lead Anthony Hills said AI is reshaping the UK’s industrial future. [23]
Israel deployment (Blackwell)
Nebius also announced a new AI data center deployment in Israel featuring NVIDIA Blackwell architecture, including “4,000 NVIDIA HGX B200s,” according to the company statement. [24]
Token Factory: inference platform push
Nebius introduced Nebius Token Factory as a production inference platform for deploying open-source models with enterprise-grade security and lifecycle tooling. [25]
Investor relevance: these announcements support the thesis that Nebius can win customers not only on raw GPUs, but also on platform + enterprise controls. The market, however, still tends to price the stock primarily on (1) capacity, (2) contract monetization, and (3) financing.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: where Wall Street is clustering
Analyst targets for NBIS vary widely—typical for a fast-scaling, capital-intensive AI infrastructure name.
Recent consensus-style summaries show:
- An average ~$155–$165 one-year target area, with lows around $129–$130 and highs above $200 (depending on the source and timing). [26]
- One note highlighted Citizens initiating with a Market Outperform and a $175 price target (as reported in publicly available coverage of the initiation). [27]
A separate MarketWatch comparison piece (focused on neocloud peers) cited D.A. Davidson analysts arguing Nebius could be a more attractive risk/reward than CoreWeave, while reiterating a buy view and a $125 target at the time of that report. [28]
How to interpret targets in this segment:
These price targets often move quickly because they’re sensitive to assumptions about:
- GPU supply/pricing,
- data-center power availability,
- backlog conversion and revenue timing,
- and the cost of capital (equity and debt).
The broader market setup today: why Dec. 26 can exaggerate single-stock moves
Today’s market backdrop has a few notable characteristics:
- Light volume after the holiday
AP reported “extremely light trading” on Dec. 26, with NYSE volume around roughly a third of normal earlier in the session. [29] - Rate-cut expectations and Fed watching into year-end
Reuters’ “Week Ahead” notes investors are focused on the path of rate cuts and upcoming Fed communication, quoting Michael Reynolds (Glenmede) on how important next week’s Fed minutes could be for understanding the debate inside the Fed. [30] - Rotation risk inside “AI”
Even in a market still broadly optimistic on AI, investors have shown they’ll rotate between “picks-and-shovels” (chips), platform winners, and infrastructure builders based on quarter-to-quarter execution and financing news. [31]
What investors should know before the next session
Because it’s Friday, the next regular U.S. session is Monday, Dec. 29, 2025 (unless your broker’s holiday schedule differs).
Even though U.S. markets are open today, it’s useful to plan for Monday now—especially with a high-volatility name like NBIS.
1) Know the official trading hours (and the risks in extended trading)
Nasdaq lists regular hours as 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with extended sessions where liquidity can be thinner and volatility higher. [32]
2) Watch for financing-related headlines (ATM usage, new debt, asset-backed structures)
Nebius has clearly signaled it expects to use multiple financing channels—including equity—to fund expansion. [33]
In practical terms: any update on share issuance or new financing terms can move NBIS as much as (or more than) “product news.”
3) Track execution signals around capacity and power
Management’s letter discusses ambitions to expand contracted power meaningfully by end-2026 and describes ramp plans tied to major customer contracts. [34]
For investors, the telltale updates tend to be: new sites, power secured, GPU clusters deployed, and revenue ramp timing.
4) Keep one eye on macro catalysts that can hit high-beta growth stocks
With markets focused on the Fed’s next clues, high-multiple/high-growth names can react sharply to rate expectations—especially in low-liquidity windows. [35]
5) Mark the next earnings window—but treat dates as estimates until Nebius confirms
Third-party market calendars list mid-February 2026 as a likely window for the next report, but some explicitly note Nebius has not confirmed the date yet. [36]
If you’re trading the stock, the difference between an “estimated” date and a confirmed date matters.
Bottom line: the NBIS debate in one sentence
Nebius stock is a tug-of-war between blockbuster demand signals (Microsoft/Meta) and the market’s concern about how much capital—and potential dilution—it will take to build the infrastructure fast enough. [37]
As today’s price action shows, even in a supportive year-end tape, NBIS can trade down when investors refocus on financing mechanics and execution risk—especially in thin holiday-week liquidity. [38]
References
1. apnews.com, 2. apnews.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. nebius.com, 5. assets.nebius.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. assets.nebius.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. assets.nebius.com, 10. assets.nebius.com, 11. assets.nebius.com, 12. assets.nebius.com, 13. assets.nebius.com, 14. assets.nebius.com, 15. assets.nebius.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. nebius.com, 18. nebius.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. assets.nebius.com, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. nebius.com, 23. nebius.com, 24. nebius.com, 25. nebius.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.gurufocus.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. apnews.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. assets.nebius.com, 34. assets.nebius.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. assets.nebius.com, 38. apnews.com
