NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 3:06 p.m. ET — Market Closed
Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with investors debating a familiar AI-infrastructure tradeoff: blistering growth and blockbuster contracts versus heavy spending, dilution risk, and sharp stock swings. NBIS ended Friday’s session at $87.59, down 3.88%, after trading as low as $86.74 and as high as $91.62 in a light, post-Christmas market that left major U.S. indexes only marginally lower. [1]
With U.S. exchanges closed for the weekend, the focus now shifts to what could move NBIS when trading resumes Monday: year-end liquidity (often thin), shifting risk appetite around AI names, and whether Nebius can keep converting GPU demand into revenue—without spooking markets with the size of the checks it’s writing to expand capacity. [2]
What happened to NBIS on Friday and why it matters for Monday
NBIS fell 3.9% on Friday, with trading volume below its recent average—an important detail during holiday weeks when fewer participants can amplify price moves. MarketBeat reported roughly 6.1 million shares traded, about a 59% drop versus average daily volume, reinforcing the “thin tape” dynamic that can exaggerate volatility into year-end. [3]
That volatility remains the defining feature of NBIS: data cited by The Motley Fool shows a 52-week range of $18.31 to $141.10, underscoring why the stock tends to overreact to sentiment shifts in the AI trade. [4]
The last 24–48 hours of NBIS headlines: “Could double in 2026” meets “show me the profits”
Over the past day, NBIS has been the subject of multiple bullish, retail-facing research pieces—many centered on a 2026 “double” scenario tied to capacity expansion and management’s longer-term run-rate ambitions. [5]
Key points driving the optimistic case:
- Capacity constraints are real—and near-term demand appears strong. A Nasdaq.com analysis noted Nebius has sold out available computing capacity for the third quarter, and said the company increased its contracted power ambition for 2026 to more than 2.5 gigawatts, up from a prior 1-gigawatt expectation. [6]
- Growth has been explosive, but from an early base. The same analysis points to Q3 revenue of about $146 million, up 355% year over year, with full-year revenue expectations of $500 million to $550 million. [7]
- The metric debate: “ARR” can mean different things. Commentary pieces often describe ARR as “annual recurring revenue,” but Nebius itself defines ARR as annualized run-rate revenue (calculated using the last month of the quarter multiplied by 12). In its Q2 2025 reporting, Nebius raised ARR guidance to $900 million to $1.1 billion for the end of 2025—language that has since become central to the stock’s 2026 narrative. [8]
The pushback, also prominent in recent analysis, is valuation and profitability:
- Nasdaq.com highlighted that Nebius remains unprofitable, citing a Q3 net loss of $120 million, and argued that the stock’s valuation is difficult to justify on earnings—framing the name as a high-beta play on renewed AI risk-on sentiment rather than near-term fundamentals. [9]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: wide range, but the tilt remains bullish
Wall Street’s published target prices for NBIS vary widely—typical for a fast-scaling, capital-intensive infrastructure story—but the balance of coverage still leans positive.
Benzinga’s analyst compilation shows:
- Consensus price target: $154.83 (7 analysts)
- High target: $211 (Northland Capital Markets, Nehal Chokshi, Nov. 12, 2025)
- Low target: $120 (Goldman Sachs, Alexander Duval, Sept. 17, 2025) [10]
Benzinga also lists several notable bullish calls still anchoring the Street narrative, including:
- Citizens coverage with a $175 target and “market outperform” (analyst listed as Greg Miller)
- DA Davidson reiterating Buy with a $150 target (analyst listed as Alex Platt)
- BWS Financial maintaining Buy with a $130 target (analyst listed as Hamed Khorsand) [11]
Other aggregators frame the consensus similarly but with methodological differences:
- TipRanks shows an average target of $164.20 based on five analysts and a “Strong Buy” consensus. [12]
- MarketBeat calculates an average target of $144.71 with a “Buy” consensus across 10 analyst ratings. [13]
- Investing.com lists an average target of $151.50 (8 analysts), with targets spanning $70 to $211. [14]
The takeaway for investors going into next week: NBIS is not a “tight consensus” name. Price targets cluster far above the current share price, but the spread reflects genuine disagreement about how quickly growth translates into durable margins—especially as capital spending accelerates. [15]
Dan Ives and the buyout narrative: a catalyst for sentiment, not a deal signal
One of the more market-moving themes circling NBIS into year-end has been M&A speculation—specifically the idea that a hyperscaler could acquire an AI “neocloud” operator to secure scarce GPU capacity.
A recent Barchart piece said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives has characterized Nebius as “ripe” for a potential hyperscaler acquisition in 2026, noting that commentary around this thesis helped fuel a sharp short-term move when it circulated. [16]
Earlier in December, The Motley Fool similarly reported Ives identified Nebius as a high-probability buyout candidate among neocloud peers—an idea that has repeatedly resurfaced whenever AI infrastructure stocks regain momentum. [17]
Important context: neither item indicates a transaction is underway. The “buyout candidate” frame is best understood as a sentiment accelerant—especially for a stock that’s already shown it can swing double digits on narrative shifts. [18]
The fundamental engine: hyperscaler contracts, but also hyperscaler-level spending
The core bull case for Nebius still traces back to its position as a GPU-heavy AI infrastructure provider and the credibility boost from large counterparties.
Reuters has reported that Nebius leveraged multi-billion dollar contracts with Microsoft and Meta as it expands its AI infrastructure business and broadens its customer base, while emphasizing the company’s focus on margins and long-term relationships. Reuters also described Nebius as Europe’s biggest “neocloud” firm and reported management’s plan to secure 2.5 gigawatts of contracted power capacity by end-2026. [19]
But “buildout” is the operative word. A TipRanks analysis highlighted that management raised 2025 capital expenditure guidance from roughly $2 billion to around $5 billion, a signal that growth may remain coupled to heavy investment (and potentially financing) for longer than many traditional software investors are used to. [20]
Nebius has also tapped capital markets before. An SEC-filed exhibit from June 2025 shows the company announced a $1 billion private placement of senior unsecured convertible notes (two tranches, due 2029 and 2031). [21]
What investors should know before the next session
Because NBIS is a high-volatility AI infrastructure stock, weekend “nothing burgers” can turn into Monday gaps if macro sentiment shifts. Here are the key items investors will likely watch before Monday’s open:
- Risk appetite and year-end market mechanics: Reuters described Friday’s session as quiet and post-holiday, with indexes only slightly lower and the market entering the “Santa Claus rally” window often associated with seasonal strength—though liquidity can be thin. That backdrop tends to magnify moves in high-beta names like NBIS. [22]
- Where NBIS sits technically: MarketBeat noted the stock is below its 50-day moving average (~$99.35) but above its 200-day moving average (~$82.23)—levels traders often use as reference points for momentum and support. [23]
- Any new contract, capacity, or financing headlines: Recent bullish analysis leans heavily on the idea that Nebius is “sold out” and expanding power capacity plans. If the company posts updates on additional long-term agreements, GPU availability, power procurement, or new capital raises, the stock can re-rate quickly—up or down. [24]
- Analyst notes and target updates: While many key targets are from November, the name is widely covered and subject to rapid revisions if the Street reassesses the pace of expansion spending or the path to profitability. [25]
Bottom line for NBIS stock heading into Monday
Nebius Group N.V. stock enters the final trading days of 2025 in a familiar posture for AI infrastructure: big-picture optimism (capacity demand, hyperscaler relationships, aggressive 2026 ambitions) battling near-term realism (losses, expensive valuation metrics, and the sheer cost of scaling).
Friday’s drop to the high-$80s doesn’t change the long-term narrative on its own—but it reinforces the central rule of NBIS: this is a stock that trades as much on AI capex sentiment and execution confidence as it does on quarterly numbers. As markets reopen Monday, investors will be looking for any signal that Nebius can keep accelerating run-rate revenue while staying ahead of the funding and margin questions that come with building GPU infrastructure at hyperscale. [26]
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.fool.com, 5. www.fool.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. nebius.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.benzinga.com, 11. www.benzinga.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.barchart.com, 17. www.fool.com, 18. www.barchart.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.benzinga.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com
