NEW YORK, March 19, 2026, 12:11 PM EDT
Nebius Group, trading on Nasdaq, saw its shares hovering near flat late Thursday morning. The AI infrastructure firm had just priced a larger-than-planned $4 billion convertible notes deal. Shares slipped roughly 0.3% to $118.20, having moved between $114.04 and $121.75 earlier.
This shift puts the spotlight squarely on what it costs Nebius to land those headline AI contracts. The Amsterdam-based firm is selling $2.25 billion in 2031 notes carrying a 1.25% coupon, and $1.75 billion of 2033 notes at 2.625%. Convertible notes like these can morph into equity down the line, a structure that typically signals dilution risk to investors. Nebius is targeting about $3.96 billion in net proceeds for upgrades—think new data centers, AI cloud buildout, and more GPUs. Conversion kicks in at about $183.22 and $180.31 a share, pricing comfortably above where the stock settled on Tuesday.
Timing here is crucial. Earlier this week, Nebius inked a deal to deliver $12 billion in AI computing power to Meta by 2027, with another $15 billion possible over five years. Nvidia, for its part, disclosed last week it’s grabbing an 8.3% stake for $2 billion. Nebius, much like U.S. rival CoreWeave, is among the “neocloud” players: cloud outfits narrowly targeting AI workloads as Meta signals it could pour up to $135 billion into capacity in 2026. Reuters
CEO Arkady Volozh pointed to the Meta deal as a move that could lock in more sizable, multi-year capacity contracts and quicken Nebius’s push on its main AI cloud platform. The company left its 2026 outlook as is.
Tyler Radke at Citi kicked off coverage with a Buy and set a $169 target, TipRanks reported. Radke pointed to Nebius “scaling ahead of peers” and highlighted the company’s early access to next-gen GPUs. He also noted its capital-efficient approach as a possible edge for grabbing share as AI demand ticks up. TipRanks
The upside, though, isn’t without a big caveat. As Barron’s noted, Radke slapped a “High Risk” tag on the stock, citing Nebius’s thin track record, the heavy capital demands tied to building out multi-gigawatt data centers, and its reliance on just a handful of major cloud clients. Barron’s
The pressure’s clear in the latest numbers. Nebius turned in fourth-quarter revenue of $227.7 million back in February, but the net loss ballooned to $249.6 million as GPU and data center costs piled up. Even so, the company stuck with its projection: closing out 2026 with an annualized revenue run rate between $7 billion and $9 billion, and contracted power topping 3 gigawatts by year-end.
Nebius isn’t new to the capital markets. Back in September, fresh off its $17.4 billion AI infrastructure agreement with Microsoft, the company said it planned to pull in $3 billion, combining convertible notes and equity. The hefty fundraising move, announced alongside a massive deal, underscored how AI infrastructure players often see big ticket wins and big capital demands go hand in hand.
