New York, Feb 20, 2026, 09:10 ET — Premarket
- NP surged 12.7% Thursday as KBW lifted its rating. BofA stepped in with its own upgrade early Friday.
- Q4 revenue landed at $43.8 million, with the company noting that net income took a hit from IPO-related expenses.
- On the call, management pointed to 2026 revenue of $193 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin hovering near 60%.
Shares of Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc (NP) climbed 12.7% Thursday, finishing at $20.44. Keefe Bruyette & Woods raised its rating and upped the price target, and then BofA Securities moved in early Friday, upgrading NP to neutral with a $23 target. (MarketScreener)
Neptune’s shares have been on a wild ride since its debut-year numbers landed, with analyst notes now shaping how the market weighs its growth prospects against the risk that comes with catastrophe exposure.
Friday, for traders, tends to be all about seeing whether moves stick. Stocks popping over 10% in a session? They can just as easily reverse course, particularly once post-open volume starts to dry up.
Neptune reported a 39% jump in fourth-quarter revenue to $43.8 million, but net income dropped 63% to $4.3 million, citing $4.6 million in expenses tied to its IPO. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter landed at $25.9 million. Written premium increased 41% to $100.3 million. For 2025, the company logged $159.6 million in revenue, adjusted EBITDA of $95.0 million, and $367.3 million in written premium. (Q4 Capital)
Written premium reflects the total value of insurance policies sold, not accounting for any claims. Adjusted EBITDA, used as a profitability gauge, excludes items firms designate as one-time costs. It’s not recognized under GAAP, so investors often scrutinize it—especially during choppy quarters.
Neptune functions as a managing general agent, selling and pricing policies for carriers and reinsurers instead of taking insurance risk onto its own books. That approach appears “asset-light,” though growth depends on the amount of risk capital its partners are ready to put up.
During the earnings call, management projected 2026 revenue at $193 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin targeting 60% to 61%. But they cautioned that “government policy and weather-related activity make short-term forecasting challenging.” Executives highlighted several initiatives: expanding to 40 capacity providers, a beta rollout of a new indemnity earthquake product, and efforts to boost agent access by adding new logins. (The Motley Fool)
The simple story doesn’t always hold. Should catastrophe losses sour carriers on flood risk, or if price moves rub agents the wrong way, premium growth could stall fast—and the stock might take a hit.
Neptune’s peers are a mixed bunch. On one side, it’s up against the National Flood Insurance Program, which has the government behind it for plenty of policies. But Neptune also operates in the larger insurance distribution network, where the big brokers and MGAs draw attention for their growth, margins, and customer retention.
