New York, July 5, 2026, 14:05 (EDT)
- Netflix added 5.2% in the holiday-shortened week, outpacing the Nasdaq Composite’s 2.1% rise. Still, shares are off 17.2% for the year and have fallen 40.1% over the past 12 months.
- Netflix ended Thursday with a market cap trading at about 26.2x its 2026 free cash flow estimate and 6.4x the midpoint of its sales outlook.
- The next key test comes July 16, when Netflix will report its second-quarter numbers and guidance after the bell.
U.S. stock markets were closed Friday, July 3 for the Independence Day holiday. Nasdaq’s normal trading hours, 9:30 a.m. to 4 p.m. ET, will pick up again Monday. Netflix, Inc. NASDAQ:NFLX isn’t a live tape story this weekend, but it’s still on the setup list.
Netflix finished Thursday at $77.65, gaining 4.66%. Trading volume hit 55.54 million shares, or 134% of its 65-day average, according to MarketWatch. Shares remain in the lower half of the 52-week band between $70.86 and $129.50 despite bouncing back for two days.
How the week played out is important. Netflix dropped on Tuesday. Shares bounced back Wednesday and Thursday, jumping nearly 9% as trading volume remained high.
| Date | Close | Daily move | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 26 | $73.81 | up 4.10% | 74.99 mln |
| June 29 | $73.78 | off 0.04% | 42.43 mln |
| June 30 | $71.40 | down 3.23% | 49.24 mln |
| July 1 | $74.19 | up 3.91% | 43.84 mln |
| July 2 | $77.65 | up 4.66% | 55.54 mln |
The Nasdaq Composite finished at 25,832.67 on July 2, dropping 0.8% in the session but above the 25,297.62 level from June 26, according to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis figures. Netflix’s gain for the day outpaced moves in The Walt Disney Company NYSE:DIS, Amazon.com, Inc. NASDAQ:AMZN, Comcast Corporation NASDAQ:CMCSA, and Meta Platforms, Inc. NASDAQ:META.
| Name | Last close | Last-session move | Market read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netflix NASDAQ:NFLX | $77.65 | +4.66% | Bounced off almost a 52-week low |
| Walt Disney NYSE:DIS | $99.50 | +3.96% | Another media name in demand |
| Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN | $242.67 | +0.40% | Outpaced by other major techs |
| Comcast NASDAQ:CMCSA | $23.79 | about flat | M&A talk and breakup chatter hang over it |
| Meta NASDAQ:META | $582.90 | -4.90% | Selling on AI and cloud concerns |
Investors don’t focus much on cash flow. Netflix’s market cap was $326.97 billion on Thursday, according to MarketWatch. The company’s latest shareholder letter said it expects 2026 free cash flow around $12.5 billion, and 2026 revenue between $50.7 billion and $51.7 billion. At those estimates, shares change hands at about 26.2 times 2026 free cash flow and 6.4 times the midpoint of projected revenue.
| Metric | Company or market figure | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| Market cap | $326.97 bln | MarketWatch |
| 2026 revenue guide midpoint | $51.2 bln | Midpoint of 50.7 to 51.7 |
| Market cap / revenue guide | 6.4x | 326.97 divided by 51.2 |
| 2026 FCF guide | $12.5 bln | Netflix outlook |
| Market cap / 2026 FCF guide | 26.2x | 326.97 on 12.5 |
| Buyback authorization left at last report | $6.8 bln | Roughly 2.1% of market cap |
This makes the July 16 report important for holders. Netflix is guiding for Q2 revenue of $12.574 billion, up 13.5% from a year ago. The company sees operating income at $4.105 billion and a 32.6% margin. Netflix also flagged that Q2 will see the highest year-on-year jump in content amortization for 2026, but said that pace should slow in the second half.
Netflix management hasn’t shifted from pricing, ads and cash returns as the core of its pitch. The company said over 60% of new Q1 subs in ad markets came from the ad plan. It now has more than 4,000 advertisers, up 70%. Ad revenue is still expected to hit about $3 billion for the year—double what it sees for 2025.
Netflix still aims for 12% to 14% revenue growth by 2026 and is holding to its 31.5% operating margin goal, Co-CEO Greg Peters told analysts back in April, saying part of that plan is to “roughly double” its ad business. On sports, Co-CEO Ted Sarandos said live coverage will stick to “big breakthrough events,” not season-long deals, no matter the price.
Bears have focused on catalyst risk. In June, Jefferies’ James Heaney trimmed his Netflix target to $110 from $128 but kept a buy rating, according to Investor’s Business Daily. Heaney said the stock faces a “light catalyst path.” He flagged potential margin gains and more viewing hours per subscriber in the second half as possible lifts. Investor’s Business Daily
Media M&A stayed on the radar last week. Comcast said it plans to separate NBCUniversal and Sky from its broadband arm. Analysts told Reuters that could put the assets in play for Netflix down the line, but Comcast execs downplayed any quick deals. Netflix, in its last update, said the Warner Bros. deal only made sense at the right price and noted it restarted buybacks after pulling out.
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