NEW YORK, Jan 20, 2026, 06:04 EST
- Netflix will release its fourth-quarter earnings following Tuesday’s U.S. market close
- Options markets are pricing in roughly a 7% swing in the shares by the end of the week
- Investors will likely challenge management on financing concerns and regulatory risks related to the Warner Bros. Discovery deal
Options traders expect a big move in Netflix shares Tuesday, with quarterly results looming and the spotlight firmly on its proposed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition.
Why this matters now: the company is set to release new figures and guidance just as investors wrestle with the chances of a megadeal closing, stalling, or being altered by regulators and competitors.
The earnings report might shake the stock for a day. But comments from executives on 2026 — and on Warner — could shape sentiment for weeks, especially given the fragile mood after months of decline.
Options pricing points to a possible 7% move in Netflix stock by week’s end after earnings, which would put shares near $94 or below $82 from Friday’s $88 close. Analysts tracked by Visible Alpha project revenue to climb about 17% to $11.97 billion, with earnings per share rising roughly 30% to $0.55. Yet investors will likely zero in on financing details for the Warner deal and whether any pushback delays the timeline. Netflix shares have dropped nearly 30% since missing earnings expectations in October, due to an unexpected tax hit. Still, most analysts followed by Visible Alpha maintain a buy rating, with an average price target of $135. 1
In a separate preview, TradingView noted Netflix’s shares have held steady ahead of earnings, following a steep 30% decline over six months. Investors are expected to focus heavily on management’s guidance around margins and the ad-supported plan — the cheaper, commercial-backed option — alongside the quarter’s core results. The ongoing Warner saga remains the biggest cloud over the stock. 2
Netflix will release its fourth-quarter results and business outlook on its investor relations page Tuesday around 1:01 p.m. Pacific time. The data drop will be followed by a live video interview at 1:45 p.m. Pacific featuring co-CEOs Ted Sarandos and Greg Peters, CFO Spence Neumann, and Spencer Wang, who leads finance, investor relations, and corporate development. 3
Investors have been scrutinizing the cost of the Warner deal. According to a Barron’s report, Netflix’s stock has dropped roughly 15% since Dec. 5, the day it announced plans to buy Warner’s streaming and studio assets for $27.75 a share—$23.25 in cash, the rest in Netflix stock—while spinning off Warner’s cable assets. Benchmark analyst Daniel L. Kurnos remarked, “Who are we kidding, there is no chance that this print distracts investors from the ongoing circus.” 4
Some Wall Street analysts are trying to balance core strength against deal-related risks. KeyBanc’s Justin Patterson lowered his price target sharply, from $139 to $110, though he maintained a buy rating. He flagged the possibility of “softer” operating margins emerging in 2026. Meanwhile, BMO Capital’s Brian Pitz kept his buy call intact, highlighting what he described as strong engagement during the quarter, including major tentpole releases and sports programming. TipRanks’ options data shows traders expect about a 7.78% swing either way around earnings. 5
The downside remains clear. A larger cash portion might spark concerns about funding. A drawn-out regulatory review could tie up management’s focus. And a legal battle with competitors could leave the stock driven more by news than by fundamentals.
The competitive landscape is evolving rapidly. A deal transferring Warner’s studios and HBO to Netflix would escalate the streaming war with Disney and Amazon, squeezing smaller rivals already scrambling to grow.
Tuesday’s focus is straightforward: can Netflix deliver enough revenue growth and profit to stop investors from brushing off the quarter? The results come out after the bell, with management’s remarks to follow soon after.
