Netflix (NFLX) After Hours: Warner Bros Bidding War, Trump Comments and What to Know Before the December 9 Open

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) closed Monday, December 8, 2025 under heavy pressure as a dramatic bidding war for Warner Bros. Discovery and fresh political scrutiny rattled investors. The stock slid again in regular trading and barely budged after the bell, setting up a high‑stakes open on Tuesday, December 9.

Below is a full rundown of what happened to Netflix stock after the bell on December 8, the latest news and analyst forecasts, and the key things traders and long‑term investors should watch before the next U.S. session starts.

1. How Netflix Stock Looks After the December 8 Close

Price action

• Close (regular session, Dec 8, 2025): around $96.8 per share, down about 3.4% on the day. ^[1]
• After‑hours (4:17 p.m. ET): roughly $96.6, only a fraction below the official close – suggesting no major new headline hit immediately after the bell. ^[2]
• Intraday range: traded roughly between $95 and $100, touching its lowest levels since April. ^[3]
• Volume: nearly 86–99 million shares, well above normal recent days, signaling active institutional repositioning. ^[4]

Bigger picture

• Over the last four sessions, NFLX has slid from the low‑$110s to the mid‑$90s as the Warner Bros drama has escalated. ^[5]
• The stock now trades about 30% below its 52‑week high near $134, though still above its 52‑week low around $82. ^[6]
• Despite the recent sell‑off, at least one major outlet notes Netflix remains modestly up year‑to‑date, roughly mid‑single‑digit gains after doubling investors’ money over the prior 12 months. ^[7]

The message from the tape is clear: Netflix has become a high‑beta, headline‑driven stock again, with the Warner deal and politics now dominating the near‑term story.

2. The Three Big Reasons Netflix Sold Off on December 8

2.1 Paramount’s $108B hostile bid turned the deal into open warfare

The single biggest new catalyst on Monday: Paramount Skydance went hostile.

• Paramount Skydance launched a hostile all‑cash bid worth about $108.4 billion for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD), offering $30 per share. ^[8]
• Netflix had already won a weeks‑long auction last week, agreeing to acquire Warner’s film and TV studios, HBO/HBO Max and gaming assets for $72 billion, valuing Warner at roughly $82.7–83 billion with a $27.75 per‑share cash‑and‑stock offer. ^[9]
• Paramount argues its offer gives Warner shareholders about $18 billion more in cash than Netflix’s and might face fewer regulatory obstacles because it keeps the legacy TV networks inside a traditional media group instead of a tech‑led streaming giant. ^[10]

Warner’s board said it will review the Paramount offer but, for now, has not withdrawn support for Netflix’s deal. ^[11]

For Netflix shareholders, this creates several layers of uncertainty:

1. Will Netflix have to raise its bid?
   A higher offer could mean more leverage, more dilution, or both.
2. Could Netflix walk away?
   If Warner accepts Paramount’s bid, Warner would owe Netflix about $2.8 billion in a breakup fee. ^[12]
3. How long will this drag on?
   Morningstar and other analysts already flagged the Warner deal price as “exorbitant” and expect a long, messy process; a hostile tender only lengthens that timeline. ^[13]

All of this helps explain why Netflix fell more than 3%, while Warner and Paramount actually rose on Monday – classic merger‑arbitrage behavior where the target’s shareholders celebrate and the buyer’s shareholders worry. ^[14]

2.2 Political heat: Trump and antitrust worries

The second blow came from Washington and the White House.

• On Sunday, President Donald Trump said the combined market share of Netflix plus Warner “could be a problem” and that he would be “involved” in the decision. ^[15]
• On Monday, a White House economic adviser told CNBC that the Department of Justice will examine the deal’s impact for “quite a while.” ^[16]
• Bipartisan lawmakers and Hollywood unions have already criticized the transaction on the grounds that it could reduce competition, cut jobs and raise prices for consumers. ^[17]

Netflix agreed to a $5.8 billion termination fee payable to Warner if regulators block the deal – a huge check it would have to write without getting the asset. ^[18]

That combination — a massive break fee plus explicit antitrust skepticism from the president and lawmakers — is exactly the kind of thing that makes Wall Street mark up risk premiums and mark down valuation multiples, especially for a growth stock that had already rallied strongly earlier in the year.

2.3 Wall Street downgrades and price‑target cuts hit all at once

With the political drama escalating and Paramount’s hostile bid in the mix, several high‑profile analysts downgraded Netflix on Monday:

• Pivotal Research: cut Netflix from Buy to Hold and slashed its target from $160 to $105, warning that the $82.7B+ price tag and 18–24 month closing period add major execution and regulatory risk. ^[19]
• Rosenblatt Securities: downgraded to Neutral from Buy and dropped its price target from $152 to $105, saying the surprise mega‑deal creates a “prolonged period of uncertainty” with limited near‑term financial benefits. ^[20]
• Huber Research (TipRanks): cut Netflix to Sell with a $92 target, calling the transaction “very risky” given antitrust and integration concerns. ^[21]

At the same time, BofA and other bulls have not abandoned the story, arguing that if Netflix successfully folds Warner’s IP — Harry Potter, DC, HBO, classic films — into its platform, it could cement its lead in streaming for a decade. ^[22]

But in the very short term, the tone shifted from “Netflix has already won streaming” to “this may be a bet‑the‑franchise deal.” That shift in narrative is a big reason NFLX keeps getting sold on rallies.

3. What Analysts and Forecasters Are Saying After Monday’s Close

Despite Monday’s downgrades, Wall Street consensus is still cautiously positive on Netflix — just with a much wider range of outcomes than a week ago.

3.1 Consensus ratings and 12‑month price targets

Across major aggregators:

• TipRanks:
  • Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”, based on roughly 28 Buys, 7 Holds, and 2 Sells over the last three months.
  • Average 12‑month price target: about $137–139, implying roughly 35–37% upside from around $100. ^[23]
• MarketBeat:
  • Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” as well.
  • Average target: around $131–132, ~36% upside from the mid‑$90s, with individual targets running from roughly $72 to $152.50. ^[24]
• StockAnalysis / ValueInvesting.io / other forecast sites:
  • Average 12‑month target in the low‑to‑mid $130s, again pointing to ~35–38% upside versus current prices. ^[25]

Put simply: the Street still sees upside from here, but not because of Monday. Rather, those targets reflect a mix of:

• solid underlying business trends;
• expected cost and revenue synergies if the Warner deal closes; and
• the option value that Netflix could walk away and collect a large breakup fee if the political environment turns hostile.

3.2 Diverging views: who’s bullish and who’s cautious?

Cautious / bearish camp

• Rosenblatt, Pivotal, Huber Research all question whether the Warner assets justify the price and antitrust headache. They see:
  • higher leverage and interest expense;
  • a multi‑year slog to integrate two massive content libraries; and
  • the risk that regulators force asset sales or tough behavioral conditions that dilute the original strategic logic. ^[26]
• Morningstar says Warner shareholders “win big” at this price and plans to raise its fair value estimate for Warner Bros while cutting Netflix’s, calling the auction price “exorbitant.” ^[27]

Constructive / bullish camp

• BofA and some other large brokers argue the deal locks down an unprecedented IP portfolio — HBO, DC, Game of Thrones, Harry Potter — and deepens Netflix’s moat in premium scripted content. They concede the price is steep but say Netflix’s global distribution and tech stack can unlock value competitors can’t. ^[28]
• Canaccord Genuity, for example, keeps a Buy rating and one of the highest targets (around $152.50), framing the deal as a long‑term growth accelerator rather than a short‑term earnings booster. TechStock²+2Yahoo Finance+2

Net result: The spread of price targets has widened dramatically, from the low‑$90s to the mid‑$150s. That’s exactly what you’d expect when a stock is tied to a binary, politically sensitive mega‑merger.

4. Don’t Ignore the Fundamentals: Netflix’s Core Business Going Into 2026

Beneath the M&A fireworks, Netflix’s operating business is still growing briskly.

4.1 Q3 2025 recap

In October, Netflix reported third‑quarter 2025 results that were strong on revenue but marred by a surprise tax expense: ^[29]

• Revenue: about $11.5 billion, up 17% year‑over‑year and in line with Wall Street estimates.
• Net income: around $2.5 billion, roughly 8% higher than a year ago.
• EPS:$5.87, well below expectations near $6.9+, due to an unexpected $619 million tax charge linked to a Brazilian dispute.
• Operating margin: about 28%; management said margins would have exceeded their guidance (low‑30% range) without the one‑off tax hit.

For Q4, Netflix guided to:

• $11.96 billion in revenue, slightly ahead of consensus;
• strong full‑year growth (~16% revenue increase); and
• continuing momentum in its ad‑supported tier and paid‑sharing crackdown, which have both been important drivers in 2024–2025. ^[30]

Analysts generally view the Brazil tax issue as non‑recurring, not a structural profitability problem.

4.2 Strategic growth levers still intact

Across recent coverage, several long‑term drivers for Netflix keep showing up: ^[31]

• Advertising: Netflix is posting its strongest ad‑sales quarters ever and sees a long runway in global ad‑supported streaming.
• Pricing power: With deeper IP (and potentially HBO and DC), Netflix can experiment with tiering and regional pricing while still being the default streaming choice for many households.
• Games and live events: Expansion into gaming and live sports/entertainment — including NFL games — aims to boost engagement and diversify revenue.
• Global scale & AI‑driven personalization: Netflix’s recommendation engine and data advantage continue to be competitive differentiators against rivals like Disney+, Amazon Prime Video and YouTube.

The key question for investors is whether the Warner deal enhances or undermines these strengths by adding debt, political risk and integration complexity.

5. Macro Backdrop Heading Into December 9

Netflix is not trading in a vacuum. Monday’s session also reflected broader market jitters:

• The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq all finished lower (about ‑0.4% to ‑0.5%), pulling back after the S&P had moved within 0.3% of its all‑time closing high on Friday. ^[32]
• Investors are laser‑focused on the Federal Reserve’s final 2025 meeting, which runs December 9–10. Futures markets are pricing a high probability of a 0.25‑point rate cut on Wednesday, December 10. ^[33]
• A tame inflation report last week reinforced hopes for easier policy, but Monday’s modest risk‑off tone suggests traders are de‑risking a bit ahead of the decision. ^[34]

For Netflix specifically, lower long‑term rates are usually supportive (growth stocks benefit from cheaper discount rates), but when a company is about to pile on debt for a mega‑deal, investors also worry about interest expense, credit ratings and refinancing risk.

6. Key Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 9

Here’s what traders and investors should keep an eye on overnight and into Tuesday’s U.S. pre‑market:

6.1 Any new headlines on the Warner–Netflix–Paramount triangle

1. Warner Bros. board reaction
   • The board has said it will review Paramount’s bid but, for now, still recommends the Netflix deal. Any late‑night or early‑morning filing hinting at a shift in stance could move all three stocks sharply at the open. ^[35]
2. Regulatory or political commentary
   • Additional comments from the White House, DOJ, FTC, or key members of Congress on either bid could sway odds of approval in market models. Traders care less about rhetoric and more about signs of formal antitrust investigations or hearings. ^[36]
3. Statements from Netflix or Paramount management
   • Netflix co‑CEO Ted Sarandos has already called Paramount’s hostile move “entirely expected” and expressed confidence in closing the deal, while questioning the job‑cut “synergies” touted by Paramount. ^[37]
   • Any new blog posts, investor letters or TV interviews outlining deal financing, deleveraging plans or potential concessions could stabilize or further unsettle sentiment.
4. How WBD and Paramount Skydance trade overseas and in pre‑market
   • These stocks are key sentiment barometers: continued rallies in WBD and PSKY alongside selling in NFLX would suggest the market believes the price war and regulatory drama aren’t over. ^[38]

6.2 Pre‑market trading and options activity in NFLX

• Given Monday’s heavy volume and large 4‑session slide, pre‑market order flow (particularly from large ETFs and options‑linked hedging) can set the tone for the day.
• Options data show implied volatility in the low‑30% range, elevated but not extreme, which implies traders are braced for wide daily ranges, but not necessarily a meltdown. ^[39]

Watch for:

• Whether large put positions get closed (a positive sign), or new hedges are added.
• Any unusually high activity around short‑dated calls or puts that could feed into intraday gamma moves.

6.3 Broader macro catalysts

On the macro front heading into Tuesday:

• The Fed meeting starts Tuesday (Dec 9), with the rate decision and press conference scheduled for Wednesday afternoon. Markets expect a cut; surprise hawkishness would be a headwind for richly valued growth stocks, including Netflix. ^[40]
• Economic calendars show no single data release on Tuesday morning that rivals Wednesday’s Fed decision, but any upside surprise in U.S. yields or dollar strength could put extra pressure on tech and media names. ^[41]

For short‑term traders, the risk is a double‑whammy: deal headlines colliding with macro volatility as the Fed meeting gets underway.

7. How Different Types of Investors Might Think About Netflix Now

(This section is general market commentary, not personalized investment advice.)

If you’re a short‑term trader

• Expect big swings. NFLX has moved 3–5% in single sessions repeatedly over the past week and could easily do so again as headlines cross. ^[42]
• The stock is sitting in the lower part of its recent trading range, not far above longer‑term support levels in the $80s, while resistance has started to form around $103–105. ^[43]
• News‑driven gaps — up or down — are likely to be faded or amplified by options flows, so risk management and position sizing matter more than usual.

If you’re a medium‑ to long‑term investor

Key questions to ask yourself:

1. Do you believe the Warner deal ultimately closes — and on roughly current terms?
   • If yes, you’re betting on a future Netflix that controls a massive IP library and can monetize it across films, series, games and live events globally.
   • If no, you may view Netflix as overpaying for uncertainty while accepting the risk of a multi‑billion‑dollar break fee or years of limbo.
2. Are you comfortable with more leverage and regulatory overhang?
   • Credit analysts have already highlighted the impact of the deal financing on Netflix’s balance sheet and credit metrics, even if the company remains investment‑grade. ^[44]
3. How much weight do you put on Netflix’s core fundamentals?
   • Revenue is still growing in the mid‑teens, operating margins are high, and the company continues to generate significant free cash flow even after heavy content investment. ^[45]
4. Where do you land between the extremes of Wall Street views?
   • Bears see a “very risky” mega‑deal that could crimp returns for years; bulls see an opportunity to lock down Hollywood’s crown jewels and extend Netflix’s dominance. ^[46]

Given how polarized those viewpoints are, many investors may choose to wait for more clarity — on regulators, on Warner’s board response, and on Netflix’s detailed financing plan — before making big new commitments.

8. Bottom Line Going Into the December 9 Open

After the bell on December 8, Netflix sits at the center of a rare, live‑fire mega‑cap M&A battle:

• The stock is under pressure, hovering in the mid‑$90s after several days of heavy selling. ^[47]
• A $72B Warner acquisition with $5.8B in potential regulatory break fees has turned what was a relatively clean growth story into a complex political and antitrust saga. ^[48]
• Paramount’s $108B hostile bid ensures the drama won’t end quickly and keeps pressure on Netflix to justify its own offer. ^[49]
• Yet, consensus analyst forecasts still imply 30–40% upside over the next year if Netflix can navigate the turbulence and keep its core streaming engine humming. ^[50]

For Tuesday’s open, the most important inputs will be overnight headlines, pre‑market price action, and the evolving odds of regulatory approval versus a blockbuster breakup. Anyone trading NFLX into December 9 should assume elevated volatility, binary news risk, and a market that can change its mind quickly as new information arrives.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice, investment recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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