Netflix (NFLX) Stock After the Warner Bros. Deal: Split, Selloff and 2026 Forecasts Explained

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) has crammed a year’s worth of headlines into just a few weeks:
a 10‑for‑1 stock split, a $82.7 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, multiple legal investigations, a consumer class-action lawsuit, and a sharp pullback in the share price.

As of the latest close on December 10, 2025, Netflix stock finished at $92.71, down 4.1% on the day and roughly 15% lower over the past month, significantly underperforming the S&P 500. ^[1]

Since November 21, 2025, NFLX has fallen about 11% from roughly $104.31 (split‑adjusted) as investors digest deal risk, regulatory noise and an earnings wobble, even while Wall Street’s 12‑month price targets still imply substantial upside. ^[2]

Below is a deep dive into all the major Netflix stock news, forecasts and analyses from November 21, 2025 onward, and what they might mean for investors watching NFLX.

1. Netflix stock price now, and what changed after the split

On October 30, 2025, Netflix’s board approved a 10‑for‑1 forward stock split “to reset the market price” into a range more accessible to employees and stock‑option holders. Shareholders of record on November 10 received nine additional shares after the close on November 14, and trading began on a split‑adjusted basis on November 17. ^[3]

In practical terms:

• Pre‑split, NFLX traded around four figures per share.
• Post‑split, one share costs around $90–$105, making the stock feel more “affordable” to smaller investors. ^[4]

However, the split didn’t prevent volatility:

• Nov. 21, 2025: NFLX closed near $104.31 after choppy post‑split trading. ^[5]
• Dec. 10, 2025: NFLX closed at $92.71, down about 11% from Nov. 21 and roughly mid‑teens down over the past month, while the S&P 500 gained about 1.8% over the same period. ^[6]
• Over the last week, separate data from Quiver Quantitative shows Netflix shares fell around 7%, making NFLX one of the more heavily searched tickers on that platform. ^[7]

This selloff has been driven less by the split itself and more by three intertwined issues:
(1) an expensive mega‑acquisition, (2) earnings that missed expectations, and (3) a wave of legal, political and antitrust scrutiny.

2. A quick Netflix timeline since November 21, 2025

Here’s how the Netflix story has evolved from November 21 onward:

• Nov. 21: Coverage highlights Netflix as one of several early bidders for Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) assets amid media consolidation rumors, while multiple law firms publicize investigations into possible securities‑law violations at Netflix. ^[8]
• Nov. 26: The Schall Law Firm reiterates that NFLX investors can join a fraud investigation into Netflix, echoing earlier announcements on Nov. 13 and Nov. 19. ^[9]
• Dec. 5: Netflix formally announces it will acquire Warner Bros. studio and streaming businesses for a total enterprise value of $82.7 billion (equity value $72 billion), following a weeks‑long bidding war. ^[10]
• Dec. 5–6: Analysts and financial media dissect the deal terms and price; options traders pile into trades tied to the “Warner Bros. sweepstakes,” and Netflix stock oscillates around the $100 mark. ^[11]
• Dec. 6: Quiver Quantitative reports Netflix stock is down 7% for the week, notes heavy insider selling (234 insider sales vs. zero buys over six months) but also sizeable institutional buying, and flags strong analyst interest. ^[12]
• Dec. 8: Pivotal Research downgrades Netflix from “Buy” to “Hold”, cutting its price target from $160 to $105 (split‑adjusted), citing concerns over the Warner Bros. valuation and risk. ^[13]
• Dec. 8–9:
  • Paramount Skydance launches a $108.4 billion hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share for the whole company, directly challenging Netflix’s more targeted bid. ^[14]
  • A consumer class‑action lawsuit is filed to block the Netflix–Warner deal, arguing it will reduce competition in U.S. subscription streaming. ^[15]
  • The Los Angeles Times and antitrust scholars outline hurdles that could derail the merger, from market‑share concerns to new theories of digital‑platform power. ^[16]
• Dec. 9–10: Analysts note that Netflix’s share price continues to lag the broader market; Zacks highlights a 14.9% one‑month decline and rates the stock “Hold” (Rank #3) with a forward P/E near 38, well above its industry average. ^[17]
• Dec. 10–11:
  • A Guardian report details the consumer lawsuit’s argument that the Warner deal would eliminate HBO Max as a full‑scale rival and hand Netflix control over marquee franchises such as Harry Potter, DC Comics and Game of Thrones. ^[18]
  • ABC News highlights that President Donald Trump has openly signaled he will be “involved” in deciding whether any Warner Bros. merger passes antitrust review, calling a Netflix takeover “a problem” given its market share – an uncommon level of presidential involvement in merger review. ^[19]
  • Reuters reports that Italian media group MFE (controlled by the Berlusconi family) urges Warner shareholders to back the Paramount bid instead, arguing Netflix’s proposal raises more regulatory risk. ^[20]

In short, since November 21 the story has shifted from post‑split volatility to a complex, high‑stakes acquisition drama.

3. Inside Netflix’s $82.7 billion Warner Bros. Discovery bet

Netflix’s proposed purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming businesses is easily one of the largest deals in entertainment history.

Key terms and strategic implications:

• Deal value: Enterprise value of $82.7 billion, equity value of $72 billion, according to Netflix’s own press materials and multiple financial outlets. ^[21]
• Structure: Warner Bros. Discovery first plans to spin off its linear TV networks into a separate company, Discovery Global, expected by Q3 2026. Netflix would then acquire the remaining studio and streaming operations, including Warner Bros. Pictures, DC Studios, HBO/HBO Max and associated IP. ^[22]
• Franchises gained: Netflix would effectively “buy” an entire vault of big‑name IP:
  Harry Potter, DC Comics, Game of Thrones, classic Warner films, and a deep TV library. ^[23]

From a valuation perspective, analysis from Barron’s and others suggests Netflix is paying about 25× Warner Bros.’ expected 2026 EBITDA, or roughly 14× after anticipated cost synergies, with the combined company’s debt potentially rising from about $16 billion to over $70 billion. ^[24]

Supportive analysts (including Oppenheimer and William Blair) argue that:

• The purchase equates to about 4.5 years of Netflix’s projected free cash flow,
• Could be EPS‑accretive by FY 2028, and
• Would solidify Netflix as the destination for premium scripted content globally. ^[25]

But skeptics worry that:

• The price is “exorbitant” relative to Warner’s standalone value,
• The added leverage could pressure Netflix’s credit rating and strategic flexibility, and
• Integration of a major legacy studio culture into a tech‑driven streamer will be challenging. ^[26]

In other words: strategically transformative, financially demanding.

4. Paramount’s hostile counter‑bid and the political wild card

The Warner Bros. saga is not a one‑horse race.

On December 8, Paramount Skydance made a $108.4 billion hostile bid for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, offering $30 per share in cash, substantially richer than Netflix’s mix of cash and stock valued at about $27.75 per share. ^[27]

Some important wrinkles:

• Scope: Netflix’s deal targets Warner’s studio + streaming businesses; Paramount wants the entire company, including news and cable networks. ^[28]
• Regulatory angle:
  • For Netflix, the big question is streaming dominance – antitrust agencies will look hard at the combined share of subscription video and viewing time. ^[29]
  • For Paramount, the concern is cross‑ownership of major broadcast and cable networks and how that interacts with prior concessions it made in its own deals. ^[30]
• European pushback: Italy’s MFE has publicly backed the Paramount bid, arguing Netflix’s deal is more likely to face tough U.S. and EU scrutiny. ^[31]
• Washington’s view: President Trump has explicitly raised antitrust concerns about a Netflix acquisition and signaled he would be personally involved in evaluating any Warner Bros. merger – a departure from the usual arm’s‑length White House stance. ^[32]

For Netflix shareholders, the Paramount bid is a double‑edged sword:

• If Warner accepts Paramount’s superior offer, Netflix could walk away (likely paying or collecting any breakup fee depending on how the contracts are written) and avoid a huge leverage increase.
• If Netflix ups its offer or Warner sticks with Netflix despite richer bids, the price – and the political/regulatory blowback – could rise further.

Either way, the uncertainty is a core reason NFLX has been trading under pressure.

5. Antitrust, lawsuits and legal investigations

Antitrust risk

Antitrust scholars estimate that a combined Netflix + HBO Max could account for roughly 35% of U.S. streaming hours, crossing the ~30% market‑share threshold where U.S. courts traditionally presume a merger may lessen competition under Section 7 of the Clayton Act. ^[33]

Netflix will likely argue that:

• The relevant market is broader than subscription streaming, including cable, satellite TV, and even platforms like YouTube;
• Consumers routinely “multi‑home” (subscribe to multiple services), which complicates simple market‑share math. ^[34]

Still, the antitrust review is unlikely to be quick or simple.

Consumer class‑action lawsuit

On December 9, a Warner Bros. Discovery subscriber filed a proposed class‑action suit in U.S. federal court seeking to block the $72 billion deal. The complaint argues that: ^[35]

• The acquisition would remove HBO Max as one of Netflix’s closest rivals in subscription streaming,
• Concentration would make it easier for Netflix to raise prices, and
• Consumers have standing under U.S. antitrust law to challenge anticompetitive mergers, independent of government enforcement.

Netflix has called the suit “meritless”, saying it’s an attempt by plaintiffs’ lawyers to capitalize on the publicity around the deal. ^[36]

Shareholder investigations

In parallel, at least three shareholder‑rights law firms – including Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd and The Schall Law Firm – have announced securities‑fraud investigations into Netflix, inviting investors to contact them. ^[37]

While these “investigation alerts” are common around big stock moves, they contribute to the sense of legal overhang hanging over NFLX in late 2025.

6. Netflix’s core business: Q3 2025 earnings and growth drivers

Amid all the deal drama, Netflix’s underlying business remains strong – though the latest quarter had a notable blemish.

Q3 2025 results

For Q3 2025 (reported October 21):

• Revenue: $11.51 billion, up 17% year‑over‑year, essentially in line with forecasts. ^[38]
• Operating margin: 28%, below the prior 31.5% guidance because of a $619 million one‑time expense tied to a Brazilian tax dispute. ^[39]
• Net income: about $2.5 billion, up around 7–8% year‑over‑year but short of what analysts had modeled, causing an after‑hours share drop. ^[40]
• EPS: about $5.87, below consensus estimates near $6.9 (pre‑split basis), ending a streak of earnings beats. ^[41]

Management emphasized that, excluding the Brazil tax charge, operating margins would have beaten guidance and they do not expect the dispute to materially impact future results. ^[42]

Subscribers, engagement and ads

Recent data compiled from Netflix and third‑party sources paints a picture of a still‑growing platform: ^[43]

• ~301.6 million global subscribers as of August 2025, up strongly since 2023.
• Netflix has one of the largest shares of U.S. SVOD market, with roughly 21% share, second only to Amazon Prime Video.
• Its ad‑supported tier now reaches an estimated 94 million monthly active users worldwide, with about 40% of new signups in available markets choosing the ad plan.
• Engagement is intense: U.S. users reportedly spend over an hour per day on Netflix, more than on TikTok, YouTube, Hulu or Spotify.

This combination of subscriber scale, high engagement and growing advertising revenue is what underpins most bullish long‑term NFLX forecasts.

7. Wall Street forecasts for Netflix stock into 2026

Despite the recent slide, analyst consensus still sees room for upside – but targets and ratings have been drifting lower since the Warner Bros. deal.

Analyst rating changes since late November

Key moves:

• Barclays cut its price target from $1,100 to $110 (split‑adjusted) on November 18, maintaining an “Equal Weight” rating and signaling modest near‑term downside from then‑current levels. ^[44]
• Pivotal Research downgraded Netflix from “Buy” to “Hold” on December 8, cutting its target from $160 to $105. ^[45]
• A Barron’s piece notes Seaport Research trimmed its target from $138 to $115, still seeing more than 20% upside and calling the selloff “overdone,” but acknowledging a more leveraged, lower‑multiple Netflix if the deal closes. ^[46]

Even with these cuts, the group remains broadly constructive.

Consensus targets and implied upside

Across several aggregators (MarketBeat, TipRanks, StockAnalysis, GuruFocus and others), recent snapshots show: ^[47]

• Consensus rating: Between “Moderate Buy” and “Outperform”, with a solid majority of analysts rating NFLX as Buy or equivalent and only a small minority at “Sell.”
• Average 12‑month price target: Typically in the $130–$140 range, depending on the sample — implying roughly 35–45% upside from the recent ~$93 share price.
• Target range: Lows clustered in the low $90s, highs up to $160 (all split‑adjusted).

Finbold’s synthesis, leaning on TipRanks data, pegs the average target around $137.65, again implying high‑30s percentage upside, with Oppenheimer reiterating an “Outperform” and a $145 target on December 5, explicitly framing the Warner deal as strategically attractive and ultimately EPS‑accretive. ^[48]

However, not all valuation lenses agree:

• Zacks currently rates Netflix “Hold”, noting a forward P/E around 38, well above the ~15× average of its Broadcast/TV peer group. ^[49]
• GuruFocus’ fair‑value model actually suggests modest downside from around $100, even as it reports an average Street target in the mid‑$130s and an “Outperform” consensus. ^[50]

In short, the Street still expects Netflix stock to rise over the next year, but the recent flood of deals‑related risk has forced many analysts to trim their optimism.

8. Sentiment, insiders and institutional flows

Sentiment around NFLX has become more polarized:

• Weekly performance: Down about 7% in the week around December 6, amid heavy news flow and deal anxiety. ^[51]
• Insider trading: Over the last six months, Quiver Quantitative reports 234 insider sales and zero open‑market purchases, including significant selling by co‑founder Reed Hastings and other senior executives – though some of this likely reflects programmed sales and option exercises typical for a maturing tech company. ^[52]
• Institutional flows: Despite the insider selling, 1,832 institutional investors increased positions vs. 1,411 reducing in their latest reported quarter, with several large asset managers adding sizable stakes. ^[53]
• Congressional trades: Members of the U.S. Congress have traded NFLX a dozen times in the past six months, skewed toward net buying, including purchases by multiple representatives and at least one senator. ^[54]

Options activity has also spiked, with some strategists recommending call‑option structures tied to the Warner Bros. “takeover derby” rather than outright stock purchases, underscoring just how event‑driven the near‑term outlook has become. ^[55]

9. Key upside and downside scenarios for Netflix stock in 2026

This is not investment advice, but it’s useful to summarize how bulls and bears are thinking about NFLX heading into 2026.

Bull case: Netflix becomes the unchallenged streaming super‑platform

In the optimistic scenario:

• The Warner Bros. deal closes on time, perhaps with manageable remedies (limited divestitures or behavioral conditions). ^[56]
• Netflix successfully integrates Warner’s studios and HBO Max, using its recommendation engine, ad tech and global scale to squeeze more value out of each franchise. ^[57]
• Revenue continues to grow in the mid‑teens annually, powered by price increases, ad‑tier expansion and international growth, while operating margins trend higher as one‑time items fade. ^[58]
• Debt remains high but manageable thanks to strong free cash flow, and fears about overleverage prove overblown.

In this setup, the Street’s $130–$140 price targets could be conservative if investors are willing to pay a premium multiple for a dominant streaming and IP platform.

Bear case: Deal blocked, value destroyed or growth stalls

In the pessimistic scenario:

• Regulators or courts block the Warner Bros. deal, leaving Netflix with a multi‑year distraction and only partial recovery of sunk transaction costs. ^[59]
• Alternatively, the deal closes but:
  • Integration proves messy,
  • Debt levels constrain flexibility, and
  • Netflix’s growth slows just as it takes on a larger fixed‑cost base. ^[60]
• The consumer class‑action and shareholder lawsuits gain traction, increasing legal costs or forcing settlements. ^[61]
• Competition from Amazon, Disney, and emerging players erodes Netflix’s pricing power and ad growth more than expected. ^[62]

In this case, the current ~38× forward earnings multiple could prove too rich, and the stock might need to re‑rate lower even if revenues keep growing.

10. What all this means if you follow Netflix stock

From a news and analysis standpoint, three themes dominate the Netflix (NFLX) story since November 21, 2025:

1. Big swing, big risk
   Netflix is making a massive, high‑leverage bet on owning both the pipes and the premium content of Hollywood. The Warner Bros. acquisition could cement its dominance — or become an expensive distraction if regulators, courts or politics intervene.
2. Strong core business, but expectations are high
   Double‑digit revenue growth, 300M+ global subscribers, deep engagement and a fast‑scaling ad tier show that Netflix’s underlying business remains healthy. But the stock still trades at a premium multiple, so missteps – like the recent EPS miss and tax charge – are punished quickly. ^[63]
3. Wall Street is cautious‑optimistic, not euphoric
   Consensus still points to mid‑30s to mid‑40s percent upside over 12 months, yet several high‑profile firms have cut price targets or downgraded ratings since the deal announcement. Investors are being paid to take on more uncertainty, not less. ^[64]

If you already own or are considering Netflix stock, it’s crucial to:

• Separate short‑term event risk (deal approvals, lawsuits, political noise) from long‑term fundamentals (subscriber scale, ad monetization, IP depth).
• Stress‑test your own thesis against both the bull and bear scenarios above.
• Remember that nothing here is personalized financial advice; your risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio context matter at least as much as any analyst target.

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