Netflix (NFLX) Stock on December 5, 2025: Warner Bros Mega‑Deal, Post‑Split Price, and 2026 Forecast

Updated: December 5, 2025

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is trading lower today as Wall Street digests a historic $72 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming business, fresh regulatory risk, and still‑strong but imperfect fundamentals after a recent 10‑for‑1 stock split. ^[1]

Key takeaways

Share price today: Netflix trades around $101 per share, down about 2% on Friday, with intraday trading between roughly $98 and $103 following the Warner Bros deal announcement.
Massive acquisition: Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Bros Discovery’s TV and film studios plus its streaming division in a $72 billion cash‑and‑stock deal, valuing the business at about $82.7 billion including debt and paying $27.75 per WBD share. ^[2]
Regulatory & antitrust overhang: The deal would combine Netflix with HBO Max and other Warner streaming brands, drawing intense scrutiny from US and European regulators, cinema groups and former Warner executives who warn it could reduce competition and hurt theaters. ^[3]
Fundamentals still strong: Q3 2025 revenue hit $11.51 billion, up about 17% year‑on‑year, with robust free cash flow and record engagement, though operating margins fell due to a $619 million Brazilian tax charge and EPS missed the company’s internal target. ^[4]
Outlook: Management expects Q4 2025 revenue around $11.96 billion (about 17% growth), full‑year 2025 revenue of roughly $45.1 billion and an operating margin near 29%, with free cash flow guided up to about $9 billion. ^[5]
10‑for‑1 stock split now complete: Netflix completed a 10‑for‑1 split on November 17, 2025, taking the share price from above $1,000 to around $100 without changing the company’s value. ^[6]
Analysts mostly bullish: Across major broker surveys, the average 12‑month price target clusters around $134–$136, implying roughly 25–35% upside from current levels, with targets ranging from the low $70s to $160. ^[7]
But not everyone is convinced: Huber Research has double‑downgraded Netflix to Underweight, and the stock has sold off in recent days after large insider selling by co‑founder Reed Hastings. ^[8]

Netflix stock today: price, performance and volatility

As of this afternoon on December 5, 2025, Netflix shares change hands at about $101.17, down roughly 2% on the session. The stock opened near $98.7, has traded between $97.9 and $103, and volume is elevated as traders react to the Warner Bros announcement.

Looking at the latest closing data:

On December 4, Netflix closed at $103.22, down 0.71% on heavy volume of 51.3 million shares – well above its recent average – with a market value around $437 billion, a P/E ratio near 43, and a 52‑week range of $82.11 to $134.12. ^[9]
On December 3, shares fell 4.9% intraday after director and co‑founder Reed Hastings sold about 375,470 shares at an average price of $108.43, cutting his stake by nearly 99% to fewer than 4,000 shares. ^[10]
On December 2, Netflix closed at $109.35 per share, before the insider sale and deal headlines intensified. ^[11]

Despite the recent pullback, Netflix stock is still up strongly versus its pre‑2024 levels and roughly 16% higher so far this year, following an 80% surge in 2024 before the split. ^[12]

Importantly, the price action is now on a split‑adjusted basis: pre‑split highs around $1,340 are equivalent to about $134 today, while the apparent 90% “crash” after November 17 was purely mechanical. ^[13]

Inside the $72 billion Warner Bros Discovery mega‑deal

The biggest driver of Netflix’s stock narrative today is its agreement to buy Warner Bros Discovery’s TV, film studios and streaming division in a blockbuster cash‑and‑stock transaction. ^[14]

Key terms:

Netflix will pay $27.75 per Warner Bros Discovery share, made up of $23.25 in cash plus roughly $4.50 in Netflix stock. ^[15]
The deal values Warner’s equity around $72 billion and the business at about $82.7 billion including debt. ^[16]
The acquisition covers HBO Max, DC Studios, Warner Bros film and TV production, and franchises like Game of Thrones, Harry Potter and DC Comics, but excludes cable networks such as CNN and Discovery, which will be spun off into a separate company. ^[17]
Each Warner shareholder will receive a mix of cash and Netflix stock, and Warner will first spin off its global networks unit (“Discovery Global”) with closing of the Netflix deal expected after that spin in Q3 2026. ^[18]
Netflix has agreed to a $5.8 billion break‑up fee if it walks away, while Warner would owe $2.8 billion if it backs out. Netflix projects $2–3 billion in annual cost savings by year three post‑closing. ^[19]

Strategically, this is a huge pivot. Netflix, which largely avoided major M&A for years, will suddenly own one of Hollywood’s richest content libraries plus the HBO brand, while also inheriting an established streaming base of roughly 130 million subscribers from Warner’s services. ^[20]

Netflix argues the combination will:

Expand its film and series catalog dramatically
Enable bundled streaming offers (Netflix + HBO Max) at lower prices per service
Increase long‑term content spending and U.S. production
Create more jobs and opportunities for creative talent worldwide ^[21]

Investors, however, are far from unanimous.

Antitrust, integration and market nerves

Regulators in both the US and Europe have already signaled that the proposed merger will face intense scrutiny, given it unites what is currently the world’s largest streaming service with a key rival. ^[22]

Pushback is coming from several fronts:

Cinema exhibitors warn that another major studio effectively disappearing into a streaming giant could mean fewer films in theaters, lower revenues and job losses. A leading European cinema body called it a “double risk” for theaters. ^[23]
Former WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar has said he “could not think of a more effective way to reduce competition in Hollywood” than selling Warner Bros Discovery to Netflix. ^[24]
Members of Congress and European regulators are already highlighting the potential harm to consumers and smaller production companies if one company controls such a large share of premium content and streaming subscribers. ^[25]

Analysts expect a long, uncomfortable review process, with a real possibility that Netflix will be forced to divest assets (for example parts of HBO or specific streaming bundles) to get the deal over the line. ^[26]

The market response reflects that uncertainty:

Warner Bros Discovery shares have jumped on the bid.
Netflix, by contrast, fell about 3–4% in pre‑market trading, and is still down around 2% intraday as investors weigh the price tag and execution risk against long‑term benefits. ^[27]

Commentary from Economic Times and other outlets shows investors also linking the deal to heightened antitrust worries that could weigh on the valuation in the run‑up to Netflix’s Q4 2025 earnings, which are seen as a key test of momentum. ^[28]

Fundamentals remain robust: Q3 2025 earnings and outlook

Beneath the deal drama, Netflix’s underlying business is still delivering solid growth.

For Q3 2025, Netflix reported: ^[29]

Revenue: $11.51 billion (up about 17% YoY)
Operating income: roughly $3.25 billion
Operating margin:28.2%, down from over 31% guidance
Net income: about $2.55 billion
Diluted EPS:$5.87, up ~9% year‑on‑year but below the company’s own internal forecast

The primary culprit for the margin shortfall was a one‑off charge of about $619 million tied to a Brazilian tax dispute, which management says should not materially affect future results. Adjusting for this, Netflix has indicated margins would have exceeded its 31.5% target. ^[30]

Other key operating metrics:

Free cash flow: about $2.66 billion in Q3 and $7.6 billion over the first nine months of 2025, with full‑year FCF now guided to around $9 billion. ^[31]
Engagement: Netflix reports its highest view share ever in the US and UK, supported by global hits, expanded live programming and high‑profile sports events. ^[32]
Advertising: external analyses suggest ad revenue is roughly doubling year‑on‑year, with Netflix’s ad‑supported tier accounting for about half of new sign‑ups in markets where it’s offered and ad‑tier membership up around 35% quarter‑over‑quarter. ^[33]

Guidance

Management’s current guidance, reiterated in Q3 commentary and widely reported by independent analysts, calls for: ^[34]

Q4 2025 revenue: ~$11.96 billion, about 17% YoY growth
Q4 operating margin: ~23.9%, slightly above last year’s quarter despite heavier content and sports spending
Full‑year 2025 revenue: around $45.1 billion (+16% YoY)
Full‑year operating margin: about 29% (trimmed from ~30% due to the Brazil tax charge)
Full‑year free cash flow: raised to ~$9 billion

Third‑party sites currently list January 15, 2026 as the expected date for Netflix’s next earnings release, though this is always subject to change. ^[35]

Several analyses note that the core story remains: high‑margin, cash‑generative streaming growth, driven by pricing power, password‑sharing crackdowns, a scaling ad business and growing contributions from gaming and live events. ^[36]

Post‑split Netflix: what the 10‑for‑1 split means

On October 30, 2025, Netflix’s board approved a 10‑for‑1 stock split via a stock dividend. Shareholders of record on November 10 received nine additional shares for each one they held after the close on November 14, and trading began on a split‑adjusted basis on November 17. ^[37]

The stated intent:

bring the market price into a range that is more accessible for employees and broaden participation in the company’s equity programs. ^[38]

As a result:

Pre‑split prices above $1,300 correspond to roughly $130 today. ^[39]
The apparent 90% “crash” in the share price on November 17 (from around $1,000 to about $100) was a purely mechanical adjustment, not a fundamental collapse in value. ^[40]

Coverage from outlets like The Motley Fool and 24/7 Wall St. has emphasized that the split simply makes single shares and options contracts cheaper, potentially increasing liquidity and retail participation, while leaving the company’s earnings power and valuation multiples unchanged. ^[41]

Today, Netflix trades at roughly 43–46 times trailing earnings, a premium that leaves the stock sensitive to any disappointment in margins, subscriber trends or regulatory news – a key reason why the Brazil tax charge, insider selling and Warner deal headlines have hit the share price disproportionately hard. ^[42]

Analyst ratings and price targets: mostly bullish, with pockets of caution

Across Wall Street, the consensus stance on Netflix remains positive, even after the recent volatility.

Consensus snapshots

Recent surveys from major data providers show:

Investing.com: Consensus rating “Buy” based on around 44 analysts, with 34 Buy, 13 Hold and 2 Sell ratings. The average 12‑month target is about $134.44, with a high of $160 and a low of $77. ^[43]
MarketBeat & TradingView: Around 45–46 analysts with an average target of $134–$136, high near $160 and low in the low $70s, implying roughly 25–35% upside versus today’s ~$100 price. ^[44]
Economic Times & 24/7 Wall St.: Similar consensus figures, framing the 12‑month target range as $133.90–$135.20, with some bullish models pointing to $160+ on the back of high‑teens revenue growth and strong free cash flow. ^[45]
Bitget analysis: Aggregating Wall Street forecasts, Bitget notes 20–30% potential upside by late 2026, with most targets clustered around $135–$140 per share post‑split. ^[46]

Several high‑profile research houses remain constructive:

Evercore ISI reiterates an Outperform rating and a pre‑split $1,375 price target (about $137.50 post‑split), expecting mid‑20% EPS growth through 2028, fueled by international expansion, live events and advertising. ^[47]
Other firms such as MoffettNathanson, Rosenblatt and Canaccord Genuity have adjusted their targets to reflect the split (for example, Rosenblatt and Canaccord now sit around $152–$152.50), but continue to rate the stock Buy. ^[48]

Longer‑term scenario modeling from 24/7 Wall St. suggests a potential path where Netflix reaches: ^[49]

About $121.5 by end‑2025
$143.7 in 2026
$154.6 in 2027
$165.9 in 2028
$189.4 in 2029
Around $222 by 2030

Those projections assume sustained double‑digit revenue growth, margin expansion and a premium P/E multiple and are of course highly uncertain.

Emerging skepticism

Not all coverage is upbeat:

Huber Research has issued a double downgrade to Underweight on Netflix today, signaling growing concern in at least some corners of Wall Street. ^[50]
Detailed analysis from firms like RoboForex points to falling margins, limited transparency around ad revenues, and a rich valuation (forward P/E in the mid‑40s) as reasons why shares have repeatedly sold off after strong headline numbers. ^[51]

Overall, the picture is one of a broadly bullish consensus with a widening band of outcomes, especially now that the Warner Bros transaction introduces substantial regulatory and execution risk.

Why the stock has sold off despite strong earnings

Several overlapping factors explain why NFLX has pulled back roughly 5% in recent sessions, even as Q3 revenue hit records and guidance remains solid: ^[52]

Regulatory overhang
- The Warner Bros deal raises the specter of multi‑year antitrust battles, potential asset sales and stricter oversight of Netflix’s market power. Investors dislike uncertainty, and some are stepping to the sidelines until the antitrust picture becomes clearer. ^[53]
Margin disappointment and Brazil tax dispute
- While revenue met expectations, profitability missed Netflix’s own target due to the one‑off Brazil tax charge, prompting concerns that 30%+ margins may be harder to sustain than hoped. ^[54]
Insider selling
- Reed Hastings’ sale of more than $40 million of stock and near‑complete exit from his personal stake triggered a 4.9% intraday sell‑off on December 3, amplifying existing jitters. ^[55]
Rich valuation
- With the stock trading at over 40 times earnings and near the upper end of its historical P/E range, even modest negative surprises in earnings, guidance or regulatory news can trigger outsized price moves as investors lock in profits. ^[56]
Macro and competitive backdrop
- Articles comparing Netflix with Disney and other media giants highlight that while Netflix is pulling ahead on streaming profits and free cash flow, it also faces fierce competition and macro sensitivity as a high‑multiple growth stock. ^[57]

Bull vs bear case for Netflix stock from here

Bull case

Supporters of Netflix emphasize:

Scale and focus: Netflix remains the pure‑play global streaming leader, without the drag of legacy TV networks or theme parks. Its focus has produced higher margins and stronger free cash flow than many diversified rivals. ^[58]
Content and IP depth: With Warner’s franchises, Netflix could command one of the deepest libraries in media, spanning HBO series, DC films, and the Harry Potter universe, alongside its own hits and growing gaming portfolio. ^[59]
Advertising and live events: Netflix’s ad business is growing quickly from a small base, and live events – from boxing to potential sports deals – add new revenue streams and engagement. ^[60]
Financial strength: Low net debt relative to cash generation, investment‑grade credit ratings and multi‑billion‑dollar free cash flow offer flexibility to fund content, acquisitions and buybacks even in a tougher macro environment. ^[61]
Analyst support: The cluster of $130–$150 price targets and long‑term forecasts up to around $220 by 2030 suggest many professionals view current weakness as a possible long‑term entry point. ^[62]

Bear case

Skeptics focus on:

Regulatory and integration risk: The Warner deal could be delayed, reshaped or blocked; even if approved, integrating a major studio and streaming rival will be complex and expensive. ^[63]
Valuation stretch: At a P/E above 40 and a rich forward multiple, Netflix leaves little margin for error if revenue growth slows, ad monetisation underwhelms or competitive pressure accelerates. ^[64]
Transparency concerns: Some analysts note the lack of detailed ad revenue disclosure and the company’s decision to stop reporting subscriber numbers, which can make it harder to assess the true drivers of growth. ^[65]
Insider and downgrade signals: Huber Research’s Underweight call and Hastings’ large sale are interpreted by some as signs that upside might be more limited from here. ^[66]

In short, Netflix sits at a crossroads: fundamentally strong and still growing, but now layered with mega‑deal risk and high expectations.

What investors should watch next

For anyone following or holding Netflix stock, key catalysts over the coming quarters include:

Regulatory milestones on the Warner deal
- Signals from the US Department of Justice, FTC and European regulators on preliminary reviews, potential remedies and timelines. Asset‑sale rumors or formal conditions will almost certainly move the stock. ^[67]
Q4 2025 earnings (expected mid‑January 2026)
- Revenue and margin versus guidance (~$11.96 billion revenue and ~23.9% operating margin).
- Ad‑tier growth, ARPU trends and early indications of how ad revenue is scaling.
- Free cash flow progress toward the $9 billion full‑year target. ^[68]
Updates on advertising, gaming and live events
- More detail on ad revenue and margins, traction of Netflix’s ad tech platform, and performance of gaming titles and live sports/entertainment events. ^[69]
Analyst revisions and ratings changes
- Changes in consensus EPS and price targets, or any additional downgrades/upgrades in response to the Warner integration plan, could shift sentiment quickly. ^[70]
Macro backdrop for growth stocks
- Interest‑rate expectations, tech/streaming sector sentiment and broader equity market risk appetite will continue to influence how much investors are willing to pay for Netflix’s growth. ^[71]

Final word

As of December 5, 2025, Netflix stock sits at the intersection of blockbuster ambition and elevated risk. The company is trying to cement itself as the definitive global entertainment platform – now potentially with HBO, DC and Harry Potter under its roof – but the price tag, regulatory complexity and already‑rich valuation leave little room for missteps.

For readers, it’s important to remember that none of this is investment advice. Analyst targets, long‑term forecasts and scenario models are just that – models. If you’re considering trading or investing in Netflix, you should evaluate your own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio needs, and, where appropriate, seek independent financial advice.