As traders get ready for Monday’s opening bell, Netflix stock (NASDAQ: NFLX) is coming off its first full week of trading after a high‑profile 10‑for‑1 stock split and a bruising reaction to its latest earnings report.
On Friday, November 21, 2025, split‑adjusted Netflix shares closed at $104.31, down about 1.3% on the day, with an intraday range of $103.81 to $106.53 and volume north of 41 million shares. [1] The stock now sits roughly 17% higher year to date, within a 52‑week range of $82.11 to $134.12, and values the company at around $440 billion. [2]
Here’s a deep dive into what matters most for Netflix investors and traders before U.S. markets reopen on Monday, November 24, 2025.
1. Netflix stock after the 10‑for‑1 split
Netflix completed a 10‑for‑1 forward stock split that took effect at the open on Monday, November 17, turning every pre‑split share into ten new shares. [3]
- Shareholders of record on November 10 received nine additional shares for each one they held, and trading began on a split‑adjusted basis on November 17. [4]
- The apparent 90% crash” from roughly $1,140 to about $110 earlier this week was purely mechanical, reflecting the split rather than a collapse in value. [5]
Despite the split, the fundamentals are unchanged: Netflix still sports a premium valuation. Reuters recently noted Netflix’s shares have surged more than 360% over the last three years, far outpacing peers like Disney and Comcast. [6]
Why it matters for Monday:
The split has made NFLX more affordable” for smaller traders and employee stock‑plan participants. Watch for post‑split volatility as options markets, technical traders, and retail flows continue to recalibrate around the new price level.
2. Q3 2025: Record revenue, painful Brazil tax hit
Netflix’s Q3 2025 results, released on October 21, remain the main fundamental backdrop for the stock.
From the company’s shareholder letter and subsequent coverage:
- Revenue: $11.51 billion, up about 17% year over year, exactly in line with guidance. [7]
- Operating margin: 28.2%, well below the 31.5% guidance due to a $619 million tax expense tied to a long‑running dispute with Brazilian authorities. [8]
- EPS: $5.87, missing Wall Street expectations by roughly a dollar. [9]
- Free cash flow: about $2.7 billion in the quarter, prompting Netflix to raise its full‑year 2025 FCF forecast to around $9 billion, up from $8–8.5 billion previously. [10]
Management stressed that, without the Brazil charge, operating margin would have exceeded guidance and that they do not expect the tax matter to materially affect future results. [11]
Looking ahead, Netflix is guiding for Q4 2025 revenue of $11.96 billion, up about 16.7% year over year, and expects full‑year revenue of $45.1 billion with an operating margin of about 29%. [12]
Why it matters for Monday:
Investors will keep debating whether the Q3 miss was a one‑off tax issue or a warning sign of margin pressure as content, tech, and sports costs rise. Any new commentary around the Brazil dispute or updated margin outlook could move the stock.
3. Warner Bros. Discovery bid: Bold expansion or risky detour?
The biggest new narrative around Netflix this week is its role in the potential breakup of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).
- Multiple reports confirm that Paramount, Comcast, and Netflix submitted non‑binding bids by the November 20 deadline set by WBD’s board. Netflix and Comcast are said to be focused on select parts of the company, while Paramount’s Skydance unit is eyeing a full takeover. [13]
- Analysts and industry press note that any deal would likely face intense regulatory scrutiny and could reshape Hollywood’s competitive landscape. [14]
The market reaction has been cautious:
- One widely cited note from an analyst at KeyBanc flagged concerns that a WBD acquisition could saddle Netflix with legacy assets and complicate its streamlined strategy, helping send the stock down roughly 3–4% mid‑week. [15]
This marks a shift from Netflix’s longstanding stance of favoring organic growth over big media acquisitions, a point reiterated as recently as its Q3 letter. [16]
Why it matters for Monday:
Any weekend headlines about WBD’s board reaction, competing offers, or regulatory pushback could drive NFLX in pre‑market trading. Traders should watch general media‑sector news as closely as Netflix‑specific headlines.
4. Ads and password‑sharing: The new growth engine
Netflix is quietly becoming an ad‑supported powerhouse.
- Its ad‑supported tier now reaches around 190 million monthly active viewers globally, and roughly 40% of new sign‑ups in its ad markets are choosing the cheaper ad plans. [17]
- Earlier in 2025, one analysis estimated that 55% of new sign‑ups in Q1 opted for ad tiers, underscoring the structural shift away from traditional ad‑free streaming. [18]
- Netflix expects ad revenue to more than double in 2025, off a still‑modest base, and has rolled out its own Netflix Ads Suite ad‑tech stack while integrating Amazon’s demand‑side platform globally and a Japanese DSP as of Q4. [19]
On the password‑sharing front, Netflix’s controversial crackdown has been an unexpected home run:
- One detailed review estimated that converting freeloaders” has added around 50 million paying subscribers, by turning an estimated 100 million sharing households into revenue‑generating accounts. [20]
- Reuters previously noted that the growth spurt from password sharing is now slowing, shifting investor focus back to content, pricing, and ads. [21]
Notably, Netflix stopped reporting quarterly subscriber counts in early 2025, asking investors to focus on revenue, margins, and engagement instead. [22] Third‑party estimates still peg its global subscriber base at about 300 million, with a total audience approaching one billion people when shared viewing is included. [23]
Why it matters for Monday:
Expect the market to react strongly to any new subscriber‑proxy data, such as third‑party app‑usage or ad‑tier adoption metrics. In the absence of official sub numbers, every data point on engagement and ad scale now carries extra weight.
5. Live sports: NFL Christmas games and World Cup rights
Live sports have become central to Netflix’s future narrative — and to the bull case for its advertising business.
- Netflix’s first exclusive NFL Christmas Day games in 2024 helped deliver the most‑streamed television day in U.S. history, with total viewing topping 50 billion minutes and the NFL matchups leading the pack. [24]
- For 2025, Netflix will again stream a Christmas doubleheader (Cowboys vs. Commanders and Lions vs. Vikings), with all plans including access to the games. [25]
- A three‑year agreement ensures at least one NFL Christmas game on Netflix annually through 2026. [26]
- On the international side, Netflix has secured U.S. broadcast rights for the FIFA Women’s World Cup in 2027 and 2031, a landmark streaming deal that should help attract both sports fans and advertisers focused on women’s sports. [27]
Meanwhile, streaming platforms overall now account for about 20% of global sports‑rights spending, up from 8% in 2021 — a jump driven by players like Netflix, Amazon, YouTube TV and DAZN. [28]
Why it matters for Monday:
With December approaching, investors are starting to model ad revenue and subscriber engagement from the NFL games and upcoming live events highlighted in the Q3 letter (including a Jake Paul vs. Gervonta Tank” Davis fight). [29] Sentiment around sports execution will increasingly feed into how the market values NFLX’s ad ambitions.
6. Streaming wars: Netflix is back at No. 1, but rivals are closing in
Data from research firm Parks Associates shows Netflix has regained the No. 1 streaming spot in the U.S., overtaking Amazon Prime Video after several years in second place. [30]
Key points from recent industry reports:
- As of late 2025, 91% of U.S. broadband households use at least one streaming service.
- Ad‑supported streaming is booming: about 46% of connected households use free or hybrid services like Tubi and Pluto TV, and nearly 80% of major subscription platforms (including Netflix, Disney+ and Hulu) now run a hybrid subscription + ads model. [31]
- Competitive pressure is intensifying. JustWatch data for Q3 2025 suggests that Disney+, Hulu, and other rivals have narrowed the gap with Netflix and Amazon as consumers rotate among services and re‑evaluate bundles. [32]
Why it matters for Monday:
Any updates on churn, pricing, or bundled deals in the streaming ecosystem can affect how investors see Netflix’s ability to sustain price hikes and ad growth in a more crowded, more profitable field.
7. What Wall Street is saying about NFLX
Analyst sentiment on Netflix is mixed heading into Monday’s session.
- JPMorgan this week cut its price target on Netflix from 127.50 to 124 (split‑adjusted) while maintaining a neutral rating, citing concerns about waning engagement, tougher competition, and potential complications from a Warner Bros. Discovery deal. [33]
- A quantitative valuation from Simply Wall St. pegs Netflix’s intrinsic value around $86.48 per share, implying the stock may be roughly 27% overvalued at current levels. [34]
- On the other hand, long‑term‑oriented commentary from outlets like The Motley Fool highlights Netflix’s strong profit profile, with free cash flow expected around $9 billion this year and revenue guidance of $45.1 billion, arguing that the company remains a powerful compounding machine despite short‑term volatility. [35]
Before the split, several major brokers had price targets in the $1,350–$1,525 range — equivalent to roughly $135–$152.50 post‑split — underscoring just how wide the valuation debate has become. [36]
Why it matters for Monday:
With NFLX now trading around $104, the stock sits below many bullish targets but well above some DCF‑based fair‑value estimates. Fresh analyst notes — especially around the WBD process or updated margin forecasts — could be catalysts in pre‑market or early regular‑session trading.
8. Options and volatility: What the market is pricing in
Options markets give a snapshot of how much movement traders expect from Netflix in the near term.
- As of November 21, 2025, the 30‑day implied volatility on NFLX options is around 34%, only modestly above its historical volatility and sitting in roughly the 60th percentile of the past year — elevated, but not panic‑level. [37]
- According to Options AI, the options market is pricing an expected move of about 7.7% (up or down) between now and the December 19 expiration. [38]
- A recent Barchart‑based analysis translated near‑term options pricing into an implied 4.8% move by the end of November, suggesting traders see a reasonable chance of NFLX trading somewhere in the low‑ to mid‑$110s — but with symmetrical upside and downside risk. [39]
- MarketBeat data show the stock closing Friday’s regular session at $104.31 and ticking slightly higher to $104.42 in extended trading. [40]
Why it matters for Monday:
For short‑term traders, these implied moves define a rough risk envelope for NFLX. A big surprise on the WBD front, new regulatory headlines, or abrupt shifts in tech sentiment could easily push moves beyond what the options market currently anticipates.
9. Key things to watch before the bell on Monday, November 24, 2025
Heading into tomorrow’s open, here are the main boxes to check if you follow Netflix stock:
- Weekend news on Warner Bros. Discovery
- Any leaks about WBD’s board preferring (or rejecting) Netflix’s bid, or commentary from regulators and politicians on media consolidation, could sway sentiment quickly. [41]
- Broader market tone for big‑cap tech
- Netflix trades with other large‑cap growth names, so moves in Treasury yields and the Nasdaq futures will likely color early NFLX action, even without company‑specific headlines.
- Post‑split technical levels
- After closing around $104, traders will watch the $100 region as psychological support, with recent resistance in the $110–$115 zone following the split and WBD‑related sell‑off. [42]
- Streaming and sports headlines
- Look for any new data points on NFL Christmas marketing, ad‑tier uptake, or further sports‑rights deals, especially as Netflix leans on live sports to boost engagement. [43]
- Ad market and macro signals
- Because Netflix’s growth story is now tightly tied to advertising, commentary from major ad‑holding companies or macro data that influence ad budgets could have an outsized impact.
What this all means if you’re watching Netflix stock
Going into Monday’s session, Netflix presents a complex mix of strengths and risks:
- Strengths: leading global scale in streaming, robust free cash flow, a rapidly growing ad business, and expanding live‑sports and events portfolio. [44]
- Risks: premium valuation, rising competition, lingering concerns about margins after the Brazil tax surprise, and uncertainty around a potential Warner Bros. Discovery transaction. [45]
Nothing in this article is financial advice. But if you’re considering trading or investing in NFLX around Monday’s open, it’s worth asking yourself:
- Am I betting on short‑term headlines (like WBD or sports ratings), or on multi‑year trends in streaming, ads, and live events?
- How comfortable am I with Netflix’s current valuation relative to its growth outlook and free‑cash‑flow trajectory?
- What’s my plan if the stock moves 5–10% against me in the next few weeks, given what options markets are pricing in?
Answering those questions — and keeping an eye on the catalysts above — will help you navigate whatever Netflix’s next episode in the market brings when trading resumes on November 24, 2025.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. ir.netflix.net, 4. ir.netflix.net, 5. finance.yahoo.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. static.poder360.com.br, 8. static.poder360.com.br, 9. apnews.com, 10. static.poder360.com.br, 11. static.poder360.com.br, 12. static.poder360.com.br, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.hollywoodreporter.com, 16. www.ft.com, 17. business.smdailypress.com, 18. equityanalysthub.medium.com, 19. static.poder360.com.br, 20. www.justanotherpm.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. apnews.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.netflix.com, 26. www.facebook.com, 27. apnews.com, 28. cincodias.elpais.com, 29. static.poder360.com.br, 30. www.ourmidland.com, 31. www.ourmidland.com, 32. www.thepoint.online, 33. www.investors.com, 34. simplywall.st, 35. www.fool.com, 36. www.quiverquant.com, 37. www.alphaquery.com, 38. tools.optionsai.com, 39. longbridge.com, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. finance.yahoo.com, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. static.poder360.com.br, 45. www.ft.com
