Updated: Saturday, December 13, 2025 (prices reflect the latest available market closes and published data through Friday, Dec. 12)
Natural gas markets just delivered a reminder of how fast sentiment can flip in winter. After a cold-driven surge to multi-year highs earlier this month, U.S. natural gas futures reversed sharply this week as weather models turned milder, production stayed near record levels, and storage—while tightening—remained comfortable for mid-December.
The result: a steep weekly selloff in U.S. prices, while Europe’s TTF benchmark hovered near 19–20 month lows on robust supply and stronger wind outlooks, and Asian LNG spot markers eased toward multi-month lows amid ample cargo availability and soft weather-driven demand.
Below is a detailed recap of this week’s biggest drivers, plus a week-ahead outlook (Dec. 15–19) focused on weather risk, LNG flows, storage reports, and the key catalysts that could jolt prices back in either direction.
Natural gas prices this week: the numbers traders are reacting to
United States: Henry Hub / NYMEX
- NYMEX January futures settled Friday at $4.113 per mmBtu, down 11.8 cents (–2.8%) on the day and down about 22% on the week, after touching the lowest intraday level since Oct. 31.
- The selloff followed Thursday’s sharp drop, when January futures fell nearly 8% to $4.231, the biggest daily percentage decline since March 2025.
- On the cash side, the EIA’s weekly market update showed Henry Hub spot sliding from $5.20 (Dec. 5) to $4.61 (Dec. 10)—a visible retreat as forecasts warmed after the early-December cold snap.
Europe: Dutch TTF
- The Dutch TTF front-month traded around €26.76–€27.33 per MWh during the week—levels not seen since April 2024—as milder forecasts and strong supply weighed on the market.
Asia: JKM LNG
- The Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) was indicated around $10.7–$10.8 per mmBtu, with Reuters noting Asian spot LNG at a ~20-month low amid ample supplies and mild weather.
Why U.S. natural gas fell hard this week: weather flipped, and fundamentals gave bears cover
The clearest driver was meteorology—and the market’s reflexive repricing of heating demand.
Reuters reported that forecasts for milder weather and lower demand next week helped push U.S. natural gas futures to a more-than-one-month low on Friday, even though storage withdrawals just printed far above normal.
At the same time, supply stayed heavy:
- LSEG estimated Lower-48 output around 109.7 Bcf/d so far in December, essentially matching record territory set in November.
- Strong output has helped keep inventories about 3% above normal for this time of year, muting the urgency that usually follows an early-winter cold shock.
Market psychology mattered, too. After prices spiked to a 35‑month high on Dec. 5, warmer revisions encouraged rapid profit-taking and short-term traders “jumping ship,” in the words of one analyst quoted by Reuters. TradingView+1
Barron’s also highlighted the “rollercoaster” dynamic: when the forecast warms, prices can fall quickly even if longer-term demand (LNG exports, winter heating, power burn) remains strong. Barron’s
The storage report that should have been bullish—but wasn’t
On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a 177 Bcf withdrawal for the week ended Dec. 5—roughly double the five-year average draw for the same week.
Key inventory context:
- Working gas in storage: 3,746 Bcf
- About 3% above the five-year average, but slightly below last year at this time.
Several analysts noted the unusual setup: a “big” withdrawal would normally spark a rally, but the market stayed focused on the mid-December warmth signal, effectively postponing bullish enthusiasm until the models show another meaningful cold risk. TradingView
LNG is still the swing factor—and it’s tightening the U.S. market even when prices fall
Even after this week’s price retreat, the U.S. is exporting huge volumes of gas via LNG, which continues to reshape domestic balances.
Reuters said average feedgas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to about 18.8 Bcf/d so far this month, near record levels.
That export pull is the backdrop for the broader 2025 story:
- U.S. LNG exports hit a record 10.9 million metric tonnes in November, with Europe taking about 70% of cargoes, according to Reuters.
- Operational headlines also mattered this month: Freeport LNG worked through a short disruption and appeared to return capacity as feedgas receipts recovered, per Reuters.
Margin squeeze: when U.S. gas rises but Europe/Asia fall
A key theme in recent days has been compression of the price spread between Henry Hub and Europe’s TTF.
Reuters reported that rising U.S. gas prices paired with softer Europe/Asia benchmarks narrowed the arbitrage that funds LNG exports, raising the possibility exports could eventually be curtailed if margins become too thin—though not necessarily in the near term.
This matters for week-ahead trading because it ties together three moving pieces:
- Henry Hub weather-driven demand
- LNG plant feedgas/uptime
- TTF and JKM pricing (global pull)
Europe: TTF stays low, but storage is materially tighter than last year
European natural gas prices remained subdued this week even as storage drew down—because supply has stayed strong(Norwegian pipeline flows + LNG sendout), and weather/wind forecasts reduced near-term heating and gas-for-power needs.
Reuters noted TTF touching a fresh 19‑month low midweek (around €26.76/MWh) with milder temperature runs and solid supply; LNG sendout was described as high, and Norwegian flows were reported above 340 mcm/day in one update.
The important difference vs. 2023–2024: storage
As of 12/12/2025 (6AM CEST), Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed:
- EU storage ~70.92% full (about 809.86 TWh stored)
A Reuters-cited market update published Saturday reported EU storage around 71.29%, versus 80.89% at the same time last year—an important structural tightening even if prices are currently calm.
A market setup that can stay calm—until it can’t
ING’s latest analysis argues Europe’s gas market is “more comfortable” near term due to a wave of LNG supply and relaxed storage rules, but lower storage makes Europe more vulnerable to cold spells or supply shocks, especially given speculative positioning in TTF (risk of a short-covering rally). ING Think
Asia: LNG benchmarks ease as supplies stay ample; China demand signals remain mixed
Asian LNG pricing softened alongside Europe, with Reuters noting spot LNG slipping to a ~20‑month low on ample supply and mild weather—conditions that tend to discourage urgent buying, but can also tempt price-sensitive importersback into the spot market.
On pricing, the JKM futures proxy showed levels around $10.70/mmBtu into Friday’s close.
On demand, Reuters’ recent reporting has emphasized:
- High spot LNG prices in 2025 restrained China’s spot buying and could push China behind Japan in annual LNG imports, though winter can still pull cargoes when cold snaps hit.
Forecasts: what the EIA is now projecting for prices, storage, and 2026 fundamentals
The EIA’s December Short-Term Energy Outlook (released Dec. 9) lifted its winter view after the early-December cold snap.
Key points from the EIA outlook:
- Henry Hub spot price forecast to average about $4.30/mmBtu this winter heating season (Nov–Mar), 22% higher than last winter.
- EIA expects December to run ~8% more heating degree days than the 10-year average, driving higher space-heating demand.
- Despite stronger winter pricing, EIA expects rising production to help moderate prices next year, with U.S. dry gas production forecast around 109 Bcf/d in 2026.
- EIA projects U.S. LNG exports averaging 14.9 Bcf/d in 2025 and 16.3 Bcf/d in 2026—a structural support for demand even in warmer weeks.
Week-ahead outlook (Dec. 15–19, 2025): the catalysts most likely to move natural gas prices
Here are the factors most likely to decide whether the market extends this week’s selloff or snaps back.
1) Weather model risk: warmth is priced in—so the asymmetry flips
By Friday, LSEG projected U.S. demand (including exports) falling sharply next week versus this week—one reason traders sold aggressively.
The market implication is straightforward:
- If forecasts stay mild, it’s difficult for bulls to regain control quickly.
- If the 6–10 day and 8–14 day outlooks shift colder (or HDDs rise), the market can rebound fast—because so much selling has already occurred and winter volatility remains high.
2) Next U.S. storage report: Thursday, Dec. 18
The next EIA storage report is scheduled for Dec. 18 under the regular release cadence.
Also worth noting for planning around year-end: EIA’s schedule shows holiday shifts later this month (e.g., Dec. 24 and Dec. 31 releases moved to Wednesday at noon).
Why it matters:
- Another oversized withdrawal could support prices only if weather risk is not collapsing at the same time.
- A smaller withdrawal (or any sign of demand softness) could reinforce the “storage is comfortable” narrative.
3) LNG feedgas and outage headlines
With feedgas near record levels, any unexpected LNG disruption (or restart) can quickly move balances—especially during winter. Recent attention has focused on facility uptime (including Freeport) and the steady expansion of export capability.
4) Europe’s wind and temperature pattern (and what it does to gas-for-power)
European gas prices have been highly sensitive to wind output forecasts this season. Reuters coverage this week pointed to wind-driven demand swings supporting prices at times even while the broader market stayed weak.
5) Storage tightness in Europe: a slow-burn bullish factor
Even if TTF is quiet now, EU inventories are notably below last year’s level for mid-December—meaning a late-December cold spell can matter more than traders expect today.
The bottom line for natural gas prices heading into next week
This week was dominated by a classic winter reversal: a cold-driven spike followed by a rapid selloff once warmer forecasts appeared, amplified by near-record U.S. production and still-adequate storage.
For the week ahead, the market is essentially trading one question:
Do forecasts stay mild long enough to keep demand sliding, or do weather models reintroduce cold risk that forces a rebound?
As always in December, the “correct” answer can change in a single model run—which is why natural gas volatility tends to stay elevated even when prices are falling.
Note: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice.
