Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is ending Tuesday, December 16, 2025 with a familiar mix of steady daytime trading — and a headline-driven jolt after the closing bell.
After finishing the regular session up modestly, Netflix stock moved higher in late trading as investors digested fresh reporting in the high-stakes Warner Bros. Discovery takeover battle and another sign that Netflix is expanding beyond traditional TV-and-film streaming into “daily habit” formats like video podcasts. StockAnalysis
Below is what happened to NFLX after the bell today — and the key catalysts, risks, and calendar items to keep in mind before U.S. markets open on Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025.
Netflix stock price after the bell: where NFLX closed and where it traded late
Netflix shares closed the regular session on Dec. 16 at about $94.56, up roughly 0.8% on the day, with volume around 32.5 million shares (post–10-for-1 split pricing). StockAnalysis
In after-hours trading, NFLX rose further: as of 5:30 p.m. ET, Netflix was indicated around $95.69, up about 1.2% versus the regular-session close, with an after-hours range roughly $94.33 to $95.69. Public
In broader market context, it was a mixed session for major U.S. indexes — the S&P 500 and Dow ended lower while the Nasdaq finished slightly higher — making Netflix’s late move stand out as more company-specific than macro-driven. The Motley Fool
Why Netflix stock moved after hours: Warner board report and a potential decision “as early as Wednesday”
The dominant late-day driver for Netflix stock is the ongoing takeover drama around Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) — a story that has become the single biggest “event risk” hanging over NFLX in December.
The headline: Warner board reportedly preparing to reject Paramount’s bid and back Netflix
Late today, Reuters reported that Warner Bros. Discovery is expected to advise shareholders to reject Paramount’s roughly $108.4 billion all-cash bid and instead support the existing Netflix transaction framework. Reuters added that a formal decision could be announced as early as Wednesday (Dec. 17). Reuters
Other outlets echoed the same direction: the Financial Times reported Warner is preparing to rebuff Paramount’s hostile offer, and the Wall Street Journal similarly said Warner is preparing to tell shareholders to reject Paramount’s offer and support the Netflix deal. Financial Times
Why this matters for NFLX investors
For Netflix shareholders, the WBD situation matters in two ways:
- Deal probability risk (and timeline risk): Any signal that Warner’s board is firming up behind Netflix can reduce “will Netflix lose this asset package?” uncertainty — but it can also increase the probability that Netflix must keep negotiating through regulatory and political scrutiny.
- Bid escalation risk: If Paramount decides to respond with a higher offer (or revised terms), markets could quickly re-price the likelihood of Netflix having to improve its economics — or, conversely, walking away. Today’s “as early as Wednesday” timeline is why the stock is reacting after hours: investors are bracing for near-term, not “sometime next quarter,” headlines. Reuters
A complicating factor: one Paramount backer stepped away
Axios reported today that Affinity Partners, the investment firm tied to Jared Kushner, backed out of Paramount’s Warner bid — a development that may reinforce Warner’s concerns about Paramount’s financing durability and could weaken Paramount’s negotiating posture right as Warner’s board nears a response deadline. Axios
The market’s core question: is this good for Netflix — or just the start of a longer, messier fight?
Investors can reasonably see the Warner pursuit in two very different lights:
The bullish view: content + IP + scale
Supporters argue that adding Warner’s studio assets and HBO Max-style streaming capabilities would deepen Netflix’s moat in premium content, licensing leverage, and global subscriber retention — the very “flywheel” that underpins Netflix’s valuation. While today’s Reuters report focuses on board preference, the market has treated the Warner package as strategically meaningful for Netflix’s long-term competitive position in streaming. Reuters
The cautious view: regulatory gravity and execution risk
Skeptics focus on the antitrust and regulatory exposure, plus the real possibility that deal conditions get tougher (or the process drags).
A Reuters legal analysis published recently noted that Netflix has argued it needs the Warner assets to compete more effectively with YouTube, but antitrust experts questioned whether regulators will view Netflix and YouTube as interchangeable competitors given differences in content, audiences, and business models. Reuters
And a Los Angeles Times column today emphasized that European scrutiny could become a major friction point, citing comments that the European Commission “could enter to assess” any eventual outcome — with mounting pressure in Europe for close review of any Netflix-Warner combination. Los Angeles Times
Bottom line: Even if today’s headlines improve the odds that Netflix remains Warner’s preferred partner, they do not eliminate the biggest investor fear — a drawn-out approval fight that introduces uncertainty into Netflix’s operating narrative and stock multiple.
Another major Netflix headline today: iHeartMedia video podcasts are coming (exclusive) to Netflix
Away from the Warner drama, Netflix also announced a notable content-format expansion that could matter to investors looking beyond M&A volatility.
What Netflix and iHeartMedia announced
Netflix and iHeartMedia announced an exclusive video podcast partnership that will bring more than 15 iHeartPodcasts to Netflix, including titles like “My Favorite Murder,” “The Breakfast Club,” “Behind the Bastards,” and others. The deal includes new episodes plus select library episodes, with launches planned in early 2026 in the U.S., followed by additional markets. Business Wire
Crucially, iHeart keeps audio distribution — meaning fans can still listen on iHeartRadio and other podcast platforms — but the video versions will stream only on Netflix. The Verge
Business Insider framed this as Netflix’s second major podcast partnership (following a prior Spotify-related move) and reported Netflix is aiming to build a broader slate of video podcast programming over time. Business Insider
Why Wall Street cares (even if it doesn’t move the stock like Warner headlines)
Video podcasts aren’t just “extra content.” They’re a strategic attempt to:
- Increase daily engagement (shorter, more frequent viewing)
- Compete more directly with YouTube for attention hours
- Create advertising inventory and sponsorship-style formats that can complement Netflix’s growing ad-supported business The Verge
This matters because it reinforces a key Netflix investment thesis: the company isn’t only defending “streaming TV”; it’s actively trying to expand into adjacent engagement categories where the TAM is enormous.
NFLX forecasts and analyst view: what consensus says right now
While daily headlines have dominated December trading, Wall Street’s consensus view on Netflix stock remains constructive.
Across the analysts tracked by StockAnalysis, Netflix carries a consensus “Buy” rating, with an average price target around $131 — implying roughly high-30% upside from today’s ~$95 area (again, on post-split pricing). StockAnalysis
That said, the spread between the low and high targets remains wide — a sign that the market is still debating how much M&A/regulatory uncertainty should discount Netflix’s otherwise strong fundamentals. StockAnalysis
What to know before the market opens tomorrow (Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025)
Here’s the practical “overnight checklist” for Netflix stock heading into the next session.
1) Watch for Warner board headlines early Wednesday
Reuters said a Warner board position could be announced as early as Wednesday. If anything breaks premarket — a board statement, a Paramount response, a financing update, or even credible leaks — it can move NFLX quickly before the open. Reuters
How it could hit NFLX:
- Clear Warner support for Netflix can be read as positive for deal momentum (reduced “lost the asset” risk).
- But it can also be read as negative if investors immediately shift focus to antitrust risk, integration complexity, and the possibility that Netflix must sweeten terms.
2) Regulatory chatter is not background noise — it is a price driver
Two regulatory angles are especially relevant right now:
- EU scrutiny: European officials and industry groups have signaled heightened attention, and commentary today suggested Europe could become a serious headwind for a Netflix-Warner outcome. Los Angeles Times
- U.S. antitrust framing: Reuters’ reporting on skepticism around Netflix’s “YouTube rivalry” argument underscores that regulators may not accept Netflix’s preferred market-definition narrative. Reuters
This is why NFLX can gap up on “deal support” and still sell off later on “regulatory risk” — both forces matter, and they can trade against each other intraday.
3) Don’t ignore the macro calendar on Wednesday
Even when Netflix is trading on company-specific news, macro volatility can amplify moves — particularly for mega-cap names.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics schedule shows the Employment Situation for November 2025 is set for Wednesday, Dec. 17 (a delayed release), which can shift rate expectations and risk appetite across the market. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The MarketWatch economic calendar also lists multiple Fed speakers on Wednesday morning, including Fed Governor Chris Waller and New York Fed President John Williams. MarketWatch
If yields move sharply on jobs data or Fed commentary, high-liquidity stocks like NFLX often feel it — even if the original catalyst was entertainment-sector news.
4) Keep the after-hours move in perspective
NFLX’s after-hours pop to the mid-$95 area is meaningful — but after-hours liquidity is thinner, and price action can reverse quickly at the open if:
- A headline changes (Paramount counters, Warner clarifies, etc.)
- Traders decide the late move “priced in” the news
- Broader market sentiment turns risk-off overnight
A simple way to frame it: today’s after-hours strength is a signal, not a final verdict.
The setup for Netflix stock heading into Dec. 17
Netflix ends Dec. 16 with shares firmer after hours, supported by:
- Reports suggesting Warner’s board is leaning toward Netflix in the takeover battle (with a possible decision Wednesday) Reuters
- A new iHeartMedia video podcast deal that reinforces Netflix’s push to grow engagement and compete with YouTube-style viewing behavior Business Wire
- A still-constructive Street consensus on valuation upside, despite headline volatility StockAnalysis
But the risks into tomorrow remain clear:
- Bid escalation (Paramount changes terms)
- Regulatory uncertainty (U.S. and EU scrutiny)
- Macro volatility from scheduled economic releases and Fed speakers Reuters
