Netflix Stock After Hours on December 10, 2025: Warner Bros. Bidding War, ‘Debtflix’ Fears and What to Watch Before the December 11 Open

Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) closed sharply lower on Wednesday, December 10, 2025, extending a bruising multi‑day slide as investors digested a potential $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming assets, an escalating bidding war with Paramount Skydance, and mounting regulatory and financing risks. ^[1]

After the bell, Netflix shares were trading in the low‑$90s in light after‑hours action, roughly around their regular-session close near $92.7, leaving the stock down more than 4% on the day and roughly 15% below where it traded at the start of December. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at what happened today and the key issues investors should understand before the U.S. stock market opens on Thursday, December 11, 2025.

1. Netflix Stock Today: A Six‑Day Losing Streak and Heavy Volume

Price action

Close (Dec 10, 2025): Around $92.7 per share, down about 4.1% on the day.
Intraday range: Opened near $96.7, hit an intraday low just above $92, then finished near the lows as sellers stepped in late. ^[3]
Volume: Over 70 million shares changed hands, well above recent averages, signaling elevated institutional activity. ^[4]

A Dow Jones “Data Talk” note highlighted that Netflix has now fallen for six consecutive sessions, putting it on track for its longest losing streak since January and its lowest closing levels since mid‑April 2025. ^[5]

A separate report from Fortune noted that as of yesterday, Netflix had dropped about 28% since the end of June, making it one of the worst performers in the Nasdaq 100 in the second half of 2025. ^[6]

In other words: the market is sending a clear message that it is not comfortable (yet) with Netflix’s blockbuster Warner Bros. plan.

2. The $72 Billion Warner Bros. Megadeal, in Plain English

On December 5, Netflix announced a landmark agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio and streaming business—including HBO, HBO Max and DC Studios—for an equity value of $72.0 billion and a total enterprise value of $82.7 billion. ^[7]

Key deal terms (based on Netflix’s press release and subsequent coverage):

Structure: Warner Bros. Discovery will first spin off its cable networks (such as CNN and Discovery) into a separate entity called Discovery Global. Netflix is buying the studio and streaming operations, not the legacy cable networks. ^[8]
Per‑share consideration: Warner Bros. shareholders are set to receive roughly $27.75 per share, comprising about $23–$23.25 in cash and $4.50 in Netflix stock, according to multiple deal summaries. ^[9]
Franchises gained: Netflix would gain control of a deep library, including Harry Potter, DC Comics, and HBO hits like Game of Thrones and The Sopranos, creating one of the most powerful IP portfolios in entertainment. ^[10]
Timeline: Closing is expected within 12–18 months, subject to intense antitrust and regulatory review. ^[11]

Analysts estimate the combined streaming giant would serve over 400 million subscribers globally (roughly 300 million from Netflix plus ~128 million from HBO Max and related services), representing over 40% of global subscription video streaming by some counts. ^[12]

That kind of scale is exactly why Netflix wants the deal—and exactly why regulators, politicians, and some investors are nervous.

3. Paramount’s Hostile Bid: A Full‑Blown Bidding War

If the Warner Bros. deal weren’t complicated enough, Netflix is now in a bidding war.

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) has launched a hostile all‑cash bid of $30 per share for Warner Bros. Discovery, going directly to shareholders and challenging Netflix’s board-supported offer. ^[13]
Reports from the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal indicate Paramount CEO David Ellison is lobbying Warner investors in New York, arguing that Paramount’s $108 billion-plus hostile offer is superior to Netflix’s largely cash‑and‑stock proposal. ^[14]
Warner’s board still prefers Netflix’s bid, and internally values the package at $31–$32 per share when accounting for retained interests in non-streaming assets—higher than the headline $27.75 figure. ^[15]

Today, a new twist emerged: Paramount circulated a letter to Warner Bros. investors claiming that Netflix’s bid overstates value and cannot match Paramount’s cash offer, estimating the true value of Netflix’s package at about $28.75 per share. ^[16]

Prediction markets now imply roughly even odds that either Netflix or Paramount will ultimately win Warner, with some forecasts suggesting the bidding war could drag into 2026. ^[17]

For Netflix shareholders, the implication is straightforward:

Either Netflix pays more, or it walks away—and both options carry risk.

4. ‘Debtflix’ Returns: How Netflix Plans to Pay for Warner Bros.

The financing angle is one of the biggest reasons Netflix stock came under pressure today.

Massive new borrowing

A Bloomberg report, echoed on multiple platforms, says Netflix is preparing to borrow tens of billions of dollars to fund the largely cash deal, reviving its old nickname “Debtflix.” ^[18]

Netflix is expected to contribute around $10.3 billion of its own cash and raise approximately $59 billion in new debt financing, including one of the largest bridge loans ever arranged on Wall Street. ^[19]
A recent Fortune piece noted that this $59 billion loan would rank among the biggest corporate loan packages in history. ^[20]

Balance sheet still investment-grade—so far

Commentary from Bloomberg and others stresses that Netflix’s balance sheet is stronger than in its pre‑pandemic “Debtflix” days: the company now generates hefty free cash flow and has kept leverage under control, which should help it maintain investment‑grade credit ratings even after the deal. ^[21]

Still, piling on this much debt at once:

Magnifies downside if the deal is blocked after significant spending on fees and integration planning.
Could limit flexibility for future buybacks or content splurges.
Leaves Netflix more exposed to rising credit spreads if markets sour.

As one analyst put it: Netflix is betting its fortress cash flow can support a skyscraper’s worth of debt.

5. Regulatory and Political Risks: Trump, Lawsuits and Antitrust Fears

Regulation may be the single biggest swing factor for Netflix shareholders.

Trump’s antitrust warning

U.S. President Donald Trump has already flagged the Netflix–Warner combination as a potential “antitrust problem”, saying Netflix already has “a very big market share” and that acquiring Warner would push that share even higher. He also said he plans to be “personally involved” in the review process. ^[22]

According to Bloomberg reporting relayed by Moneycontrol:

Prediction markets slashed the probability of the deal closing by end‑2026 from around 60% to about 23% after Trump’s comments. ^[23]
Lawmakers from both parties have expressed concerns and suggested the merger could give Netflix near‑30% market share in streaming, a level that will draw intense scrutiny. ^[24]

Lawsuits and global scrutiny

Separate reporting highlights that Netflix’s $72 billion bid faces antitrust lawsuits alleging the company could wield “unequalled market power” over streaming content if it absorbs Warner. ^[25]

Regulatory risk checklist:

U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ): Expected to conduct an in‑depth review of Netflix’s dominance in streaming and Warner’s importance as a content supplier. ^[26]
Congress: Members from both parties already voicing skepticism, increasing the odds of high‑profile hearings. ^[27]
Europe and UK: EU and UK regulators are also signalling an intensive review, particularly around pricing power and market concentration. ^[28]

Complicating matters further, Netflix has agreed to a reverse breakup fee of $5.8 billion should the deal be blocked or fall apart—one of the largest such penalties ever. ^[29]

That means even a failed deal could be very expensive for shareholders.

6. What Wall Street Is Saying: Downgrades, Bull Cases and 2026 Targets

Wall Street is sharply divided on whether Netflix’s Warner move is a stroke of genius or an unnecessary gamble.

Pivotal Research: Downgrade to Hold

On December 8, Pivotal Research downgraded Netflix from Buy to Hold, slashing its price target from $160 to $105 (post‑split) on Warner deal concerns. ^[30]

Key points from Pivotal:

The $83 billion enterprise value and $5.8 billion breakup fee introduce meaningful execution and valuation risk. ^[31]
Regulatory approval could take 18–24 months, with no guarantee of success. ^[32]
A prolonged bidding war with Paramount might force Netflix to raise its offer, further eroding returns. ^[33]
Management is increasingly focused on competition from short‑form platforms like TikTok, YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels, which are eating into younger viewers’ time. ^[34]

Barchart: Deal “bad news” but long‑term upside still possible

A detailed piece on Barchart framed the Warner deal as “bad news” for Netflix stock in the near term, mainly because:

The company is putting roughly $83 billion of additional value at risk in a world where generative AI may disrupt traditional content production over the next five years. ^[35]
The acquisition adds legacy studio complexity to what was previously a much more asset-light, tech‑centric business model. ^[36]

Even so, the same article notes:

Netflix plans to spend about $30 billion annually on content after the merger, making it the largest entertainment spender globally. ^[37]
Analysts tracked by Barchart project revenue rising from around $39 billion in 2024 to $67.2 billion in 2029, with EPS growing from $1.98 to $5.10 over that period. ^[38]
Out of 47 analysts covering Netflix, 27 rate it “Strong Buy,” 3 “Moderate Buy,” 15 “Hold,” and 2 “Strong Sell,” with an average price target around $132–133, significantly above today’s sub‑$100 price. ^[39]

Broader consensus and 2026 forecasts

A recent 2026 forecast compiled by Bitget’s research team, summarizing multiple data providers, shows:

Average 12‑month price targets clustered in the $134–140 range from platforms like MarketBeat, Investing.com, StockAnalysis, and major brokerages. ^[40]
Most classify the stock as a “Moderate Buy” or “Outperform”. ^[41]

However, the same report highlights important caveats:

Optimistic upside targets reach $150–160, but bearish estimates dip into the $70–95 zone, emphasising how sensitive the stock is to growth and regulatory outcomes.
Despite strong growth and free cash flow, Netflix still trades on premium valuation multiples—around 35x forward earnings—leaving it vulnerable to negative surprises. ^[42]

In short, analysts are bullish on the business, cautious on the deal.

7. Don’t Forget the Core Business: Growth, Ads and the 2025 Stock Split

With headlines dominated by Warner Bros., it’s easy to forget that Netflix’s underlying business has been performing well.

From recent quarterly reviews and the December 1 stock‑forecast report: ^[43]

Revenue growth:
- Q2 2025: $11.08 billion, up ~16% year‑over‑year.
- Q3 2025: $11.51 billion, up 17% YoY.
Margins & cash flow:
- Q3 operating margin around 28%, temporarily depressed by a one‑time Brazilian tax charge.
- Full‑year 2025 revenue guidance: $44.8–$45.2 billion, +15–16% YoY.
- Free cash flow guidance lifted to roughly $9 billion for 2025.

Ad‑supported tier and pricing power

Netflix’s ad‑supported plan is estimated to reach about 190 million monthly active viewers, with ad-tier users generating far higher blended ARPU than standard ad‑free subscribers, thanks to the mix of subscriptions and advertising. ^[44]
The company has also introduced price hikes for ad‑free tiers in key markets, signalling confidence in its pricing power. ^[45]

The 10‑for‑1 stock split

On October 30, 2025, Netflix announced a 10‑for‑1 forward stock split, effective mid‑November:

Shareholders of record as of November 10 received nine additional shares for each share held, with trading on a split‑adjusted basis starting November 17, 2025. ^[46]
The split reduced the stock price from around $1,100 pre‑split to roughly $110 post‑split, improving accessibility for retail investors and employees. ^[47]

Today’s ~$93 close is therefore post‑split—equivalent to about $930 on a pre‑split basis, underscoring how significant the recent pullback has been relative to this year’s highs.

8. Macro Backdrop: Fed Cut vs. Netflix‑Specific Pain

Today’s weakness in Netflix didn’t occur in a vacuum.

U.S. markets actually looked relatively constructive:

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the third time in 2025 and signalled one more cut likely in 2026, a generally supportive backdrop for growth and tech stocks. ^[48]
Major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow traded higher, while the Nasdaq hovered near record territory. ^[49]

Yet Netflix fell hard, while Warner Bros. Discovery shares rose about 4–4.5%, reflecting optimism about a higher buyout price regardless of whether Netflix or Paramount wins. ^[50]

That divergence makes it clear: today’s move in NFLX was company‑specific, driven by deal risk, not macro fears.

9. Key Things to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 11, 2025

Heading into Thursday’s pre‑market session, here are the main issues traders and long‑term investors will be watching:

1. Any change in the bidding war narrative

Does Paramount sweeten its $30 per‑share cash offer for Warner Bros.?
Does Netflix respond with an improved bid, or signal that it is willing to stick to its current terms?
Fresh headlines from the FT, WSJ or AP about investor sentiment, board deliberations, or prediction‑market odds could move all three stocks (NFLX, WBD, PSKY) before the opening bell. ^[51]

2. Regulatory signals and political commentary

Any additional remarks from President Trump, the DOJ, or key lawmakers—especially around market share thresholds or consumer harm—will likely affect perceptions of deal‑approval probability. ^[52]
Watch for commentary from European or UK competition authorities, or hints about CFIUS or cross‑border review if foreign capital is involved in rival bids. ^[53]

3. Bond‑market reaction to “Debtflix”

With talk of a $59 billion financing package and tens of billions in new bonds, investors will be scrutinizing:
- Netflix bond spreads and yields
- Any rating‑agency commentary on leverage and outlook ^[54]
Sharp widening in Netflix’s credit spreads would signal that fixed‑income investors are less confident about the company’s ability to digest Warner.

4. New analyst notes, rating changes and target cuts

After Pivotal’s downgrade, investors will watch for other major brokerages to either:
- Reiterate bullish calls (like Oppenheimer’s $145 target and Evercore’s Outperform), or
- Follow Pivotal in trimming targets or recommending caution. ^[55]
Pre‑market commentary could influence how aggressively traders buy or sell the dip.

5. Options and volatility positioning

Given the six‑day losing streak and high daily swings, implied volatility in NFLX options is likely elevated. ^[56]
Any large, concentrated options trades ahead of the open (for example, big call or put spreads) may hint at institutional expectations for near‑term direction.

6. Core business datapoints and streaming sentiment

While M&A headlines dominate, keep an eye on:

New data or commentary on ad‑tier growth, churn, and time‑spent metrics versus rivals like YouTube, Disney+, Amazon Prime Video and TikTok. ^[57]
Broader risk‑on / risk‑off tone in high‑growth tech and media names after the Fed decision.

10. Bottom Line for Netflix Shareholders and Traders

As of the close on December 10, 2025, Netflix sits at the intersection of:

A structurally strong, cash‑generating streaming business with powerful global scale, growing advertising revenues and a successful stock split that broadened investor access. ^[58]
An enormous, high‑stakes acquisition that could cement its dominance—or saddle it with heavy debt, regulatory headaches and integration risk. ^[59]
A skittish market that has punished the stock with a multi‑week sell‑off, even as analysts’ long‑term price targets remain well above current levels. ^[60]

Heading into tomorrow’s open, the stock is in a classic “show me” phase:

Bulls will look for signs that Netflix can close the deal on reasonable terms, maintain investment‑grade credit, and continue compound growth in subscribers, ads and cash flow.
Bears will focus on the possibility of overpaying, regulatory blockage, or a costly breakup fee—along with mounting competition from short‑form platforms and other streamers.

For now, the only certainty is volatility. Until investors have more clarity on the Warner Bros. outcome, Netflix’s stock is likely to remain highly sensitive to every new headline, from courtrooms and regulators to Hollywood and the White House.

References