NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 17:53 ET
- Analyst targets heading into 2026 cluster in the low $130s, implying roughly mid-30% to low-40% upside from Netflix’s latest close.
- Morgan Stanley cut its target to $120 while keeping a Buy; Bank of America kept a $149 target, according to a recent analyst roundup.
- The 2026 outlook is complicated by Netflix’s planned purchase of Warner Bros Discovery’s studio and streaming assets, a deal expected to face regulatory scrutiny.
Analyst price targets for Netflix heading into 2026 cluster around the low $130s, implying roughly 34% to 41% upside from the latest close, based on figures compiled by TipRanks and 24/7 Wall St. Morgan Stanley’s Benjamin Swinburne kept a Buy rating while cutting his target to $120, while Bank of America’s Jessica Reif Ehrlich maintained a Buy and a $149 target, TipRanks said. TipRanks
Netflix shares were last at $93.76. The next near-term test for the 2026 thesis is the company’s quarterly report, which MarketBeat lists as expected on Jan. 20, when investors are likely to look for updates on advertising and the company’s deal timetable. MarketBeat
The deal backdrop is a major reason the forecast matters now. Netflix agreed on Dec. 5 to buy Warner Bros Discovery’s TV and film studios and streaming division for $72 billion, a transaction Reuters reported is expected to close after Warner completes a spinoff in the third quarter of 2026. “In light of the current regulatory environment, this will raise eyebrows and concerns,” PP Foresight analyst Paolo Pescatore said. Reuters
A “price target” is an analyst’s estimate of where a stock could trade over the next 12 months. Those targets are not guarantees, and they can shift quickly when companies change strategy or when investors reassess risk.
The bullish case for 2026 rests on Netflix’s ability to grow revenue beyond its core subscription base, with analysts increasingly focused on the company’s ad-supported tier. Supporters argue that a larger advertising business would give Netflix another lever to grow without relying solely on subscription price increases.
Some of the same analysts also see a strategic logic in adding Warner’s library and franchises, if Netflix can bring them in at an acceptable cost and keep the combined business moving without disrupting its production engine.
Skeptics focus on financing and execution, and on the likelihood of a long approval process. Swinburne warned that a Warner transaction would face regulatory hurdles and could be dilutive to free cash flow per share, according to TipRanks. Free cash flow is cash left after operating costs and capital spending; “dilutive” means it could reduce the amount generated per share, at least initially.
Regulators will also weigh the competitive implications. Warner’s assets include HBO Max, and any combination with Netflix would draw scrutiny over market power in streaming and in premium television, analysts and industry executives have warned.
That puts Netflix’s 2026 outlook in a narrow channel: strong enough operating performance to sustain premium valuation metrics, while carrying the uncertainty of a marquee deal that could be slowed, reshaped, or blocked.
Investors will be listening for management’s tone on advertising momentum, content spending discipline, and how quickly the company believes it can clear antitrust review. Any new detail on breakup fees, structure changes, or timing could move the stock as much as an earnings beat.
The range of analyst targets also underlines how divided the market remains. 24/7 Wall St cited a Street target range from $77 to $152.50, suggesting forecasts still span a wide set of outcomes for 2026. 24/7 Wall St.
For now, the dominant question for Netflix stock in 2026 is less about streaming demand and more about how investors price deal risk against the potential for a broader profit engine built on ads, a deeper content pipeline, and scale.
