Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) ended Thursday’s regular session at $94.00, down 0.83%, and was little changed in after-hours trading—ticking up to about $94.04 as of 4:37 p.m. ET. [1]
The lack of a dramatic after-hours move doesn’t mean investors are relaxed. Netflix is sitting in the middle of one of the biggest corporate stories in media: its proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. assets, the ongoing tug-of-war surrounding that transaction, and the regulatory and political scrutiny that comes with it. Meanwhile, Netflix’s push into live programming and sports-adjacent events continues to accelerate—another narrative that can shape sentiment heading into the next session. [2]
Below is what matters most tonight (Dec. 18) and what to watch before the market opens Friday (Dec. 19, 2025).
Netflix stock: the after-hours setup (as of the close and extended session)
Where NFLX finished Thursday
- Regular-session close: $94.00 (-0.83%) [3]
- After-hours: about $94.04 at ~4:37 p.m. ET [4]
- Thursday range:$93.60 to $95.81 [5]
Market context: U.S. stocks broadly gained Thursday after a softer-than-expected inflation update, with the Nasdaq up and the S&P 500 snapping a short losing streak. Netflix didn’t follow the bullish tape—another sign that deal-driven uncertainty is dominating the stock’s near-term trading. [6]
Why Netflix stock slipped today even as the broader market rose
Thursday’s macro backdrop was constructive: Reuters reported U.S. CPI inflation came in below expectations, lifting risk sentiment. [7] Yet NFLX still closed lower, and the day’s trading looked less like “macro Netflix” and more like “event-driven Netflix.”
Right now, that event is the Warner Bros. transaction—and the dominoes around it.
The Warner Bros. deal remains the key swing factor for NFLX
1) The structure and timeline matter more than the headlines
Netflix’s announced deal framework is unusually complex (and that complexity is part of why markets are sensitive to every incremental development). Netflix has said it will acquire Warner Bros. following the separation of WBD’s Global Networks division into a new public company, with the transaction valued at $27.75 per WBD share and an enterprise value around $82.7 billion (equity value $72.0 billion). Netflix has also said the close is expected after the separation, now expected to be completed in Q3 2026. [8]
In a related SEC communication, Netflix stated it plans to close in 12–18 months after customary regulatory approvals and that it has submitted its HSR filing and is engaging with competition authorities, including the DOJ and EU Commission. [9]
Why this matters for NFLX holders: The longer the regulatory and structural timeline, the more the stock can trade as a referendum on (a) probability of closing, (b) ultimate remedies/conditions, and (c) whether the deal improves or dilutes Netflix’s long-term economics.
2) Today’s headline: potential buyers circling Warner’s cable networks (CNN and more)
One of the most market-relevant developments Thursday came via Reuters: hedge fund Standard General is reportedly in discussions to invest in or acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s television networks, including CNN, per a Financial Times report cited by Reuters. [10]
This intersects directly with the Netflix-WBD structure because WBD’s cable networks are central to the separation/spin plan. Any credible interest in those assets can:
- change expectations for the value (and debt capacity) of the “networks” entity,
- affect how cleanly the separation happens,
- and potentially influence regulatory optics depending on the final configuration.
3) The hostile-bid shadow still hangs over the story
Warner has publicly urged shareholders to reject Paramount’s offer in favor of Netflix’s—one more reason the market treats this as an evolving contest, not a “done deal.” [11]
In a Reuters Breakingviews analysis published today, the situation is described as a high-stakes bidding drama, noting that financing credibility and shifting backers are key variables and outlining hypothetical “split-the-assets” compromises that could emerge if the fight drags on. [12]
Translation for NFLX traders: even if Netflix itself isn’t issuing new statements every day, the probability-weighted outcomes keep moving, and the stock can react to news that is technically “about Warner” or “about Paramount” rather than Netflix.
Other Netflix news today that investors are weighing
Not everything in the Netflix narrative is M&A. Two “core business” items hit the wires Thursday that reinforce how Netflix is trying to expand beyond traditional on-demand streaming.
Netflix adds another live-events personality as it builds a bigger “live” slate
The Associated Press reported today that Elle Duncan is leaving ESPN to join Netflix under a multi-year deal, where she will host live sports and cultural events. AP noted her first Netflix role will include hosting “Skyscraper Live” early next year. [13]
The Verge also framed the move as another signal that Netflix is serious about live programming ambitions. [14]
Why this matters to the stock: Live programming can support engagement, advertising, and pricing power—especially if Netflix continues blending entertainment, sports windows, and event-style shows into a predictable calendar.
Competitive attention: YouTube remains a pressure point in the streaming attention economy
A Digiday analysis published today focused on why YouTube is a real competitive threat in watch time and viewing behaviors—an angle that matters more as Netflix leans into advertising and “time spent” engagement metrics. [15]
Wall Street forecasts: where analysts’ expectations sit tonight
Investors heading into Friday are dealing with an unusually wide spread of narratives, so it’s not surprising that analyst views look dispersed.
- MarketBeat’s aggregated analyst view shows a consensus price target around $129.68, with targets ranging widely (as displayed by the service). [16]
- Zacks also displays a broad target range and a bullish-leaning average relative to the current price level. [17]
- Recent deal-related downgrades and target cuts have been reported in analyst coverage (for example, Pivotal Research’s downgrade and target reduction following Warner-deal concerns, as summarized by Investing.com). [18]
How to read this as a pre-market checklist: consensus targets may look attractive on paper versus the current price, but the near-term tape is still being driven by (1) deal probability, (2) regulatory path, and (3) whether investors believe Netflix is paying the “right price” for Warner assets given execution risk.
Options and volatility: what the market is pricing into Friday
For traders watching the open, one simple way to gauge expected volatility is the options market’s implied move.
OptionCharts data shows an expected move of about ±$2.34 (±2.49%) into the Dec. 19, 2025 expiration, implying a rough range around $91.62 to $96.30. [19]
That implied range lines up with Thursday’s intraday levels: the stock traded between $93.60 and $95.81. [20]
What to know before the market opens tomorrow (Friday, Dec. 19, 2025)
Here’s a practical, investor-focused checklist for the next ~12 hours.
1) It’s a major options/futures expiration day
Friday, Dec. 19 is listed as a “Triple Witch” date on NYSE’s 2025 trading calendar, which can amplify volatility and volume—especially late in the session, but sometimes at the open as positioning resets. [21]
What to watch at the open: if NFLX gaps up or down on headlines, expiration-related flows can exaggerate the move (in either direction).
2) Scheduled U.S. data that can move sentiment mid-morning
From the New York Fed’s economic indicators calendar for Dec. 19 (ET):
- Michigan Consumer Survey (Final) at 10:00 a.m.
- NAR Existing Home Sales at 10:00 a.m.
- NY Fed Staff Nowcast at 11:45 a.m. [22]
Netflix isn’t a housing stock, but consumer confidence and rate-sensitive narratives can still swing broad risk sentiment—and Friday is also an expiration day when broad sentiment can matter.
3) Deal headlines can hit at any hour—watch WBD/Paramount “side-news”
Because the central Netflix narrative is M&A-driven, headlines that do not mention Netflix directly can still move NFLX:
- any update on the networks separation or potential buyers of those assets (today’s Standard General headline is a template), [23]
- any update on competing bids, financing, or shareholder outreach, [24]
- any update on the regulatory path or filings.
4) Watch the “levels” traders will likely reference Friday
Based on Thursday’s tape:
A clean break above/below those areas—especially with expiration-day volume—can attract momentum trading.
5) Don’t forget the calendar ahead: Netflix earnings date is set
Netflix has announced it will post Q4 2025 results and outlook on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026 (with results posted around 1:01 p.m. PT), and Nasdaq lists the earnings report as expected that day after the market close. [27]
Even though that’s weeks away, in a market dominated by deal headlines, earnings become the next “fundamental anchor” date.
One quick housekeeping note that still trips up some investors: Netflix’s split
Netflix’s share price level today reflects its 10-for-1 forward stock split, with split-adjusted trading having begun Nov. 17, 2025. If you’re comparing older analyst notes, charts, or historical price levels, make sure you’re looking at split-adjusted figures. [28]
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. ir.netflix.net, 3. www.investing.com, 4. finance.yahoo.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. ir.netflix.net, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. apnews.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. apnews.com, 14. www.theverge.com, 15. digiday.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. www.zacks.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. optioncharts.io, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.nyse.com, 22. www.newyorkfed.org, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. ir.netflix.net, 28. ir.netflix.net
