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Netflix stock (NASDAQ: NFLX) is trading around $108 after a 10‑for‑1 split, strong Q3 2025 results and surging ad revenue. Here’s the latest price action, earnings, analyst ratings and long‑term forecasts as of December 1, 2025.
Netflix stock today: price, range and recent performance
As of early trading on December 1, 2025, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is changing hands at roughly $108 per share, after a recent 10‑for‑1 stock split. Real‑time data shows NFLX around $107.9, with an intraday range near $106–108 and a 52‑week band of about $82 to $134 (all figures split‑adjusted).
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The stock hit an all‑time (split‑adjusted) high around $134 in late June 2025, meaning shares are currently trading roughly 20% below their peak.
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Despite that pullback, Netflix has still logged a mid‑20s percent total return year‑to‑date in 2025, according to total‑return data, handily beating many media peers.
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In other words: Netflix is no longer at euphoric highs, but it’s far from cheap in absolute dollar terms—just cheaper than it was this summer.
The fundamental backdrop: Q3 2025 earnings were strong, with one big tax headache
Netflix’s Q3 2025 earnings (reported October 21) are the main foundation for today’s debate over the stock.
Key numbers from Q3 2025:
Revenue: $11.51 billion, up 17% year‑on‑year, in line with expectations.
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Operating income: About $3.25 billion, up 12%.
Operating margin: ~28%, below the company’s prior ~31.5% guidance.
Net income: Around $2.55 billion, up 8%.
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Diluted EPS: $5.87 (pre‑split), missing consensus of roughly $6.9 due to a one‑off tax charge.
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Free cash flow (FCF): Roughly $2.6–2.7 billion in the quarter.
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The main blemish: a $619 million expense related to a Brazilian tax dispute. This hit Q3 margins and EPS, and also knocked the stock mid‑teens percent below its 52‑week high in the days following the report.
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Management and several analysts have emphasized that this Brazilian tax issue is non‑recurring and non‑income‑tax in nature, and that absent this charge, Netflix would have exceeded its margin guidance. The company does not expect the dispute to materially affect long‑term profitability, though it remains a legal and regulatory risk to watch.
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Looking ahead, Netflix has raised its 2025 outlook:
2025 revenue guidance: about $44.8–$45.2 billion, implying 15–16% growth (or slightly higher on an FX‑neutral basis).
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2025 operating margin target: around 29–30%.
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2025 free cash flow guidance: ~$9 billion, up from earlier $8–8.5 billion estimates.
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In short: core operations look very healthy, margins are robust even after a large tax charge, and Netflix is throwing off substantial cash.
The 10‑for‑1 stock split: mechanics, timing and Dow‑Jones buzz
After years of trading in the four‑figure range, Netflix launched a 10‑for‑1 forward stock split:
Announcement: October 30, 2025
Shareholder record date: November 10, 2025
Distribution date: November 14, 2025
First day of post‑split trading: November 17, 2025
Bitget
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The Motley Fool
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The split simply multiplied the number of shares by 10 and divided the share price by 10, leaving market cap and fundamentals unchanged. Management cited:
Making shares more affordable for employees and retail investors, and
Improving liquidity and perceived accessibility.
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However, commentators quickly seized on another angle: possible eligibility for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Because the Dow is price‑weighted, a four‑figure NFLX share price previously made inclusion awkward. At today’s ~$108, that technical barrier is gone.
MarketBeat
An in‑depth MarketBeat piece published December 1 argues that:
Netflix now has a market cap around $450+ billion, blue‑chip‑style free‑cash‑flow, and consistent profitability.
A Dow slot would likely trigger automatic buying from index funds and further cement NFLX as a long‑term “core” holding for institutional portfolios.
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There is no guarantee that the Dow committee will add Netflix, but the split has undeniably increased the odds, and that possibility is now part of the bull case.
From subscribers to monetization: how big is Netflix now?
By mid‑2025, Netflix reported roughly 301–302 million global subscribers, and in January 2025 it said it had officially crossed the 300 million paid member mark.
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24/7 Wall St.
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At the same time, the company has stopped reporting quarterly subscriber figures, pivoting instead to:
Revenue growth
Operating margin and free cash flow
Engagement and viewing‑share metrics
This shift underlines Netflix’s intent to be judged as a mature cash‑generating media platform, not just a hyper‑growth subscriber story.
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A few structural points from recent research and company communications:
In the U.S., Netflix holds roughly 21% streaming market share, slightly behind Amazon Prime Video, but remains number one globally, with strong leads in major markets like Canada, the U.K. and Japan.
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Five‑year total shareholder return is over +100%, and earlier investors since the 2002 IPO have enjoyed gains of nearly 88,000% (split‑adjusted), according to long‑term analyses.
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Free‑cash‑flow margin has improved dramatically over the last several years, helped by slowing content spend growth and improved monetization.
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From a high level, Netflix is behaving less like a speculative growth stock and more like a high‑margin, high‑FCF media and tech hybrid.
Ads, ad‑supported tier and password crackdown: the new growth engine
The most important growth story for Netflix in 2025 is advertising.
Ad‑supported tier metrics
Different datasets paint a consistent picture of rapid ad‑tier expansion:
As of 2025, Netflix’s ad‑supported plan reaches around 94 million global monthly active users, and in countries where it’s offered, about 40% of new sign‑ups choose this ad‑tier.
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A September 2025 TV churn survey found that 42% of Netflix subscribers now pick the Standard with Ads plan, up from 14% in 2023, showing a big shift in customer mix.
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By mid‑2025, the ad‑supported tier had attracted over 15 million new global subscribers, far ahead of early internal expectations.
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As of November 2025, ad‑supported plans were reaching about 190 million global monthly active viewers, with roughly 40% of incremental sign‑ups opting for the cheaper ad option.
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Third‑party estimates cited by Bitget suggest Netflix may generate significantly higher monthly revenue per ad‑tier user than per ad‑free user, once subscription and advertising streams are combined.
Bitget
Ad revenue and 2025 guidance
On the revenue side:
Netflix has repeatedly said it expects ad revenue to roughly double in 2025, and Q3 was its strongest advertising quarter ever.
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Independent estimates put Netflix’s 2025 ad business on track to exceed $2 billion in annual revenue.
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Combined with price hikes on ad‑free tiers earlier in 2025, the ad business is now central to Netflix’s 15–17% expected annual revenue growth and near‑30% margin profile.
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Password‑sharing crackdown
Netflix’s earlier crackdown on password sharing is still quietly paying off. By enforcing paid sharing and nudging “freeloaders” into paid accounts—often on the lower‑priced ad tier—the company has:
Converted non‑paying viewers into revenue‑generating members
Supported both subscriber and ARPU growth across regions
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Put together, ads + pricing + password enforcement have turned Netflix into one of the most profitable consumer internet platforms, with free cash flow expected to be around $9 billion in 2025 alone.
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Content, live events and gaming: why engagement still matters
The financial story only works if people keep watching.
Blockbusters and the December 2025 slate
In Q3 and Q4 2025, Netflix has leaned heavily on high‑impact global titles:
Animated smash “KPop Demon Hunters” and major events like the Canelo vs. Crawford fight helped drive record engagement and retention in Q3.
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The December 2025 lineup is packed with franchise‑level releases:
The final episodes of “Stranger Things” Season 5
A new Kurt Sutter Western (Dec. 4)
“City of Shadows” (Dec. 12)
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery” (Dec. 12)
Fresh Adam Sandler content (Dec. 1)
A live Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua boxing event (Dec. 19)
Additional NFL games and holiday specials
MarketWatch
This sort of slate is exactly the kind of programming that supports both subscription growth and advertising pricing power going into 2026.
Live events and sports
Netflix is increasingly experimenting with live content:
High‑profile fights such as Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson earlier in 2025 reportedly drew over 100 million viewers, making it one of the most‑streamed sporting events ever and proving appetite for premium live events on the platform.
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Netflix has also secured future rights to broadcast the World Baseball Classic in Japan starting 2026, expanding its sports footprint in key international markets.
Wikipedia
These moves hint at a future where Netflix’s revenue mix includes not just series and films, but sports, live events and related merchandise.
Games and IP monetization
Analysts increasingly highlight Netflix’s growing games portfolio—many titles tied directly to Netflix IP—as a way to:
Deepen engagement with franchises like Squid Game and other hits
Create new monetization opportunities over the longer term
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For now, games are more about ecosystem value than direct revenue, but they strengthen the bull case that Netflix is building a multi‑layered entertainment platform, not just a streaming app.
What Wall Street is saying: ratings, targets and sentiment
Consensus rating: generally a “Buy”
Across major data providers, Netflix carries a positive but not euphoric rating profile:
MarketBeat: 45 analysts, with the bulk rating NFLX a “Moderate Buy / Buy”.
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StockAnalysis.com: 32 analysts, consensus “Buy”.
StockAnalysis
Bitget’s meta‑review notes roughly 30 Buy, 2 Strong Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell ratings aggregated from major brokers.
Bitget
In other words, Wall Street is constructively bullish on Netflix, but expectations are already high.
12‑month price targets
Recent target ranges cluster fairly tightly:
MarketBeat: average 12‑month target $133.90, with a $72–160 range, implying roughly 24–25% upside from the current ~$108 price.
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StockAnalysis.com: average target $134.09, median $140, low $87.5, high $160—also pointing to about 24% upside.
StockAnalysis
Recent broker updates include Rosenblatt, which trimmed its target from $153 to $152 while maintaining a Buy rating, and a spread of forecasts from around $110 (Barclays) to $160 (more bullish shops).
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Short‑term, most research desks see double‑digit upside if Netflix hits its revenue and margin goals for 2026, but there is clearly disagreement over how much growth should be worth.
2025–2030 long‑term forecasts
A detailed forecast from 24/7 Wall St outlines one popular long‑term scenario:
End‑2025 fair‑value price: $121.54
2026 target: $143.71
2027: $154.60
2028: $165.92
2029: $189.44
2030: $222.30
These targets assume:
~12% annual revenue growth through the decade
Margins gradually rising towards ~25%
Netflix maintaining clear leadership in global streaming while scaling ads, live events and games
24/7 Wall St.
Other recent commentary (including from Bitget and Barchart) generally envisions 20–30% potential upside by late 2026, with many targets clustered in the $135–$150 range post‑split—again, contingent on Netflix sustaining high‑teens revenue growth and around 20%+ FCF margins.
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Key bullish arguments around NFLX right now
Based on the latest research, these are the main points bulls keep coming back to:
Scale and leadership
Over 300 million subscribers and leading share in many key markets give Netflix a structural advantage in content amortization and distribution.
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24/7 Wall St.
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High‑margin ad growth
The ad‑supported tier is growing fast, with ad revenue expected to double in 2025 and potentially become a double‑digit percentage of total revenue within a few years.
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PPC Land
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Powerful free cash flow
With $9 billion of FCF targeted for 2025 and content spend still heavily front‑loaded, Netflix has the flexibility to fund content, invest in new verticals, and repurchase stock.
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TheDesk.net
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Stock split + potential Dow inclusion
The 10‑for‑1 split makes NFLX more accessible and revives chatter about Dow Jones inclusion, which could be a meaningful technical catalyst if it happens.
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Track record of adaptation
From DVDs to streaming to original content and now to ads, live events and gaming, Netflix has repeatedly re‑invented its model and often led the broader industry’s strategic direction.
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24/7 Wall St.
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Key risks and bear arguments investors are watching
Of course, the bullish story isn’t the whole story. Recent analysis also highlights several meaningful risks:
Rich valuation
Depending on the exact earnings estimates, Netflix trades at mid‑30s to low‑40s forward P/E and a modest FCF yield, which leaves limited room for disappointment if growth slows.
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Intense competition and potential consolidation
Rivals such as Disney+, Amazon, Apple TV+, Max, Peacock and Paramount+ are still aggressively competing for sports rights, franchises and international share.
Ongoing M&A speculation (for example around Warner Bros. Discovery) could create stronger bundled competitors.
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Regulatory and tax exposures
The Brazilian tax dispute that caused the $619 million Q3 charge underlines that global tax and regulatory risk is real and can impact margins abruptly.
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Financial Times
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Content spending and hit‑driven economics
Netflix still plans about $18 billion in content spend for 2025. If big‑ticket shows or live events underperform, it could pressure ROI and margin.
FinancialContent
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TheDesk.net
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Saturation in mature markets
Growth in North America and Western Europe is naturally slowing; sustaining high‑teens revenue growth will depend on continued pricing power, ad monetization and international expansion, not easy subscriber wins.
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TV Tech
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Sentiment and technicals
After a big multi‑year run and a high‑profile split, the shareholder base includes many momentum and retail traders. Volatility could spike if Netflix misses a quarter or if streaming sentiment cools.
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So… is Netflix stock a buy after the split?
Financial media and analysts are split between “solid long‑term compounder” and “great company, demanding valuation.” Recent articles from Barchart, Motley Fool, MarketBeat and others generally agree on a few things:
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The core business is strong, with high engagement, resilient demand and a rapidly growing ad segment.
The 10‑for‑1 split is cosmetic in fundamental terms but may improve liquidity and index eligibility.
On current estimates, most 12‑month targets sit 20–30% above today’s price, but that upside assumes Netflix continues to deliver double‑digit revenue growth and near‑30% margins.
Whether NFLX is attractive for you depends on:
Your tolerance for valuation risk and tech/streaming volatility
How confident you are that Netflix can maintain its lead, grow advertising and manage content costs
Your time horizon (multi‑year compounding vs. short‑term trading)
This article is for information and education only and is not investment advice. If you’re considering investing in Netflix—or any single stock—it’s wise to:
Look at your overall portfolio and risk profile
Read the company’s latest shareholder letter and 10‑Q
Consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor before making decisions
