Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) stock traded modestly higher in early Tuesday action, hovering around $93.64 and up about 0.44% on the day as investors digested the latest developments in the high-stakes contest for Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming assets—a deal that has become the dominant driver of near-term sentiment around Netflix shares.
While Netflix’s long-term story still rests on execution in streaming, advertising, and content efficiency, today’s market focus is narrower: deal certainty, financing cost, and regulatory risk—and whether Netflix will need to sweeten terms if Paramount Skydance keeps pressing. [1]
Netflix stock price today (Dec. 23, 2025)
As of 14:39 UTC on Tuesday, Dec. 23, NFLX was last indicated at $93.64, with an intraday range of roughly $93.05–$93.76 on volume just over 2.1 million shares at that time.
That “steady but cautious” tape matches the reality: the market is still trying to price what Netflix’s Warner push could mean for leverage, integration risk, and the time (and friction) required to clear regulators.
The headline that’s moving the story: Paramount upgrades its offer — and a major investor says it’s still not enough
On Monday, Dec. 22, Paramount Skydance amended its hostile bid for Warner Bros. Discovery and added an “irrevocable” personal guarantee from Oracle founder Larry Ellison for $40.4 billion of financing—an attempt to address investor worries about the structure and reliability of the funding. Paramount also lifted the regulatory failure fee it would pay if blocked to $5.8 billion, matching the scale of Netflix’s regulatory-protection economics, while keeping the bid at $30 per share. [2]
But in a Reuters report published Dec. 23, Harris Oakmark (described as Warner Bros.’ fifth-largest shareholder) said Paramount’s changes were “necessary, but not sufficient,” and signaled it would hold out for a bigger incentive if Paramount is serious about winning. [3]
In short: Paramount may have improved perceived “certainty,” but at least one large holder is effectively saying “show us more money.”
What Netflix is offering — and why the structure matters for NFLX shareholders
Netflix’s agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s Streaming & Studios business (after the planned separation of Discovery Global) values WBD at $27.75 per share, comprised of:
- $23.25 in cash, plus
- $4.50 in Netflix stock (subject to a collar mechanism tied to Netflix’s VWAP near closing). [4]
Netflix’s investor release puts the implied valuation at about $72.0 billion equity value and $82.7 billion enterprise value, with the separation of Discovery Global expected to be completed in Q3 2026 before the deal closes. [5]
Why this matters for Netflix stock: the cash component and financing profile influence perceived balance-sheet risk, while the stock collar can affect dilution math and “who bears what” if NFLX shares move materially between now and closing.
Financing update: Netflix works to reduce reliance on the $59B bridge loan
One of the most closely watched pressure points for Netflix stock has been how it funds the Warner transaction.
According to a Reuters report citing a regulatory filing, Netflix has refinanced a portion of its $59 billion bridge facility by putting in place:
- a $5 billion revolving credit facility, and
- two $10 billion delayed-draw term loans,
leaving roughly $34 billion of the bridge facility to be syndicated. [6]
A TipRanks analysis framed the move as swapping part of the bridge financing for forms of debt typically viewed as cheaper than bridge loans, and noted that the refinancing became public via a regulatory document filed Monday. [7]
For NFLX investors, this is a tangible “risk management” signal: Netflix appears to be trying to lower borrowing costs and improve financing optics—even as the absolute deal size remains a market overhang.
Deal protections and breakup fees: the stakes are huge
The deal’s termination terms are not subtle.
A Netflix filing summary indicates:
- Warner Bros. Discovery may owe Netflix a $2.8 billion fee under certain conditions tied to a competing transaction, and
- Netflix may owe Warner Bros. Discovery a $5.8 billion termination fee in certain scenarios related to regulatory/antitrust failure (or certain approval-related blocks). [8]
These figures matter because they increase the cost of switching paths and raise the pressure on each side to show conviction—especially as Paramount pushes its tender process forward.
“Toss-up” vs. “certainty”: how investors are splitting today
Reuters captured a market dynamic that’s become central to the Netflix stock debate: even if Paramount’s bid is higher per share, the WBD board and some investors emphasize certainty and structure over headline price.
- Harris Oakmark (per Reuters) described the two deal paths as a “toss-up” but stressed that changing direction has a cost—and would require a greater incentive. [9]
- Another investor told Reuters he may take Paramount’s revised offer if Netflix doesn’t counter, arguing Paramount could have a better chance with regulators. [10]
Meanwhile, Warner’s board has reiterated support for the Netflix transaction and is reviewing the revised Paramount terms without changing its current recommendation. [11]
Today’s analysis focus: Will Netflix need to raise cash, raise price, or just wait?
A TheWrap analysis highlighted how the tender process is evolving and suggested the fight may be far from over. The piece reports that fewer than 400,000 Warner shares had been tendered into Paramount’s offer at that time, and it includes commentary arguing Netflix could improve optics by making the offer simpler (for example, “more cash” rather than a complex structure). [12]
Barron’s similarly emphasized that despite Paramount’s financing upgrades, at least one major shareholder remains unconvinced the revised proposal is enough to beat Netflix’s agreed deal. [13]
The takeaway for Netflix shareholders: even if Netflix ultimately “wins,” the market is pricing a scenario where Netflix may have to defend the deal—either by improving terms, strengthening financing, or navigating a longer regulatory process.
Regulatory risk: the single biggest variable in the NFLX setup
On the regulatory front, Reuters noted that either deal route would face heavy scrutiny, citing concerns about media consolidation and reporting that President Donald Trump has indicated he plans to weigh in on the transactions. [14]
For Netflix stock specifically, the regulatory question is double-edged:
- If the deal clears, Netflix could emerge with a dramatically expanded premium library and franchise pipeline.
- If approval is delayed or blocked, the stock could see renewed pressure—especially given the $5.8B termination-fee exposure under certain regulatory outcomes. [15]
Wall Street forecasts for Netflix stock: where targets cluster right now
Despite the deal noise, many analyst models still imply substantial upside—though targets have become more dispersed and some firms have cut numbers recently.
- StockAnalysis lists a “Buy” consensus among 33 analysts and an average one-year price target around $131 (with targets ranging from $87.5 to $152.5). [16]
- TipRanks cites an average target around $132.59 and a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on recent analyst mixes. [17]
- MarketScreener’s running feed shows a string of December note activity—including Morgan Stanley cutting its target to $120 from $150 (while maintaining Overweight) and Wolfe Research trimming to $121 from $139, alongside other rating and target changes around the deal announcement window. [18]
A separate Nasdaq.com piece (from The Motley Fool, published Dec. 23) argued Netflix stock is down materially from its highs due to acquisition concerns, while noting a median target price around $132 and highlighting the view that earnings growth expectations could remain strong if Netflix executes. [19]
Technical and trading levels: what the indicators say on Dec. 23
From a technical perspective, Investing.com’s daily indicator set shows a cautious/negative skew:
- 14-day RSI: ~41.651 (flagged as “Sell”)
- MACD: negative (flagged as “Sell”)
- Longer moving averages (including 50-day ~94.58 and 200-day ~102.95) are also shown as “Sell” signals in that snapshot. [20]
In plain English: the stock is stabilizing today, but many indicators still reflect the post-deal-announcement drawdown and risk premium.
What to watch next: two near-term dates that can move NFLX
1) Paramount’s tender clock (for WBD shareholders)
Paramount’s amended offer extended the decision window to Jan. 21, 2026 (from Jan. 8), keeping the “will Netflix counter?” narrative alive into January. [21]
2) Netflix earnings: Jan. 20, 2026
Netflix has announced it will publish Q4 2025 results and outlook on Jan. 20, 2026, followed by a live video earnings interview later that day. [22]
Why that matters: earnings could reset the conversation toward fundamentals—subscriber trends, margins, ad-tier traction—at a time when the stock narrative is heavily M&A-driven. Netflix’s investor materials also describe the company as having over 300 million paid memberships globally, underscoring the scale regulators and investors will evaluate in any major consolidation scenario. [23]
Bottom line for Netflix stock on Dec. 23, 2025
Netflix stock is firming slightly today, but the market’s center of gravity remains the Warner contest:
- Paramount is trying to improve certainty with a major financing guarantee—without raising price. [24]
- Netflix is working to improve its own financing profile by refinancing part of its bridge loan into structures perceived as cheaper and more flexible. [25]
- Analysts still see meaningful upside in many models, but targets and commentary reflect a higher “deal risk” discount than Netflix carried before the Warner announcement. [26]
For now, NFLX is trading like a stock in a waiting room: investors are watching for either a countermove, a clear regulatory signal, or a shift back to fundamentals when Netflix reports earnings in January.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. ir.netflix.net, 5. ir.netflix.net, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.tipranks.com, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.thewrap.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.tipranks.com, 18. www.marketscreener.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.investing.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. ir.netflix.net, 23. ir.netflix.net, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. stockanalysis.com
