NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:55 a.m. ET — Market closed (weekend)
Netflix, Inc. stock (NASDAQ: NFLX) is off the tape on Sunday with U.S. markets closed, but investors have plenty to digest before the next regular session on Monday, Dec. 29. The immediate backdrop: NFLX ended the last trading day of the week near $94.47, while the streaming giant’s push into marquee live sports drew renewed scrutiny after Christmas Day broadcasts that sparked a wave of viewer complaints about production choices and stream quality. [1]
Netflix stock price recap: where NFLX last traded
Netflix shares last closed Friday, Dec. 26 at $94.47, with extended-hours trading last indicated near $94.35 later that evening. Friday’s session saw a $93–$95 trading range and roughly ~22 million shares traded, reflecting typical end-of-week liquidity while investors positioned into year-end. [2]
For context, Netflix’s 52-week range has spanned roughly $82.11 to $134.12, underlining how quickly sentiment has swung in 2025—from momentum-driven highs earlier in the year to a tougher tape more recently. [3]
The last 24–48 hours: the headlines investors are watching
With no Sunday trading, much of the latest conversation around NFLX is being driven by weekend media coverage and social chatter—especially on Netflix’s high-profile live sports push.
1) NFL Christmas Day games on Netflix: mixed reviews, technical complaints
Multiple outlets reported that Netflix’s Christmas Day NFL slate generated criticism from viewers on social media—ranging from picture quality and buffering complaints to frustration with Zoom-style interviews and other production decisions during gameplay. [4]
- Sports Business Journal described Netflix’s second year carrying NFL Christmas Day games as receiving “mixed reviews,” with fan displeasure centered on broadcast presentation choices and on-screen elements. [5]
- Awful Announcing reported that complaints included poor stream quality and difficulty watching live, while also noting that the reaction appeared less severe than Netflix’s widely criticized 2024 Paul–Tyson boxing stream—and that the scrutiny will intensify as Netflix leans further into live sports in 2026. [6]
- Social sentiment trackers like QuiverQuant also flagged heightened online discussion around alleged lags and low-resolution feeds—an indicator of what may influence Monday’s opening tone, even if the underlying fundamentals haven’t changed overnight. [7]
Why it matters for the stock: Netflix’s live-event ambitions are closely tied to advertising and engagement. If live sports becomes a bigger pillar of its growth narrative, investors will watch execution and reliability as carefully as rights deals and content slates.
2) Weekend “stock talk”: bullish targets vs. a choppy chart
Analyst and market commentary over the weekend continues to highlight a split narrative around Netflix:
- The share price has pulled back meaningfully from earlier highs (a common theme in weekend investor notes), while
- sell-side targets remain materially above the current trading level, implying that many analysts still see upside if Netflix executes on ads, pricing, and its content flywheel.
Some retail-facing outlets have leaned into that gap in weekend pieces, including a Dec. 28 opinion article from The Motley Fool that frames Netflix as a durable long-term business despite near-term noise. [8]
The biggest fundamental swing factor: the Warner Bros. Discovery deal and financing
Beyond the day-to-day headlines, the single largest overhang—and potential catalyst—remains Netflix’s proposed acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming assets.
In the past two weeks, Reuters reported that Netflix refinanced part of the bridge loan tied to the transaction, outlining a funding package that included a $5 billion revolving credit facility and two $10 billion delayed-draw term loans, leaving a substantial portion still to be syndicated. [9]
Netflix has also detailed elements of the financing structure in SEC filings, including an 8‑K describing steps taken to replace portions of earlier bridge commitments with a more permanent funding structure. [10]
What investors typically focus on here:
- Balance sheet impact and cost of capital: Large financing packages can reshape valuation debates quickly, especially when rates and credit spreads are moving.
- Regulatory and closing timeline risk: Deal timelines—and the market’s confidence in them—often drive sharp re-pricings.
- Integration narrative: If Netflix is perceived as absorbing execution risk at the same time it expands live sports, volatility can rise.
Ads + live events: why “execution” is now a stock catalyst
Netflix’s ad business is one of the market’s most watched “second engine” stories—and it’s directly connected to live programming performance.
In a Reuters report earlier this quarter, Netflix said ads on its platform reach more than 190 million monthly active viewers and introduced a viewer-based metric to better represent ad reach; co-CEO Greg Peters said Netflix had its strongest quarter in ad sales and expected to more than double ad revenue over the year. [11]
That same Reuters report also described Netflix’s plans for more advanced ad tooling—such as dynamic ad insertion—across live programming. [12]
Taken together, that’s why the market tends to react strongly to headlines about live-event streaming quality: it’s not just reputational—it can touch the ad roadmap, premium pricing power, and the confidence advertisers have in Netflix’s ability to deliver “must-see” moments at scale.
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street sees Netflix stock in 2026
Despite the recent pullback, aggregated analyst estimates still point to meaningful upside—though targets vary widely.
- MarketBeat shows a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on 45 analyst ratings, with an average price target around $129.68 (about ~37% implied upside from the recent price area), and targets ranging from $72.00 to $152.50. [13]
- StockAnalysis reports a consensus “Buy” with an average target near $131, with a low of $87.50 and a high of $152.50. [14]
Recent named analyst actions listed by StockAnalysis include:
- James Heaney (Jefferies) maintaining a “Strong Buy” while trimming a target from $150 to $134 (Dec. 11, 2025). [15]
- Laura Martin (Needham) reiterating a “Strong Buy” with a $150 target (Dec. 9, 2025). [16]
- Maria Ripps (Canaccord Genuity) maintaining a “Strong Buy” with a $153 target (Dec. 8, 2025). [17]
The takeaway: the Street’s base case still prices in an improving medium-term story (ads, operating leverage, content efficiency), but the dispersion in targets signals disagreement about deal risk, competition, and how durable Netflix’s margins and growth rates will be.
What investors should know before Monday’s session
With markets closed today, the most practical “setup” work for NFLX holders into Monday is catalyst-focused:
- Watch for any company response or follow-up reporting on the NFL Christmas Day streaming experience (technical quality and broadcast decisions). The market tends to price these headlines quickly at the open when narrative momentum is involved. [18]
- Track Warner deal financing and regulatory signals. Any new reporting about the syndication of debt, revised terms, or regulatory posture could move NFLX even without broader market catalysts. [19]
- Know the next major scheduled catalyst: earnings. Netflix has said it will post Q4 2025 financial results and business outlook on Tuesday, Jan. 20, 2026, after the market close (posted at approximately 1:01 p.m. PT). That date is likely to shape positioning well ahead of the report. [20]
- Respect the range: With a 52-week span of roughly $82–$134, NFLX has demonstrated it can move sharply when either the growth narrative or execution confidence shifts. [21]
Bottom line for Netflix stock heading into the next session
Netflix stock enters the next trading day with a classic “cross-current” setup: analyst targets that imply upside, a major M&A/financing storyline that can re-rate the risk profile, and a live-sports execution debate that can sway near-term sentiment.
Monday’s open will likely reflect which of those narratives gains the most traction over the next 24 hours—particularly whether the market treats the Christmas Day NFL streaming complaints as a short-lived PR bump or as a signal that Netflix still has operational work to do before live events become a true valuation driver. [22]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. awfulannouncing.com, 5. www.sportsbusinessjournal.com, 6. awfulannouncing.com, 7. www.quiverquant.com, 8. www.fool.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. awfulannouncing.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. ir.netflix.net, 21. www.investing.com, 22. awfulannouncing.com
