NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 6:17 p.m. ET — Market closed
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) stock is heading into the final trading week of 2025 with investors focused on one big question: can the streaming leader protect its historically disciplined financial model while pursuing a transformational acquisition that could remake the media landscape?
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, Netflix shares last finished Friday’s regular session at $94.47, up 0.89% on the day, after trading between $93.27 and $94.69. After-hours trading ended slightly lower at $94.35. [1]
The backdrop is a year-end market that has remained constructive overall, even as individual mega-cap names have diverged. Investor’s Business Daily reported the broader market has stayed strong into late December, with major indexes pressing to fresh highs and portfolio managers preparing for the final “Santa rally” stretch. [2]
The headline driver for NFLX: financing and uncertainty around the Warner Bros. transaction
Netflix’s stock narrative in late December continues to revolve around its proposed Warner Bros. Discovery transaction—and, more specifically, the financing and timeline risks investors must discount while the deal works through regulatory and integration hurdles.
Reuters reported this week that Netflix refinanced part of a $59 billion bridge loan tied to the potential acquisition, including a $5 billion revolving credit facility and two $10 billion delayed-draw term loans, leaving roughly $34 billion of the bridge facility to be syndicated. Reuters said proceeds are intended to fund the cash portion of the deal, related fees, and general corporate purposes. [3]
The same Reuters report also underscored the longer runway: the deal is expected to close after Warner Bros. Discovery completes a planned spinoff of its Global Networks unit in Q3 2026. [4]
Why it matters for Netflix stock: a longer closing timeline can create an “overhang” where NFLX valuation and sentiment are pulled between (1) optimism about expanding IP and scale and (2) concern about leverage, execution, and the risk of paying too much in a competitive process.
The last 24–48 hours: ad-supported streaming becomes the new “default” for many viewers
While there were no major Netflix SEC filings released over the weekend, one of the most relevant developments in the last 48 hours for Netflix investors came from the evolving ad-tier economics.
A new report from The Guardian said the UK has hit a notable milestone: streaming subscribers on ad-supported plans have overtaken ad-free subscriptions for the first time. The Guardian cited Ampere Analysis forecasting nearly 26.5 million UK subscribers on ad-supported tiers by year-end, with ad-free subscriptions falling to about 23.1 million. [5]
Ampere executive director Richard Broughton framed it as a structural shift, saying the streaming market is reaching an “inflection point.” [6]
For Netflix stock, the implication is nuanced:
- Bull case: Ad-supported tiers can broaden the addressable market and add a new revenue stream as Netflix scales ad tech and demand.
- Bear case: If ad-tier adoption comes primarily from customers “trading down” from premium tiers, it can pressure average revenue per user unless advertising monetization ramps quickly.
Notably, The Guardian also reported Netflix has indicated it does not expect ads to be a primary revenue driver until at least 2026—which may help explain why the market is still demanding proof in the numbers, not just growth in ad-tier reach. [7]
Fresh investor commentary today: valuation scrutiny rises as the model gets more complex
In a widely circulated weekend read, Motley Fool contributor Daniel Sparks argued that a giant studio purchase would make Netflix’s historically streamlined model more complex and raise the bar for valuation support, especially if Netflix limits near-term synergies by maintaining Warner’s operations. [8]
This kind of commentary resonates with what markets often do during deal cycles: even investors who like the strategic logic may wait for clarity on purchase price, financing mix, timeline, and integration plans before re-rating the stock higher.
Wall Street forecasts: where analysts see Netflix stock over the next 12 months
Despite the deal uncertainty, aggregated sell-side sentiment still leans positive—though not without visible dispersion.
StockAnalysis.com, which compiles analyst targets and rating actions, shows:
- Consensus rating: Buy
- Average 12-month price target:$131
- Median target:$138.50
- High target:$152.50
- Low target:$87.50 [9]
The same dataset highlights how the Warner transaction has reshaped recent rating actions. For example:
- Jefferies analyst James Heaney maintained a Strong Buy but reduced a target from $150 to $134 (Dec. 11). [10]
- Pivotal Research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak downgraded from Strong Buy to Hold and cut $160 to $105 (Dec. 8). [11]
- Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett similarly downgraded Strong Buy to Hold and lowered $152 to $105 (Dec. 8). [12]
MarketBeat’s broader roll-up (45 analysts) also lands in a similar place: a Moderate Buy consensus and an average price target around $129.68, with a wide low-to-high range. [13]
The takeaway: Wall Street still sees upside from current levels, but the path—and the multiple investors are willing to pay—depends heavily on how the Warner process evolves.
What investors should know before the next session
Because the market is closed, Monday’s open becomes the next chance for NFLX to reprice to headlines—either company-specific (deal, regulatory, competitor bidding) or macro-driven (rates, risk appetite, year-end positioning).
1) Know the schedule: regular trading returns Monday morning
NYSE core hours run 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. [14]
Nasdaq-listed stocks also trade in extended sessions, with Nasdaq noting pre-market from 4:00 a.m. to 9:30 a.m. ET and after-hours from 4:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. ET (broker access varies). [15]
2) Watch next week’s U.S. data calendar for rate-sensitive moves
Even for a media stock like Netflix, late-year trading can be heavily macro-driven when liquidity is thin. MarketWatch’s economic calendar preview lists Pending Home Sales (Nov.) at 10:00 a.m. ET on Monday (Dec. 29), followed by other housing-related data through the week. [16]
3) Holiday week mechanics can amplify moves
Investopedia reported that stocks will have a full trading day on New Year’s Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 31), while markets will be closed on New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026)—a setup that can concentrate repositioning into fewer sessions. [17]
For reference, Nasdaq’s published U.S. market holiday schedule also confirms the Jan. 1 closure and details standard and extended-hours trading windows. [18]
4) Keep an eye on the next “hard catalyst”: Netflix earnings on Jan. 20
Nasdaq-hosted commentary for investors points to Jan. 20 as the date to watch for Netflix’s next major update—and stresses that management commentary around the proposed Warner Bros. Discovery deal could be especially market-moving. [19]
Bottom line for Netflix stock heading into Monday
Netflix enters the last trading week of 2025 with its share price stabilizing near the mid-$90s, while investors weigh a potentially historic Warner transaction against a streaming market that’s rapidly embracing ad-supported tiers.
Going into Monday’s session, the biggest swing factors for NFLX are likely to be:
- Deal headline risk (financing, timeline, bidding dynamics) [20]
- Proof of ad-tier monetization as the industry shifts toward ads for affordability [21]
- Analyst re-ratings and price target revisions as valuation resets to reflect the new risk profile [22]
With markets reopening Monday, investors should be prepared for headline-driven gaps—particularly in thin year-end liquidity—while keeping one eye on Jan. 20 as the next scheduled moment when Netflix can reduce uncertainty with fresh numbers and clearer guidance. [23]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.investors.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.theguardian.com, 6. www.theguardian.com, 7. www.theguardian.com, 8. www.fool.com, 9. stockanalysis.com, 10. stockanalysis.com, 11. stockanalysis.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.nyse.com, 15. www.nasdaq.com, 16. www.marketwatch.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.theguardian.com, 22. stockanalysis.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com
