Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) is trading around $94.79 on Thursday, December 18, 2025, keeping investors’ attention locked on one thing above all else: the company’s blockbuster bid for Warner Bros. Discovery’s Streaming & Studios assets and the fast-escalating counter-moves around it. [1]
With a market capitalization of roughly $433 billion, Netflix is big enough that a deal of this size doesn’t just move the stock on headlines—it reshapes the debate around Netflix’s identity: streamer, studio, ad business, live sports platform, or an all-of-the-above entertainment utility. [2]
Below is a full roundup of the current news (dated Dec. 18, 2025) plus the most relevant forecasts and analyst analysis investors are using today to handicap what comes next for NFLX stock.
Why Netflix stock is in focus on Dec. 18: the Warner Bros. endgame is getting louder
1) New Dec. 18 headline: Standard General is in talks around WBD’s cable networks (CNN, etc.)
A fresh twist hit on Dec. 18: Reuters reports that hedge fund Standard General founder Soo Kim has been in talks about potentially buying or investing in Warner Bros. Discovery’s television networks, after being approached by at least one major WBD shareholder, according to the Financial Times. The reported assets include cable networks such as CNN. [3]
Why this matters for Netflix investors: Netflix’s agreed transaction structure leaves WBD’s Global Networks behind in a separate company (often described as a “stub” or “spin”). Any credible interest in those networks can influence how markets think about the value of the pieces Netflix isn’t buying—and how messy the overall chessboard could get before the shareholder vote. [4]
2) The Warner board is publicly backing Netflix—and rejecting Paramount’s hostile offer
On Dec. 17, Warner Bros. Discovery’s board formally rejected Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid, calling it “illusory” and arguing it lacked adequate financing assurances—while describing Netflix’s deal as a binding agreement with committed financing. [5]
Netflix, for its part, published a statement welcoming WBD’s board recommendation and reiterated the key deal framing: “best option for long-term value,” and a future that keeps Warner films in theaters with a traditional window. [6]
The Netflix–Warner Bros. deal: terms, timeline, and what Netflix says it can earn from it
Netflix’s definitive announcement lays out the mechanics clearly:
- Consideration to WBD shareholders:$23.25 in cash + $4.50 in Netflix stock per WBD share (with the stock component governed by a collar tied to Netflix’s 15-day VWAP). [7]
- Implied valuation:$27.75 per share, total equity value ~$72.0B, total enterprise value ~$82.7B. [8]
- What Netflix is buying: WBD’s Streaming & Studios assets (including Warner Bros. film/TV studios and HBO / HBO Max), after WBD completes its planned separation of Global Networks into a new company (“Discovery Global”). [9]
- Expected closing timeline: Netflix and WBD say 12–18 months (and the company has repeated that timeline in SEC-filed communications). [10]
- Netflix synergy/earnings claims: Netflix says it expects $2–$3B of cost savings per year by year three and expects the transaction to be accretive to GAAP EPS by year two. [11]
That last bullet is the financial heart of the bull case: Netflix is telling the market this isn’t just about “owning IP,” it’s also about scaling operating income—fast enough to matter even after financing costs and integration risk. [12]
Paramount’s counter-narrative: “more cash, less market risk, better regulatory odds”
Paramount’s public messaging (Dec. 17) boils down to three arguments:
- $30 per share in cash beats Netflix’s $23.25 cash component (Paramount calls it an ~$18B aggregate difference). [13]
- Netflix’s stock-linked portion is exposed to market moves, and Paramount claims NFLX is trading below the collar range referenced in the Netflix deal structure. [14]
- Paramount argues its deal would improve competition rather than “entrench a dominant streaming monopoly,” implying smoother antitrust clearance. [15]
WBD’s board and Netflix have pushed back hard on the financing structure and certainty. WBD’s SEC-filed materials emphasize concerns around the revocable trust backing Paramount’s proposal and argue there’s no meaningful difference in regulatory risk between the Paramount and Netflix paths. [16]
The regulatory clock: DOJ + EU scrutiny, HSR filing, and a huge reverse termination fee
For NFLX shareholders, regulatory timing is arguably the “real earnings report” of this saga.
Netflix has stated (in SEC-filed communications) that it has already submitted its HSR filing and is engaging with competition authorities including the U.S. Department of Justice and the European Commission. [17]
Netflix also disclosed a $5.8 billion reverse termination fee, describing it as the largest cash regulatory termination fee in a public M&A transaction—signaling how seriously the company is treating regulatory risk (and how expensive failure would be). [18]
Meanwhile, commentary pieces are increasingly focused on Europe. The Los Angeles Times notes Paramount’s argument that regulators “in most jurisdictions abroad” would scrutinize a Netflix-WBD combination, especially given Netflix’s dominance. [19]
A separate legal analysis from Duane Morris highlights that the deal’s structure (splitting WBD assets and the question of market definition) will be central to whether regulators see the combination as harmful consolidation. [20]
Bottom line: even if the business logic is compelling, the calendar can still punish the stock—especially if investors conclude the deal will take longer than expected, require divestitures, or fail outright.
Wall Street forecasts on Netflix stock: price targets are diverging, not converging
Consensus: still bullish—on average
MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot shows:
- Average 12‑month price target:$130.51
- High:$152.50
- Low:$72.00
- Based on 45 analysts’ targets (as tracked there). [21]
That spread is massive, and it’s telling you what the market is really debating: Netflix’s core business quality is widely respected, but the Warner deal injects uncertainty that some analysts model as a real downside scenario.
Key calls investors are reacting to right now
- Morgan Stanley (Dec. 18): price target cut to $120 from $150, while maintaining Overweight (reported via MT Newswires/MarketScreener). [22]
- UBS (Dec. 9): reiterated Buy, maintained $150 price target (per Investing.com’s analyst item). [23]
- Jefferies (Dec. 11): lowered price target to $134 from $150, maintained Buy (via The Fly/TipRanks). [24]
- Seaport Research (Dec. 11): cut its Netflix target to $115 from $138 due to uncertainty around the Warner transaction (Barron’s summary). [25]
- Pivotal Research (Dec. 8): downgraded NFLX from Buy to Hold and cut target to $105 from $160 amid Warner deal concerns (reported by The Hollywood Reporter). [26]
This mix—targets still mostly above the current price, but with very public downgrades—helps explain why NFLX can rally on “deal momentum” one day and sag on “deal risk” the next.
A valuation counterpoint: Morningstar’s fair value is far lower
Morningstar’s take (Dec. 18 posting) stands out: it says it maintains a fair value estimate of $77 for Netflix (alongside $28 for Warner and $20 for Paramount). [27]
Whether investors agree or not, it’s an important data point because it frames Netflix as potentially overvalued unless the company executes exceptionally well (or the market’s required return stays low).
Beyond the deal: what Netflix fundamentals are doing heading into 2026
The Warner deal is stealing oxygen, but Netflix’s underlying story still matters—especially if regulators drag the timeline into late 2026 or beyond.
Advertising: Netflix keeps saying “double”
Netflix executives have been consistent that advertising is scaling from a small base. WARC reports CFO Spencer Neumann said ad revenue is “on pace to roughly double,” which (based on prior-year figures) implies about $3B in ad revenue. [28]
Separate industry estimates cited by MediaPost projected Netflix would double ad revenue to around $3.0B–$3.1B for full-year 2025, with one estimate putting 2026 ad revenue at $4.6B. [29]
For NFLX stock, this matters because ads are the “second engine” that can expand margins without needing endless subscription price hikes.
Earnings reality check: Q3 miss, revenue in line
Netflix’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 2025) landed like this (as tracked by Investing.com):
- EPS $5.87 vs. $6.96 forecast
- Revenue $11.51B vs. $11.51B forecast [30]
Investors have also been watching for clarity on 2026 guidance (which the same page notes is expected in January). [31]
The next catalyst: the next earnings date
Investing.com lists Netflix’s next earnings release date as Jan. 20, 2026 (period end 12/2025). [32]
Even in a deal-dominated market, earnings can reset the narrative quickly—especially if Netflix shows accelerating ad growth, resilient churn, and stable free cash flow.
Don’t forget the stock split: the price tag changed, not the business
Netflix completed a 10-for-1 forward stock split, with split-adjusted trading beginning Nov. 17, 2025, after a board approval announced Oct. 30. [33]
The company said the goal was to reset the share price into a range more accessible for employees participating in its stock option program. [34]
This matters for readers scanning charts or comparing old price targets: pre-split targets need to be mentally rescaled, and the psychological “cheapness” of a ~$95 share price is mostly illusion. The valuation is what it is.
A quick note on “guru” and quant-style analysis hitting today
Not all coverage is deal drama. A Nasdaq/Validea piece dated Dec. 18 says Netflix rates 87% under a Peter Lynch-style “reasonable price relative to earnings growth” model (Validea’s framework). [35]
Take that as one input—not a verdict—but it helps explain why many investors still see Netflix as structurally high quality even while debating whether this specific deal is the right move.
What investors will watch next (the NFLX stock checklist)
Over the coming weeks and months, NFLX’s next big moves likely won’t come from content releases—they’ll come from paperwork, politics, and pricing:
- Proxy and S‑4 filings for the Netflix/WBD transaction (Netflix explicitly signaled these will be filed). [36]
- Regulatory signals from DOJ and the European Commission; Netflix says it’s already engaging them. [37]
- Any renewed bid escalation from Paramount (and whether financing gets clearer). [38]
- WBD shareholder timing: Reuters reported expectations for a shareholder vote in spring or early summer 2026. [39]
- Netflix Q4 earnings in January 2026, a near-term fundamental reset. [40]
The bottom line for Netflix stock on Dec. 18, 2025
Netflix stock is behaving like a company with two competing identities right now:
- A proven global entertainment platform growing its ad business and defending its moat; and
- A mega-deal acquirer taking on a complex regulatory and integration path that could dominate headlines for 12–18 months (or more). [41]
That tension is why you’re seeing high analyst targets alongside sharp downgrades, and why “good news” in the Warner bidding war can lift NFLX even as “deal risk” can drag it. [42]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. ir.netflix.net, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. ir.netflix.net, 7. ir.netflix.net, 8. ir.netflix.net, 9. ir.netflix.net, 10. ir.netflix.net, 11. ir.netflix.net, 12. ir.netflix.net, 13. www.paramount.com, 14. www.paramount.com, 15. www.paramount.com, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.latimes.com, 20. www.duanemorris.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketscreener.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.hollywoodreporter.com, 27. global.morningstar.com, 28. www.warc.com, 29. www.mediapost.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.investing.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. ir.netflix.net, 34. ir.netflix.net, 35. www.nasdaq.com, 36. ir.netflix.net, 37. www.sec.gov, 38. www.paramount.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.investing.com, 41. ir.netflix.net, 42. www.marketbeat.com
