Between Monday 1 December and Friday 5 December 2025, the New Zealand stock market squeezed a lot of action into a very small headline move. The S&P/NZX 50 Index ended the week at 13,483.99, down just 0.04% from the previous Friday’s close of 13,489.15 – essentially flat despite some sharp swings during the week. The Bottom Line
Beneath that calm surface, investors had to digest:
- A new Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor, Anna Breman, taking office. Reuters
- The aftermath of a “hawkish” OCR cut to 2.25% just days earlier. Good Returns
- Heavy moves in healthcare, property and utilities stocks. Good Returns
- A new regulatory wobble as MBIE opened an investigation into Financial Markets Authority chair Craig Stobo, prompting him to step aside. The Bottom Line
Here’s how the week unfolded – and what it might mean for the New Zealand sharemarket heading into the rest of December.
Weekly Performance: Flat Index, Busy Week
Looking at the S&P/NZX 50’s daily closes tells the real story: Good Returns
- Monday 1 Dec: 13,448.49 (▼0.3%)
- Tuesday 2 Dec: 13,502.77 (▲0.4%)
- Wednesday 3 Dec: 13,582.54 (▲0.6%)
- Thursday 4 Dec: 13,515.62 (▼0.5%)
- Friday 5 Dec: 13,483.99 (▼0.23%)
From last Friday to this Friday, the index slipped just 5.16 points, a 0.04% decline for the week – exactly the figure highlighted in The Bottom Line’s weekly wrap, which described the local market as having “limped into the weekend”. The Bottom Line
At the same time, the index remains very close to all‑time highs. TradingEconomics and Google Finance data show the NZX 50 hit a record 13,747.71 in November and now trades within about 2% of that peak, with a 52‑week range of roughly 11,738 to 13,748. Trading Economics
In other words:
The New Zealand stock market has moved from “recovery rally” to “near‑record consolidation” – more sideways shuffling than dramatic re‑rating.
Monday: Quiet Start, Stronger Economic Tone
Headline: NZ sharemarket starts December down 0.3% Good Returns
The first trading day of December opened firmly but faded into the close:
- Index: 13,448.49 (▼40.66 points, ▼0.3%)
- Breadth: 63 gainers vs 81 decliners, $118.8m traded. Good Returns
Yet the underlying tone from local economists and strategists was surprisingly upbeat:
- Business confidence had climbed to its highest level in 11 years, supported by better retail sales and stabilising housing indicators. Good Returns
- Building permits for new dwellings were up 6.2% in the year to October, reinforcing the sense that the construction downturn has passed its worst. Good Returns
- The RBNZ’s November 25bp OCR cut to 2.25% – widely seen as the last of this cycle – continued to support risk sentiment. Good Returns
Craigs Investment Partners’ Mark Lister told GoodReturns that with rate cuts largely behind us and the economy stabilising, December could still deliver a respectable “Santa rally” and a stronger backdrop going into 2026, particularly for reliable dividend payers. Good Returns
On the stock front:
- Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH) extended its post‑result strength, edging up to $37.43.
- Fletcher Building, Freightways and Port of Tauranga all posted gains, pointing to renewed interest in domestically geared cyclicals. Good Returns
Tuesday: Healthcare and Infrastructure Lead a Rebound
Headline: NZ sharemarket up despite crypto concerns Good Returns
Tuesday brought a classic “bad headlines, good market” day. Wall Street had sold off on a sharp bitcoin slump and worries about leverage in crypto markets, yet the NZX 50 managed a 0.4% gain to 13,502.77. Good Returns
Key drivers:
- Defensive growth heavyweights did the heavy lifting:
- FPH rose to $38.00,
- Auckland International Airport to $8.09,
- Infratil to $11.75. Good Returns
- Market breadth improved: 67 gainers vs 62 decliners on robust turnover of $125.9m. Good Returns
Generate’s Greg Smith characterised the Wall Street move as an “unwinding of crypto”, arguing that money coming out of speculative assets could ultimately rotate back into more traditional equities – a theme that helped underpin local demand for healthcare and infrastructure names. Good Returns
Wednesday: Dairy and Gentailers Lift the Market
Headline: NZ sharemarket lifts late as dairy stocks gain Good Returns
Mid‑week, the NZX 50 added another 0.59% to close at 13,582.54, with 72 gainers and 63 decliners. Good Returns
The interesting part? The strength came despite another weak Global Dairy Trade auction:
- Dairy prices fell 4.3% from the previous sale and are now back around levels seen two years ago. Good Returns
- Even so, Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund units rose to $5.83, and a2 Milk gained to $10.80, as investors looked through the short‑term price dip to a still‑solid earnings backdrop. Good Returns
Rate‑sensitive gentailers also joined the party:
- Meridian Energy, Contact Energy and Mercury all advanced as investors continued to nibble at income names that had lagged earlier in the year. Good Returns
Still, Craigs’ Mark Lister noted that the market felt “subdued” after the excitement of the recent OCR cut. A bounce in wholesale interest rates suggested investors were already starting to price the next move from the RBNZ as up, not down, tempering enthusiasm for some high‑yield names. Good Returns
Thursday: Vital Healthcare and Ebos Drag Index Lower
Headline (GoodReturns & The Bottom Line):
Ebos Group sell‑off pushes down NZ sharemarket / Vital Healthcare leads NZX50 lower as retail investors fill up Good Returns
Thursday marked the bumpiest day of the week. The NZX 50 fell 0.49% to 13,515.62, with selling concentrated in healthcare and property. Good Returns
Stand‑out moves included:
- Vital Healthcare Property Trust slumping 4.6% to $1.89 after accepting extra subscriptions in an oversubscribed unit purchase plan, lifting the size of its capital raising. The Bottom Line
- Ebos Group sliding about 1.6% to $28.05 on a single extremely large crossing of 1.5 million shares – a block trade that spooked the rest of the market. Good Returns
- Index heavyweights FPH, Meridian Energy and Infratil also finished in the red, magnifying the index‑level decline. Good Returns
There was still good news beneath the surface:
- Fonterra reported a 5.7% lift in first‑quarter profit and flagged a planned $2 per security capital return from the sale of its Mainland consumer business, with units edging higher. Good Returns
- Stats NZ data showed a 1.5% rise in construction work put in place in the September quarter, with stronger‑than‑expected residential activity – a positive read‑through for Fletcher Building, which rose around 2% on the day. The Bottom Line
The Bottom Line described New Zealand’s market as “one of the laggards across Asia” that day, with regional peers in Australia and Japan mostly higher – a sign that Thursday’s weakness was more stock‑specific than macro‑driven. The Bottom Line
Friday: FPH Hit by New Sleep Apnoea Threat, Index Slips into Weekly Red
Headline: Fisher and Paykel Healthcare drives NZ stocks to weaker finish Good Returns
Friday’s session nudged the NZX 50 0.23% lower to 13,483.99, enough to leave the whole week marginally in the red. Good Returns
The key story was again Fisher & Paykel Healthcare:
- FPH fell 26c to $37.94, after news that the US Food and Drug Administration had granted “fast track” status to a potential pill‑based treatment for obstructive sleep apnoea – directly overlapping with one of FPH’s core respiratory markets. Good Returns
- Salt Funds’ Matt Goodson cautioned that any tablet solution is still very early‑stage, but acknowledged that, if successful, it would be “highly disruptive” to that segment. Good Returns
Balancing that:
- Fletcher Building jumped to $3.64, making it the best‑performing NZX 50 stock for the week (up about 8.7%), as investors welcomed the removal of US private placement notes from its balance sheet and better‑than‑expected construction and consenting data. The Bottom Line
- Overall breadth was mixed, with 66 gainers and 74 decliners, and turnover robust at $155m. Good Returns
The Bottom Line’s weekly piece put numbers around the move: the NZX 50 fell 31.63 points on Friday, closing the week 0.04% lower – a classic case of a market losing altitude without actually going anywhere. The Bottom Line
Central Bank Backdrop: New Governor, “Hawkish Cut” and Rising Yields
The most important macro story for New Zealand equities right now is still monetary policy.
- OCR at 2.25% – and likely on hold
- In late November, the RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate by 25bp to 2.25%, its lowest level in three years, but messaging around the decision clearly signalled that the easing cycle is effectively over. bbh.com
- A MarketNews and OFX wrap described the move as a “hawkish cut” – easing policy now while projecting only a small chance of further cuts in 2026. OFX (UK)
- New RBNZ governor Anna Breman takes over
- On 1 December, Swedish economist Dr Anna Breman formally began her five‑year term as RBNZ governor. Govt
- In her first appearance before a parliamentary committee, she stressed that keeping inflation low and stable remains the Bank’s top priority, especially because high inflation hurts low‑income households most, and pledged to improve transparency around monetary policy decisions. Reuters
- A separate Reuters profile noted that she inherits a central bank that has gone through budget cuts, leadership turmoil and public criticism, and that markets should expect some short‑term volatility as investors adjust to her style. Reuters
- Market impact: rates “done falling”, yields nudging higher
- Across the week, local strategists repeatedly pointed to a rebound in wholesale rates and swaps, as bond markets moved to price a more neutral (and eventually higher) policy stance. Good Returns
- That shift helps explain why some yield plays – particularly listed property and utilities – struggled even as confidence in the real economy improved. The Bottom Line
From an equity investor’s point of view, the message is simple:
- Ultra‑easy money is off the table,
- But the RBNZ is not in any rush to tighten policy aggressively,
- And a slowly improving domestic economy gives companies more room to grow earnings into 2026. yovich.co.nz
Regulation and Governance: MBIE Probe Hits the FMA
Regulatory noise also crept onto investors’ radar late in the week.
- On Friday, after the market closed, the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) confirmed it had launched an investigation into Financial Markets Authority chair Craig Stobo, who agreed to step aside temporarily from the FMA and his other Crown roles while the probe proceeds. The Bottom Line
At this stage, no details have been released and there is no evidence of market misconduct or systemic risk, but:
- The FMA is a key regulator for listed companies,
- Any extended uncertainty around its leadership could weigh on sentiment in the financials and governance‑sensitive parts of the market.
For now, markets have taken the news in stride, but institutional investors will be watching closely for updates from MBIE and the government. The Bottom Line
Key Sector and Stock Themes
1. Healthcare: From Market Darling to Mixed Picture
- FPH remains the NZX 50’s single largest constituent (around a 16% index weight), so its moves tend to dominate the benchmark. Good Returns
- Early in the week, the stock traded well on the back of a strong half‑year result. Good Returns
- Friday’s news of a potential tablet treatment for sleep apnoea in the US triggered profit‑taking, but analysts emphasised that the drug is in early stages and any competitive threat is years away. Good Returns
Meanwhile, Ebos and Vital Healthcare showed how sensitive healthcare‑adjacent names are to large block trades and capital raisings, reinforcing the idea that liquidity and balance sheet structure matter as much as headline earnings in this sector. Good Returns
2. Property and Infrastructure: Rate‑Sensitive But Still in Demand
- Listed property names such as Vital Healthcare, Kiwi Property Group, Investore and Stride traded heavily as investors reassessed rate expectations after the RBNZ’s cut and hawkish guidance. The Bottom Line
- Despite Thursday’s sell‑off, the bigger picture remains that every 25bp move in funding costs matters for REIT valuations, and the debate has shifted from “how much lower can yields go?” to “how long will they stay near these levels?” TechStock²
Infrastructure‑style names – Auckland Airport, Infratil, Meridian, Contact, Mercury – spent most of the week alternating between safe‑haven demand and modest profit‑taking, as global bond yields edged higher and investors juggled income with interest‑rate risk. Business Recorder
3. Cyclicals and Construction: Fletcher Building in Focus
- Fletcher Building emerged as the week’s surprise outperformer, rallying nearly 9% after simplifying its funding structure and benefiting from stronger‑than‑expected building and construction statistics. The Bottom Line
- The message from analysts is that while FBU still faces company‑specific challenges, a more supportive macro backdrop in 2026 – particularly if construction activity and consents continue to improve – could finally give the stock some breathing room. Good Returns
Outlook: Sideways Grind with a Chance of “Santa Rally”
Putting it all together, what does last week tell us about the New Zealand stock market outlook for the rest of December and into 2026?
1. Valuations Are Full, But Not Extreme
- With the NZX 50 sitting just a couple of percent below its record high of 13,747.71, the easy gains from the post‑pandemic recovery appear to be behind us. Trading Economics
- TradingView and Google Finance data both show the index comfortably above its 52‑week low, reinforcing the idea that we are in a late‑cycle upswing, not a distressed market. Google
2. Macro Backdrop: Gradual Recovery, No Emergency Easing
- RBNZ policy is now closer to neutral, with markets and commentators – including The Bottom Line’s Paul McBeth – broadly agreeing that the central bank is “done cutting rates” absent a fresh downturn. bbh.com
- Business and consumer confidence indicators have improved, building and construction numbers are stabilising, and dairy remains profitable for key exporters despite softer auction prices. anz.co.nz
That combination tends to support a moderately positive earnings outlook without justifying runaway multiple expansion.
3. Risks to Watch
Investors will want to keep an eye on:
- Global yields and central banks: The Fed is still widely expected to cut rates in the coming months, while markets also price potential hikes from the Bank of Japan – both of which can shift global risk appetite quickly. The Bottom Line
- Regulatory headlines: Any escalation in the MBIE investigation into the FMA chair could rekindle governance concerns, even if the underlying financial system remains sound. The Bottom Line
- Stock‑specific shocks: As FPH’s week showed, company‑level news – from clinical trial milestones abroad to block trades and capital raisings at home – can move the benchmark more than macro data on any given day. Good Returns
4. Base Case: Range‑Bound with Select Opportunities
Most of the commentary published between 1 and 6 December points to a range‑bound NZX 50 over the short term:
- Not cheap enough to be a screaming buy,
- Not expensive enough to trigger a wholesale sell‑off,
- With stock selection (particularly in healthcare, property, construction and export‑linked names) likely to matter more than broad index calls. TechStock²
For now, the New Zealand sharemarket looks like it’s catching its breath near record highs – waiting to see whether the combination of a new central bank governor, a stabilising domestic economy and a still‑fragile global backdrop will deliver a proper “Santa rally” or just more sideways churn into the New Year.
