Mumbai, Feb 28, 2026, 11:55 IST — The market shut its doors.
Nifty 50 closed out last week lower, sliding 1.25% on Friday to settle at 25,178.65. That marks a roughly 1.5% drop from its previous Friday finish at 25,571.25.
A late-session reversal finished off a tough month, as the benchmark posted its third consecutive monthly drop, with IT shares leading the slide on fresh concerns that artificial intelligence could pressure future earnings. “There is now a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the profitability and margin outlook for Indian IT companies because of AI,” said Saurabh Jain, assistant vice president of retail equities at SMC Global. Business Recorder
That leaves traders eyeing a jittery Monday open, with foreign flows and the rupee still steering the action. The rupee wrapped up Friday at 90.9750 per U.S. dollar, logging its first monthly advance since April 2025. Foreign investors snapped up more than $2.5 billion in local shares on a net basis last month, according to Reuters.
After the cash close on Friday, investors got hit with a fresh set of macro numbers. The statistics ministry rolled out GDP estimates based on a new base year, showing real growth at 7.6% for 2025/26. For the October-December period, the rebased series put growth at 7.8%—marking the first quarterly figure under this update.
Private consumption jumped 8.7% year-on-year for the quarter, Reuters said, even as both government spending and private investment lost some steam—a combination that’s fueling ongoing policy debate. “Service sector performance signals a strong lift,” according to DBS economist Radhika Rao. ICRA’s chief economist, Aditi Nayar, expects the central bank to leave rates unchanged. Reuters
Risk-off remains the default on the trading desk. Foreign institutional investors offloaded roughly 3,466 crore rupees’ worth of shares Thursday, NSE data showed, as reported by The Economic Times. Vinod Nair, Geojit Investments’ research head, flagged the “narrow range” in which markets could stay, pointing to persistent geopolitical risk. The Economic Times
Global signals failed to offer support. Wall Street wrapped up February in the red—tech stocks took a hit as AI concerns, uncertainty around tariffs, and geopolitical worries weighed on sentiment. Investors also eased off expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts.
This week, eyes are on India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI coming Monday. That’s the factory sector check. Services PMI lands March 3. After that, focus moves to the U.S. payrolls report due March 6. Next up: the Fed’s policy decision, slated for March 17-18.
Friday’s drop could easily get worse—energy jumping on a geopolitical shock, or a renewed wave of foreign selling, would only feed the slide. A sharper tech retreat would hit the major indexes hard, thanks to the sector’s heft.
Come Monday, traders will be watching to see if the Nifty hangs on around 25,000 and manages to reclaim 25,200. Otherwise, the market could remain hunkered down, as participants digest the GDP reset alongside new PMI data.
