Nike (NKE) Stock on December 1, 2025: Ex‑Dividend Drop, Wall Street Targets, and 2026 Outlook

Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) entered December 2025 at a critical crossroads: the stock is trading ex‑dividend, remains far below its all‑time highs, yet still carries one of the strongest brands in global sport and a broadly bullish Wall Street consensus.

As of the afternoon of December 1, 2025, Nike shares trade around $65–66, up roughly 1–2% on the day, with an intraday range near $63.6–$66.0. ^[1] Over the last 12 months the stock is down about 16–17%, and over five years it has lost more than half its value, even as the broader market marched higher. ^[2]

Yet analysts still see upside: the average 12‑month price target clusters in the low‑to‑mid $80s, implying roughly 25–30% potential appreciation from current levels. ^[3]

Below is a deep dive into what changed on December 1, 2025, the latest earnings and guidance, institutional moves, analyst forecasts, and what all of this could mean for Nike stock heading into 2026.

1. Nike stock today: price action and long‑term performance

• Latest price (Dec 1, 2025): about $65.7 per share, with an opening price near $63.8 and a daily range around $63.6–$66.0. ^[4]
• Market cap: roughly $95–96 billion. ^[5]
• Valuation: trailing P/E around 33x based on annual EPS of $2.16. ^[6]
• 52‑week range: approximately $52.28–$82.44. ^[7]
• Performance:
  • 1‑month: roughly +1–2%
  • 3‑month: about ‑15%
  • Year‑to‑date 2025: around ‑13%
  • 1‑year: about ‑16–17%
  • 5‑year: down ~50% from late 2020 levels. ^[8]

For many long‑term holders, Nike has been painful: from December 1, 2020 to December 1, 2025, the stock’s total return is roughly ‑49%. ^[9] That underperformance explains why even modest rallies now attract close scrutiny.

2. What changed on December 1, 2025: ex‑dividend and institutional cross‑currents

2.1 Ex‑dividend mechanics drove a technical price drop

December 1, 2025 is Nike’s ex‑dividend date for its newly increased quarterly payout of $0.41 per share, payable on January 2, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 1. ^[10]

Because the stock now trades without the right to that upcoming dividend, the price is automatically adjusted down by the dividend amount at the open. A German‑language piece summarizing today’s action described the move as a “purely technical adjustment”, noting that the $0.41 cut reflects the detached dividend rather than a change in Nike’s fundamentals. ^[11]

Despite that mechanical drop, intraday trading pulled the stock higher, leaving Nike modestly up on the day after adjusting for the dividend.

2.2 Income case strengthened: yield around 2.5%

At current prices, the new dividend annualizes to $1.64 per share, implying a yield of roughly 2.5%—well above the ~1% typical for many consumer discretionary names. ^[12]

Importantly, this $0.41 quarterly dividend marks the 24th consecutive year that Nike has raised its payout, extending its track record as a steadily growing dividend payer. ^[13] That streak is why some analysts now talk about Nike as a potential future Dividend Aristocrat, even though it is not yet part of that index. ^[14]

2.3 Big money disagrees: hedge funds buyers vs. sellers

December 1 also brought a wave of fresh 13F‑based institutional ownership headlines, underscoring how divided professional investors are on NKE:

• Large sellers
  • Icon Advisers cut its stake by about 50%, selling 19,250 shares and ending Q2 with 19,470 shares worth roughly $1.38 million. ^[15]
  • Boston Family Office trimmed its position by 3% to 130,387 shares (~$9.26 million). ^[16]
• Aggressive buyers
  • OMERS Administration Corp, the Canadian pension giant, increased its Nike position by a staggering 6,482%, adding around 2.94 million shares to reach 2.98 million shares worth about $212 million—making Nike roughly 1.7% of its portfolio and its 14th‑largest holding. ^[17]
  • Solidarity Wealth LLC boosted its holdings by 16.2% to 94,792 shares (~$6.77 million). ^[18]

The same institutions also highlighted that Nike beat expectations in its latest quarter—reporting EPS of $0.49 vs. $0.27 estimated and revenue of $11.72 billion vs. $10.96 billion expected—and raised the dividend to $0.41. ^[19]

In other words, some funds are taking profits or cutting exposure, while others are leaning in heavily on the turnaround story.

3. Fundamentals under pressure: what Nike’s recent results show

3.1 Fiscal 2025: revenue and profit step backwards

Nike’s fiscal 2025 (year ended May 31, 2025) was tough: ^[20]

• Full‑year revenue:$46.3 billion, down 10% year‑over‑year.
• NIKE Brand revenue:$44.7 billion, down 9%, with declines across all geographies.
• Nike Direct revenue:$18.8 billion, down 13%, including a 20% drop in digital; physical stores were flat.
• Wholesale revenue:$25.9 billion, down 7%.
• Converse: revenue fell 19%, hit by weakness across territories.
• Gross margin:42.7%, down 190 bps, pressured by discounting, mix shifts and inventory write‑downs.
• Net income:$3.2 billion, down 44%, with EPS down 42% to $2.16.

This reset was partly deliberate: Nike’s new CEO Elliott Hill has been pushing “Win Now” actions—clearing excess inventory, re‑focusing around core sports and rationalizing product lines—even at the cost of near‑term margins and growth. ^[21]

3.2 Q1 FY2026: a better‑than‑expected quarter, but not a full turnaround

The most recent reported quarter, Q1 FY2026 (ended August 31, 2025), gave bulls some ammunition: ^[22]

• Revenue:$11.72 billion, up about 1% year‑over‑year and ahead of expectations (consensus had anticipated a decline).
• EPS:$0.49, beating estimates by a wide margin but down about 30% from $0.70 a year earlier.
• Mix shift:
  • Wholesale grew around 5%, as Nike re‑embraced key retail partners.
  • Nike Direct sales fell roughly 5%, with digital down double‑digits, continuing a trend of weaker online momentum.
• Regional performance:
  • North America & EMEA showed growth.
  • Greater China revenue declined around 10%, marking a fifth consecutive quarter of contraction, and now accounts for roughly 15% of revenue.

On the guidance side, management stayed cautious:

• Q2 FY2026 revenue is expected to decline low‑single digits.
• Gross margin is forecast to fall another 300–375 bps, pressured by tariffs and promotional activity. ^[23]
• Nike does not expect its direct‑to‑consumer business to return to growth until fiscal 2026, with North America leading the eventual rebound. ^[24]

A Reuters piece summed up the quarter as early evidence that Hill’s turnaround is taking root—thanks to renewed focus on running, wholesale partners, and inventory cleanup—but also emphasised that the recovery remains incomplete, especially with tariffs weighing on margins and China still weak. ^[25]

3.3 Credit perspective: Moody’s downgrade highlights risks

On November 13, 2025, Moody’s Ratings downgraded Nike’s senior unsecured debt by one notch, citing: ^[26]

• Tariff pressures, expected to add about $1.5 billion in costs this fiscal year.
• A 10% revenue decline and ~42% drop in EBIT in fiscal 2025.
• Higher leverage and slower expected margin recovery.

The outlook was moved from negative to stable, signalling that while Nike remains an investment‑grade credit, rating agencies see a slower, more fragile rebound than in prior cycles.

4. Dividend story: a growing income stream amid volatility

Nike’s new $0.41 quarterly dividend fits into a multi‑year capital‑return program:

• 24 consecutive years of dividend increases as of the November 20, 2025 announcement. ^[27]
• Fiscal 2025 shareholder returns:
  • $2.3 billion in dividends, up 6% year‑over‑year.
  • $3.0 billion in share repurchases, for a total of $5.3 billion returned to shareholders. ^[28]

Third‑party dividend analysis notes that the board’s willingness to raise the payout despite profit pressure reflects confidence in Nike’s cash generation, but also warns that the move doesn’t magically fix the core problem of slower growth and margin compression. ^[29]

At today’s price and payout, Nike’s ~2.5% yield is increasingly part of the bull case—particularly for investors who believe earnings will normalize and the payout ratio (currently high after the profit drop) will come back down over time. ^[30]

5. Wall Street view: “Moderate Buy” with mid‑$80s price targets

5.1 Consensus rating and base‑case upside

Across major data providers, Nike sits in the “Moderate Buy” to “Buy” range:

• MarketBeat:
  • 36 analysts: 1 Sell, 6 Hold, 26 Buy, 3 Strong Buy.
  • Average 12‑month target: $82.24, implying about 25% upside from recent prices. ^[31]
• StockAnalysis:
  • 25 analysts, consensus “Buy”, average target $83.17, or roughly 26–27% upside. ^[32]
• TipRanks:
  • Average target $85.60, with a high of $120 and low of $68; projected upside about 33%. ^[33]
• Aggregated forecasts (TradingView, GuruFocus):
  • High estimates clustered between $115–$120.
  • Low estimates down in the high‑$30s to high‑$50s, highlighting how divided analysts are on Nike’s trajectory. ^[34]

5.2 High‑conviction bulls

Several houses have gone notably bullish:

• Jefferies
  • Upgraded Nike to Buy earlier in 2025 with a $115 price target, calling for investors to buy the stock aggressively after it hit multi‑year lows. ^[35]
  • Thesis: new leadership under CEO Elliott Hill, a refreshed innovation pipeline (e.g., premium running shoes, fashion collaborations) and a restocking cycle could drive margin and earnings recovery by 2027, with EPS projected around $3.50 vs Street expectations closer to $3.00. ^[36]
• BTIG
  • Initiated coverage with a Buy rating and $100 target, naming Nike a “Top Pick for 2026”. ^[37]
  • Forecasts EPS of $1.70 for FY2026 and $2.75 for FY2027, and believes operating margins can return above 12% over time, versus roughly 6–7% today. ^[38]
• Bank of America & TD Cowen
  • BofA Securities reiterated a Buy with an $84 target, arguing that the post‑earnings pullback is a buying opportunity as innovation ramps and margins gradually improve. ^[39]
  • TD Cowen upgraded Nike from Hold to Buy, raising its target to $85 and pointing to Nike’s brand strength, potential EPS above $4 longer term, and robust free‑cash‑flow generation. ^[40]
• Simply Wall St fair‑value modelling
  • Projects revenue reaching $50.7 billion and earnings $4.4 billion by 2028, implying mid‑single‑digit revenue growth and a meaningful earnings rebound.
  • Their valuation suggests a fair value near the low‑$80s, roughly 30% above current levels, but they emphasise that execution risks remain high. ^[41]

5.3 More cautious voices

Not everyone is convinced the risk/reward is compelling right now:

• A November research piece titled “Progress Amid Tariff Headwinds, But Turnaround Still Needs Time” rated Nike Hold, arguing that while macro tailwinds and internal changes are helping, the recovery will likely be slow, particularly given tariff drag and China weakness. ^[42]
• Another analysis expects Q2 FY2026 revenue to decline ~1% and EPS to drop more than 50% year‑over‑year, underscoring how much earnings power has eroded in the short term. ^[43]
• Credit downgrades from Moody’s (while still investment‑grade) reflect concern over higher leverage, compressed margins, and slower profit growth than in Nike’s past cycles. ^[44]

The net result is a split narrative: Wall Street models suggest Nike is undervalued relative to normalized earnings, but timing the inflection in growth and margins is tricky.

6. The bigger picture: key themes to watch into Nike’s December 18 earnings

Nike has scheduled its Q2 FY2026 earnings release for December 18, 2025, followed by a conference call with management. ^[45] Heading into that catalyst, several themes will likely drive the stock:

1. Tariffs and margin trajectory
   • Tariffs tied to products manufactured in Vietnam and elsewhere are expected to cost around $1.5 billion this fiscal year, a major drag on gross margins. ^[46]
   • Investors will look for signs that pricing, mix and cost savings are starting to offset these headwinds.
2. Direct‑to‑consumer vs. wholesale balance
   • After years of pushing its own digital and store channels, Nike is renewing its embrace of wholesale partners—which boosted recent results but can pressure margins. ^[47]
   • Management’s view is that a “sport offense” approach—stronger storytelling, clearer segmentation by sport, and cleaner assortments—can make both channels work together more efficiently. ^[48]
3. China and emerging‑market demand
   • Persistent declines in Greater China are one of the biggest overhangs. A stabilization—or better, a return to growth—would be a powerful catalyst. ^[49]
4. Product innovation and brand heat
   • Analysts bullish on Nike point to new premium running products, sustainability initiatives (like material agreements with Loop Industries), and high‑profile collaborations as evidence that product “heat” is returning. ^[50]
   • If demand for new lines is strong enough, it could help Nike cut discounting and rebuild gross margin.
5. Balance sheet and capital returns
   • Despite the downgrade, Nike still has a solid balance sheet and continues to return significant cash via dividends and buybacks. ^[51]
   • The question is whether management prioritizes deleveraging and capex over buybacks if macro conditions deteriorate.

7. Is Nike stock a buy after the December 1 ex‑dividend drop?

From an investor’s perspective, here’s how the risk–reward landscape looks as of December 1, 2025:

Bullish arguments

• Iconic global brand with deep moats in performance sports and lifestyle. ^[52]
• Evidence that turnaround efforts are gaining traction: Q1 FY2026 revenue surprised to the upside, wholesale is recovering, and inventories are cleaner than a year ago. ^[53]
• Dividend story improving, with a 24‑year streak of raises and a yield now competitive within the sector. ^[54]
• Wall Street’s average price targets in the low‑to‑mid $80s and some high‑profile targets at $100–$115 imply meaningful upside if Nike executes. ^[55]

Bearish / cautious arguments

• Fundamentals still deteriorated sharply in fiscal 2025, with revenue down ~10% and earnings down more than 40%; early improvements have not fully reversed that damage. ^[56]
• Tariffs, China weakness and digital softness could keep margins depressed longer than bulls expect. ^[57]
• Nike trades at a premium multiple (low‑30s P/E) despite recent earnings pressure and a murky macro backdrop. ^[58]
• Credit agencies are signaling caution, and at least one widely read analysis rates the stock merely Hold, suggesting potential underperformance versus the broader market in the near term. ^[59]

8. Bottom line

On December 1, 2025, Nike stock is ex‑dividend, still well below its highs, but not abandoned by Wall Street:

• The income profile has become more attractive, with a higher, well‑covered dividend and a respectable yield. ^[60]
• Institutional investors are split, with some large funds significantly increasing exposure while others trim positions. ^[61]
• Analysts generally see upside, but with a wide range of outcomes—from cautious “Hold” stances to aggressive $100–$115 price targets. ^[62]

Whether Nike is a buy after today’s ex‑dividend adjustment ultimately depends on your time horizon and risk tolerance:

• Long‑term, brand‑focused investors may view current levels as a chance to own a global icon during a difficult but potentially transitional period.
• Shorter‑term traders and more conservative investors might wait for clearer evidence that margins, China, and digital revenues have bottomed before committing new capital.

Either way, December 18’s Q2 FY2026 earnings and management commentary are likely to be the next major catalyst for NKE.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional.

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