Nikkei 225 Ripped 3% as TOPIX Hit a Record—But Traders Keep Staring at 157

Nikkei 225 Ripped 3% as TOPIX Hit a Record—But Traders Keep Staring at 157

Tokyo — January 5, 2026 — 2:04 a.m. ET

  • Nikkei 225: 51,865.00 (+3.03%), day high 52,050
  • TOPIX: 3,477.52 (+2.01%), day high 3,486.00
  • USD/JPY: 157.295 high  Investing

Nikkei ripped higher.
The Nikkei 225 closed up 3.03% at 51,865 in the Tokyo stock market’s first session of 2026, and TOPIX finished at 3,477.52, up 2.01% after touching 3,486 intraday.  Investing

Risk-on hit Tokyo.
Traders chased chips and exporters as the dollar pushed to 157.295 yen and BOJ chief Kazuo Ueda talked about more rate hikes, while Venezuela headlines barely slowed the bid.  Reuters

Chips did the hauling.
Advantest jumped 6.37% and Tokyo Electron climbed about 6%, tracking a 4% surge in the U.S. semiconductor index on Friday and dragging index points with them.  ABC

Exporters got the tailwind.
The cash Nikkei traded between 51,140 and 52,050 before it settled just under that 52,000 handle, and the weak-yen tape kept buyers leaning forward into the close.  Investing

Rates stayed noisy.
Ueda told Japan’s bankers the BOJ keeps raising interest rates if growth and inflation track its forecasts, and that message turns the yen into the day’s real kill-switch for equities.  Reuters

Data gave cover.
A read on December factory activity showed the slump stabilized after five straight months of deterioration, and macro desks treated it like permission to add Japan exposure fast.  Investing

TOPIX kept flexing breadth.
The broad gauge closed at 3,477.52 and tagged 3,486 at the high, so today’s move spread beyond a handful of Nikkei megacaps.  Investing

Yeah, but risk stays.
A faster BOJ path plus any yen squeeze hits exporters hard, and geopolitics stays live after Washington captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro over the weekend.  Reuters

Derivatives flashed a tell.
CME Nikkei 225 yen futures open interest slid to 92,826 contracts as of Sunday’s close, so positioning looked lighter than the price action in cash.  AP News

Next catalyst: U.S. jobs.
Traders get ISM data early-week and nonfarm payrolls on Friday, then the BOJ’s Jan. 22–23 meeting and outlook report.  Reuters

Stock Market Today

  • Intuitive Surgical valuation near fair value after strong run
    January 6, 2026, 8:55 PM EST. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) appears near its narrative fair value of $596.36, with a last close of $592.85. The gap is small despite a 90-day return of 32.3% and a 5-year TSR of 125.6%. The narrative attributes value to ongoing product innovation-da Vinci 5, integrated force feedback, and AI-driven case insights-that could lift procedure growth, system ASPs, and recurring instrument revenues. Risks include tariff-related margin pressure and tighter hospital budgets in key international markets. The stock's forward P/E at about 76.5x sits well above the Medical Equipment group (≈29.9x) and peers, implying a premium. The question: is that premium justified by the outlook for growth and margins?
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