Sydney, Jan 23, 2026, 16:49 AEDT — Market closed
- Northern Star shares rebounded 5.5% to close at A$27.62, following a sharp 8.4% fall the previous day.
- A December-quarter update revised cost and spending forecasts for FY26, highlighting an increased budget for the KCGM mill expansion.
- Attention turns to execution risks, closer disclosure scrutiny, and the company’s half-year results due Feb. 12.
Northern Star Resources shares bounced back Friday, rising 5.5% to close at A$27.62. This recovery came after a steep 8.4% drop the day before, when the stock hit A$26.18.
The rebound counts as the miner works to calm nerves following a hike in cost guidance and a warning of a bigger price tag for its flagship Kalgoorlie expansion. Gold prices are strong, but investors want to know how much of that boost will be swallowed by rising expenses and execution risks.
Northern Star ranks among the bigger gold players on the ASX, making its cost trajectory a hot topic as gold prices surge to new highs. Traders will be closely watching if Friday’s rebound sticks after the market absorbs the fresh guidance update heading into next week.
In its quarterly update Thursday, the company reported sales of 348,061 ounces during the December quarter, with an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,937 per ounce. (AISC factors in sustaining capital and other ongoing expenses.) It confirmed its FY26 gold sales forecast of 1.6 million to 1.7 million ounces but raised the group AISC guidance to A$2,600-A$2,800. The FY26 budget for the KCGM mill expansion was also increased, now pegged at A$640-A$660 million.
Northern Star attributed the rising cost outlook primarily to weaker gold sales and increased royalties tied to higher gold prices, pushing costs up roughly A$40 an ounce beyond its original forecast. The company also confirmed sustaining capital targets around A$750 million.
The company is framing its growth spend as a structural reset, aiming for the KCGM mill expansion to hit 27 million tonnes annually by FY27. Alongside this, it’s investing in “operational readiness” aspects like power, tailings, and accommodation. The market remains divided—some see it as a bet on long-term capacity, others worry about short-term disruptions.
Managing director Stuart Tonkin said progress on the group’s main growth projects is set to “reshape” the cost structure. He also confirmed the KCGM mill expansion is still on track for commissioning in early FY27. “The December quarter delivered positive advances at our two key growth projects,” Tonkin added. Mining Weekly
Northern Star’s jump happened amid a widespread rally among ASX gold miners. Evolution Mining rebounded 5.3%, and Regis Resources surged 10.2%, bouncing back after declines the previous day.
The macro backdrop has been a key driver. Goldman Sachs bumped up its end-2026 gold forecast once more, citing rising ETF demand alongside central-bank purchases. The yellow metal is eyeing the US$5,000 mark.
The company still faces execution risk. The Australian Securities Exchange issued a “please explain” notice over continuous disclosure. Jarden’s Ben Lyons took aim at the firm’s streak of guidance revisions, noting: “It is not often you see a $35bn company get a please explain from the ASX about their continuous disclosure obligations.” The Australian
The downside is clear: another production miss, an added cost increase, or rising project expenses could quickly undo Friday’s relief rally. A fall in gold prices would only complicate things further, since the market is already relying on bullion to support those higher cost estimates.
Next on the calendar: the company’s FY26 half-year results, due Feb. 12. Investors will zero in on updates about KCGM delivery, cost management, and whether there’s any shift in guidance.
