Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX:NST) is heading into the final stretch of 2025 with a very specific kind of “problem” investors don’t hate: the gold price is making history, and gold equities are getting dragged into the spotlight with it.
But on Friday, 26 December 2025 (Boxing Day), there’s a catch for anyone trying to trade the move: the ASX cash market is closed, with no trading and no settlement. [1]
That means the most recent actionable datapoint for NST shareholders is the last session before the holiday break, when Northern Star ended 24 December 2025 at A$27.01. [2]
Meanwhile, offshore markets did what offshore markets do: they kept moving. Spot gold pushed to fresh all‑time highs early on 26 December, briefly printing above US$4,530/oz before easing back. [3]
So what does this cocktail of “market closed / gold flying / analysts issuing targets” mean for Northern Star Resources stock heading into the first trading days of 2026? Here’s a detailed roundup of the most recent news, forecasts, and analysis available as of 26.12.2025, and the next catalysts that could matter for ASX:NST.
Northern Star share price: where NST closed before the Boxing Day shutdown
Because the ASX is shut on 26 December, Northern Star’s “latest price” for Australian investors is still the 24 December close (A$27.01). [4]
The late‑December tape shows why the stock stayed on traders’ radar even before gold’s newest record:
- On 22 December 2025, Northern Star jumped hard in a broad materials-led session, with one market report citing NST up 4.07% to A$26.87 amid strength across miners. [5]
- By 24 December 2025, the stock finished at A$27.01 (Market Index shows the day’s open/high/low and volume around that close). [6]
If you’re trying to interpret price action “today” (26 Dec): it’s not that nothing is happening—it’s that price discovery is happening elsewhere (gold, FX, US-listed proxies), and ASX stocks will re-price when the market reopens.
The macro driver: gold just printed another all-time high on 26 December
On 26 December, Reuters reported spot gold at ~US$4,501/oz, after touching a record US$4,530.60 earlier in the session. The drivers cited were safe-haven demand and expectations of further Fed rate cuts. [7]
For gold miners like Northern Star, that’s the obvious tailwind—with a big asterisk: miners don’t get the gold price “for free.” Costs, capex, currency moves, royalties, and hedging all decide how much of that gold-price sugar rush actually lands in shareholder returns.
Still, the link between record metals prices and Australian gold equities has been visible in late December:
- ABC noted that Australia’s gold mining stocks were reacting to record bullion prices, and cited large gold miners including Northern Star gaining as much as ~1.5% in that Christmas Eve window. [8]
In other words: the macro backdrop isn’t subtle. It’s wearing a neon sign.
The fundamentals anchor: Northern Star’s FY26 guidance and what it implies for the next leg
To understand NST stock beyond “gold up → miners up,” you need the company’s own operating roadmap.
In Northern Star’s September 2025 Quarterly Activities Report (released 23 October 2025), the company reported:
- Gold sold:381,055 oz in the September quarter
- All-in sustaining cost (AISC):A$2,522/oz
- A breakdown across production centres (Kalgoorlie, Yandal, Pogo) [9]
More importantly for a forward-looking stock article, the same report contains FY26 guidance:
- Group gold sold:1,700–1,850 koz
- Group AISC:A$2,300–2,700/oz
- Centre-level guidance (including Kalgoorlie, Yandal, and Pogo ranges) [10]
And it’s not just ounces—it’s the investment cycle. Northern Star’s FY26 outlook includes substantial growth capital items, including continued investment tied to KCGM’s expansion pathway. [11]
Why this matters for NST stock right now
Gold at record highs can make even a messy cost year look pretty. But investors are still going to judge Northern Star on:
- Delivery vs guidance (ounces and costs)
- Execution risk (big projects, schedules, commissioning, and knock-on operational disruption)
- Capital intensity vs returns (how much spending is required for the next production step-change)
Northern Star itself flagged that the September quarter was expected to be the softest under FY26 planning assumptions due to planned shutdowns across production centres, with later quarters expected to strengthen. [12]
That “shape of year” framing becomes critical when investors are hypersensitive to any single quarter that looks weak in isolation.
Fresh company news in December: exploration update puts Kalgoorlie, Pogo, and Hemi back in focus
The most significant Northern Star company release in December (and one that feeds directly into longer-term valuation narratives) is the ASX Announcement: Exploration Update (5 December 2025). [13]
In the release, Managing Director Stuart Tonkin framed the update as evidence of “strong organic growth potential,” with emphasis on balancing resource definition, conversion, and “low‑cost Resource ounces.” [14]
Key themes highlighted include:
- Kalgoorlie / KCGM: drilling and investment aimed at building future ore options for the expanded Fimiston mill from FY27; and exploration identifying mineralisation up to ~800m below the existing Fimiston open pit Mineral Resource. [15]
- Pogo (Alaska): new drill drives enabling extensional drilling and near-mine opportunities; the release lists multiple high-grade intercepts in the Pogo system. [16]
- Hemi Development Project: Northern Star said integration of the “recent strategic acquisition” is underway, with approvals progressing toward what it describes as becoming a fourth production centre. [17]
Why does an exploration update matter to a stock that already has record-gold momentum? Because in a regime where the market is rewarding “real” ounces (long life, scalable, financeable), exploration and development credibility can change how investors handicap:
- mine life confidence
- reserve conversion pace
- the value of optionality into FY27–FY30
- whether “growth capex” is a bridge to cash-flow expansion or a treadmill
Another December catalyst: the 25-year Zenith Energy power deal tied to KCGM
A genuinely market-relevant piece of December news isn’t just about rocks—it’s about electrons.
Multiple industry reports stated that Zenith Energy signed a landmark 25‑year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Northern Star Resources supporting a major renewable-heavy supply build for the Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM). [18]
Reported project components include:
- 256MW wind
- 138MW solar PV
- 138MW / 300MWh battery energy storage system (BESS) [19]
PV Magazine Australia also reported that the broader package includes thermal generation and transmission infrastructure elements structured through a long-term deal (and related arrangements), which matters because large mines typically need dispatchable power alongside renewables. [20]
Why the market cares
Power is one of the sneaky-big drivers of mining economics, especially in an inflationary cost environment. Investors will likely watch for how this kind of arrangement affects:
- medium-term operating cost stability
- reliability as KCGM expands
- emissions pathway and permitting “smoothness”
- capex burden allocation (what Northern Star pays vs what the power provider builds/owns)
This isn’t a guarantee of lower costs tomorrow morning. It’s a multi-year execution and approvals story—but it’s the kind that can influence how analysts model the cost curve and risk premium.
Analyst forecasts on 26.12.2025: consensus targets cluster above the last close, but the range is wide
With the ASX closed on 26 December, the most “current” market debate shifts to published analyst expectations.
Street consensus snapshot
MarketScreener’s consensus page for Northern Star shows:
- Mean consensus: OUTPERFORM
- Number of analysts: 16
- Last close price:A$27.01
- Average target price:A$28.92 (about +7% above last close)
- High target:A$35.15
- Low target:A$13.70 [21]
That spread matters. It’s basically the market admitting: “We agree gold is strong; we disagree about how much of it belongs to NST shareholders after costs, capex, and execution risk.”
Investing.com’s consensus page similarly cites an average target around 28.9 and summarizes the analyst split as a consensus “Buy” (with buy/hold/sell breakdown). [22]
UBS: one of the clearest “as-of 26 Dec” datapoints
UBS’ disclosures page (generated on 26-Dec-2025) shows a UBS Buy rating with a price target of A$29.75 (with the most recent table entry dated 20 Nov 2025). [23]
This is useful not because UBS is magically right, but because it’s a concrete reference point for where a major broker sits heading into year-end.
Morningstar: fair value lifted earlier, reflecting stronger gold
Morningstar’s quote page shows NST at A$27.01 (Dec 24, 2025) and notes it raised its fair value estimate by 5% on stronger gold prices (fair value date shown as Oct 3, 2025 on the snippet). [24]
One caution flag: technical and “sentiment” models are mixed
Not all analysis is fundamental. A number of traders look at technical signals—especially into thin holiday liquidity, when price can jumpy‑walk like a caffeinated crab.
One technical-model site described mixed signals for NST in December, including mention of a pivot-top sell signal and a MACD sell signal, while also noting the stock still held buy signals from moving averages. [25]
Take these as temperature checks, not truths carved into granite tablets. Technical signals don’t know anything about ore grades, capex schedules, or whether the gold price is about to whipsaw.
What to watch next for Northern Star stock: January and February are the real scoreboard
Northern Star’s own investor calendar lists the next major events as:
- December 2025 Quarterly Results:Thursday, 22 January 2026
- FY26 Half Year Results:Thursday, 12 February 2026 [26]
These two dates are likely to set the tone for NST in early 2026, because they should provide updated clarity on:
- progress toward FY26 production and AISC guidance [27]
- how much of the record-gold environment is dropping through to margins
- progress and risk framing around major capital projects (including KCGM-related items and development spending) [28]
- any incremental detail investors can glean around the Hemi pathway after the December exploration update [29]
Bottom line on 26.12.2025: NST is set up for a “re-price” moment when the ASX reopens
As of 26 December 2025, Northern Star Resources stock is sitting at an intersection investors love and fear at the same time:
- Gold is ripping to record highs, which improves the revenue backdrop for gold producers. [30]
- NST has clear FY26 guidance, but it’s also in a heavy execution phase with significant capex and multi-asset complexity. [31]
- Analyst consensus leans positive (average targets above the last close), but the dispersion between bullish and bearish targets is wide—signalling real disagreement about valuation and risk. [32]
- December company updates (exploration + the KCGM power agreement coverage) reinforce the longer-term “scale and longevity” narrative—exactly the story the market tends to reward when bullion prices are high. [33]
With the ASX closed for Boxing Day, the immediate question isn’t “what did NST do today?” It’s: how much of the late‑December surge in gold—and the broader year-end risk appetite—will be priced into NST when Australian trading resumes? [34]
References
1. www.asx.com.au, 2. www.marketindex.com.au, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.asx.com.au, 5. www.news.com.au, 6. www.marketindex.com.au, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.abc.net.au, 9. www.nsrltd.com, 10. www.nsrltd.com, 11. www.nsrltd.com, 12. www.nsrltd.com, 13. www.nsrltd.com, 14. www.nsrltd.com, 15. www.nsrltd.com, 16. www.nsrltd.com, 17. www.nsrltd.com, 18. zenithenergy.com.au, 19. www.energy-storage.news, 20. www.pv-magazine-australia.com, 21. www.marketscreener.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. research.ibb.ubs.com, 24. www.morningstar.com, 25. stockinvest.us, 26. www.nsrltd.com, 27. www.nsrltd.com, 28. www.nsrltd.com, 29. www.nsrltd.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.nsrltd.com, 32. www.marketscreener.com, 33. www.nsrltd.com, 34. www.asx.com.au
