Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) is back in the spotlight as the gold market closes out 2025 in full “melt-up” mode. On 22 December 2025, spot gold hit a fresh all-time high amid expectations of further US rate cuts and persistent safe-haven demand—conditions that typically put leveraged gold producers like Northern Star on investors’ radar. [1]
Below is a comprehensive, publication-ready rundown of what’s moving Northern Star stock right now, the most recent company updates, and how the market’s forecasts (both for gold and for NST itself) are shaping sentiment as of 22.12.2025.
Northern Star share price action on 22 December 2025
Northern Star shares finished 22 December 2025 at A$26.765, up +3.66% on the session, after opening at A$26.200 and trading between A$25.810 and A$26.810 (Investing.com delayed data). [2]
Recent trading has been choppy even by gold-miner standards. The same Investing.com table shows a sharp drop on 19 December (A$25.820, -3.37%) on unusually high volume versus other December sessions, followed by a rebound into the 22nd. [3]
The key point for readers: Northern Star’s share price in late December is moving in a tug-of-war between (1) a surging gold price backdrop and (2) stock-specific catalysts like capital projects, exploration spend, and execution confidence.
The macro driver: gold just printed another record (and the forecasts are getting wild)
On 22 December 2025, Reuters reported spot gold reaching a record US$4,391.92/oz, with bullion up 67% in 2025—the strongest annual gain since 1979—supported by expectations of lower rates, central-bank buying, a softer dollar, and geopolitical/trade tension. [4]
That matters for Northern Star because higher gold prices can expand operating margins—especially when the gold move outpaces cost inflation—while also reshaping how investors value future ounces from exploration and development projects.
Looking forward, major bank projections remain bullish, even if they differ on the pace:
- Morgan Stanley flagged potentially “slower gains” but still sees US$4,800/oz by Q4 2026, citing rate cuts and a weaker dollar among supportive factors. [5]
- Goldman Sachs set a base-case target of US$4,900/oz by December 2026, pointing to structurally strong central bank demand and cyclical support from Fed cuts. [6]
- A separate Reuters roundup noted some forecasters (including major institutions) discussing scenarios where gold could reach US$5,000 in 2026, while also warning about correction risk after a historic run. [7]
For NST shareholders, this is the core sensitivity: gold price direction + AUD/USD + Northern Star’s cost and capital discipline.
What Northern Star actually is: three production centres, plus the Hemi growth engine
Northern Star describes itself as one of the world’s leading gold producers, operating three production centres—Kalgoorlie, Yandal, and Pogo (Alaska)—with a development project footprint that includes Pilbara (Hemi). [8]
That mix matters because it spreads operational risk (multiple assets) while giving investors a clearer “pipeline”: mature production plus a large development project that can change the company’s growth profile if delivered on time and on budget.
On the company’s Hemi project page, Northern Star lists Mineral Resources of 11,174 koz for the Hemi Development Project (company disclosure on the project page). [9]
The biggest company update this month: A$225 million exploration plan and a drumbeat of drill results
Northern Star’s 5 December 2025 Exploration Update is a major near-term reference point for investors because it signals both commitment and optionality: the company kept its FY26 exploration spend forecast at A$225 million and highlighted multiple high-grade and scale-oriented targets across its portfolio. [10]
Where the exploration money is going
In the same update, Northern Star shows exploration spend heavily weighted to “in-mine growth” and to its largest operating hub:
- 73% in-mine growth vs 27% regional exploration
- Spend split across the portfolio: 42% Kalgoorlie, 25% Yandal, 25% Pogo, 8% Pilbara [11]
Why the drill highlights matter
Exploration headlines don’t always move a large-cap producer—but they can when they increase confidence in mine life extensions or unlock high-margin feed for expanded infrastructure.
Two examples from the update:
- At Pogo, the company highlighted exceptional grades at the Star prospect, including results such as 9.2m @ 33.1 g/t and 5.1m @ 33.9 g/t in recent drilling (as presented in the release). [12]
- At Hemi, drilling between the Diucon and Crow deposits returned high-grade intercepts including 2.2m @ 37.5 g/t and 3.6m @ 19.4 g/t, alongside broader lower-grade zones—signalling continued mineralisation and growth potential beyond the current model edges. [13]
The update also states Northern Star plans to include Hemi Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves in the Group’s Annual Statement to be released in May 2026, with technical reviews underway. [14]
In short: the company is paying to keep its “organic growth machine” running, and it’s explicitly linking that work to future production-centre expansion.
FY26 operational outlook: production guidance, cost guidance, and the capital intensity question
Northern Star’s September 2025 Quarterly Report (released 23 October 2025) provides the most concrete company-issued guidance investors are using right now.
Key reported figures for the September 2025 quarter include 381 koz gold sold at AISC of A$2,522/oz (and the report breaks out production by centre). [15]
For FY26 guidance, Northern Star outlined:
- Gold sold:1,700–1,850 koz
- Group AISC:A$2,300–2,700/oz
- Exploration guidance: ~A$225 million
- Growth capital also remains substantial, including allocations for the KCGM mill expansion and the Hemi Development Project. [16]
This is where NST’s investment debate gets interesting: in a ripping gold tape, the market often rewards growth and optionality—but it still punishes cost blowouts, schedule slips, and “capex surprise.”
The other major narrative: Northern Star’s 25-year renewable power deal for KCGM
Energy reliability (and power cost) has become a very real issue in the Kalgoorlie region. Against that backdrop, Northern Star and Zenith Energy have been progressing a long-term renewable-plus-storage solution for KCGM.
What’s been announced
A Reuters item carried by TradingView reported that Northern Star applied for environmental approval for a 366MW/330MWh Kalgoorlie regional renewable energy project (wind + solar + battery storage), underpinned by a 25-year power purchase agreement (PPA) with Zenith Energy. Reuters also noted a joint venture structure including 120MW thermal generation and a transmission network under separate long-term arrangements. [17]
Zenith’s own announcement described a project comprising 256MW wind, 138MW solar, and a 138MW/300MWh battery energy storage system, with Zenith funding, building, owning, and operating the assets under the PPA. [18]
Independent renewables coverage similarly framed it as a major mining-focused hybrid renewables build, and reported expectations that the project could supply roughly ~70% of KCGM electricity demand once fully operational (subject to approvals). [19]
Why investors care
For NST stock, this isn’t just an ESG headline. If executed well, long-duration PPAs and on-site generation can reduce exposure to grid instability and smooth power-cost volatility—both of which flow directly into all-in sustaining costs over time.
ABC reporting on Kalgoorlie’s power constraints also noted Northern Star’s plan for a large-scale renewable build (including up to 32 wind turbines) alongside rising power demand linked to major site development, reinforcing why the company is pushing this pathway. [20]
Analyst forecasts for Northern Star stock: “Buy” consensus, modest upside on average, wide disagreement underneath
Analyst views on Northern Star remain broadly constructive, but not uniform.
Investing.com consensus
Investing.com shows an overall consensus rating of “Buy”, with a breakdown of 11 Buy, 3 Hold, 2 Sell (data based on a poll of the past 3 months). It lists an average 12‑month price target of A$28.919, implying about +8% upside versus the reference price shown on the page at the time. [21]
The same page also shows the dispersion: a high estimate of A$35.15 and a low estimate of A$13.7, which is a reminder that analysts are making very different assumptions about the durability of high gold prices, the cost curve, and project execution. [22]
Fintel snapshot
Fintel’s summary similarly places the average one-year price target around A$29.17, with forecasts ranging from A$18.18 to A$36.91 (record date shown as 2025‑12‑05 on that page). [23]
What’s driving the spread?
The disagreement generally comes down to a few variables:
- Gold price path (spot staying elevated vs reverting) [24]
- Cost performance vs inflation and energy constraints
- Capital delivery risk (KCGM expansion, Hemi development, and associated infrastructure) [25]
- Exploration conversion: turning drill success into mineable reserves and profitable ounces over a realistic time frame [26]
What’s “current” in the news cycle on 22.12.2025: the headlines investors are reading
As of today (22 December 2025), the Northern Star narrative is being shaped by a handful of recurring themes:
- Gold’s record high and the market’s debate over how much of the move is macro (rates/dollar) vs structural (central banks, reserve diversification). [27]
- “Watch list” market commentary that flags gold stocks—Northern Star included—as potential beneficiaries of the rising gold price into year-end trading. [28]
- Professional/investor community analysis leaning into the question of whether gold can reach US$5,000 in 2026, and what that could mean for Australian producers (Livewire notes NST was recently featured in that context). [29]
- Company execution stories: exploration cadence, Hemi integration work, and energy strategy for KCGM. [30]
The next catalysts for Northern Star (calendar matters)
Northern Star’s investor calendar is clearly signposted, and it’s likely to drive the next “information resets” for the stock:
- December 2025 Quarterly Results:Thursday, 22 January 2026
- FY26 Half Year Results:Thursday, 12 February 2026 [31]
In practical terms, these events are where the market will re-check:
- delivery versus FY26 production and cost guidance [32]
- update on major capital works (KCGM expansion and readiness spend) [33]
- any refinements to Hemi development timeline/capital assumptions
- and whether the company is translating record gold prices into free cash flow after growth spend.
Risks investors are weighing right now
Even with gold at record highs, Northern Star is not a “one-way trade.” The market’s main risk buckets include:
Gold can fall faster than costs can adjust. Reuters itself noted year-end positioning risk and the possibility of profit-taking after a historic run. [34]
Project and approval complexity is real. The Kalgoorlie renewables plan is large and still subject to environmental and regulatory approvals, with commissioning timelines that extend to mid‑2027 in public reporting. [35]
Capital intensity can overwhelm headline margins. Northern Star’s own guidance shows substantial growth capital across the group alongside exploration spend. [36]
And finally, there’s always “market structure” noise—large holders, index changes, and liquidity events—that can produce sharp short-term moves independent of fundamentals.
Bottom line for Northern Star Resources stock on 22 December 2025
Northern Star (ASX: NST) is entering 2026 with a rare combination of ingredients:
- a gold price backdrop printing new records and attracting mainstream capital [37]
- a sizeable, explicitly funded exploration pipeline with portfolio-wide targets [38]
- a large development asset (Hemi) moving through integration and technical review [39]
- and an ambitious long-term energy strategy for Kalgoorlie that could reshape cost and reliability dynamics over time [40]
At the same time, the stock remains highly sensitive to the gold price, capital execution, and any signs that costs are outrunning the commodity tailwind.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.nsrltd.com, 9. www.nsrltd.com, 10. www.nsrltd.com, 11. www.nsrltd.com, 12. www.nsrltd.com, 13. www.nsrltd.com, 14. www.nsrltd.com, 15. www.nsrltd.com, 16. www.nsrltd.com, 17. www.tradingview.com, 18. zenithenergy.com.au, 19. www.energy-storage.news, 20. www.abc.net.au, 21. www.investing.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. fintel.io, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.nsrltd.com, 26. www.nsrltd.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.fool.com.au, 29. www.livewiremarkets.com, 30. www.nsrltd.com, 31. www.nsrltd.com, 32. www.nsrltd.com, 33. www.nsrltd.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.tradingview.com, 36. www.nsrltd.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.nsrltd.com, 39. www.nsrltd.com, 40. www.tradingview.com
