Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE: NOC) remains one of the pivotal U.S. defense primes, and as of December 7, 2025, its share price and analyst sentiment reflect a tug‑of‑war between strong long‑term fundamentals and growing short‑term caution.
Northrop Grumman stock today: price, range and recent trend
Northrop Grumman closed on December 5, 2025 at $548.97 per share, down roughly 0.7% on the day. [1] Over the last 12 months, the stock is up about 15–16%, trading in a 52‑week range of roughly $426 to $641, with average daily volume around 785,000 shares. [2]
Despite respectable one‑year returns, recent trading has been softer. Short articles and quant screens note that NOC has drifted lower over the past month, even as its long‑term track record remains solid. [3]
Technical models are increasingly cautious:
- Intellectia’s AI‑driven technical dashboard says moving average trends lean bearish, with three negative and one positive MA signal and the 20‑day average sitting below the 60‑day. [4]
- The same service flags 2 buy vs. 3 sell signals, describing NOC as in a falling, consolidating trend and calling it a “Strong Sell candidate” for the next few days or weeks, despite neutral mid‑term readings. [5]
- StockTradersDaily likewise highlights “weak near‑term sentiment” and “elevated downside risk,” even though its long‑term signal remains strong. [6]
In short: fundamentally, Northrop Grumman still looks like a durable defense compounder, but the tape is choppy and near‑term price signals are not especially friendly.
Earnings, guidance and dividends: fundamentals still robust
On the fundamentals side, Northrop Grumman continues to show healthy profitability and steady growth.
Recent earnings and guidance
- Recent quarterly results showed earnings per share around $7.67 and revenue growth of about 4.3% year‑over‑year, with return on equity near 25.5% and net margin just under 10%. [7]
- Management has set FY 2025 EPS guidance in a range of approximately $25.65–$26.05 per share, while Wall Street consensus is a bit higher at around $28.05 EPS for the current fiscal year. [8]
- On the top line, analysts on Seeking Alpha project about $41.9 billion of revenue in 2025, with estimates clustered narrowly between $41.75–$42.05 billion, underscoring expectations for mid‑single‑digit growth rather than explosive expansion. [9]
Using the current share price near $549 and these earnings estimates, NOC trades at roughly 20× forward earnings, broadly consistent with third‑party estimates that peg its forward P/E in the high‑teens to low‑20s. [10]
Dividend profile
Northrop Grumman also remains a solid dividend payer:
- In November 2025, the board declared a quarterly dividend of $2.31 per share. [11]
- Annualised, that’s $9.24 per share, which works out to a forward dividend yield of around 1.7% at current prices.
- MarketBeat’s summary notes a dividend payout ratio in the low‑30% range, suggesting the distribution is well‑covered yet still leaves room for reinvestment. [12]
For income‑minded investors, NOC doesn’t offer a high yield, but it does provide a reliable, growing dividend stream aligned with the company’s long‑term defense backlog.
Fresh contracts and industrial momentum: XM1211 and long‑term munitions deals
Contract wins in late 2025 have reinforced Northrop Grumman’s long‑cycle revenue visibility, especially in munitions and propulsion.
$200 million XM1211 proximity‑fuzed ammunition contract
On December 4, 2025, Northrop secured a U.S. Army contract worth more than $200 million for XM1211 High Explosive Proximity (HEP) medium‑caliber ammunition rounds. [13]
This award:
- Extends Northrop’s role as a key supplier of advanced medium‑caliber ammunition.
- Ties directly into its recent expansion of next‑generation munitions manufacturing capacity. [14]
Simply Wall St points out that the XM1211 award is part of a broader wave of long‑term U.S. defense contracts exceeding $300 million, including an SiAW (Stand‑in Attack Weapon) support deal running to 2034 and heavy investments in solid rocket motor production exceeding $1 billion. [15]
These deals help:
- Lock in multi‑year revenue,
- Justify Northrop’s large capital spending on munitions and propulsion, and
- Increase the stakes around execution and cost control on fixed‑price contracts, where overruns can erode margins.
Strategic programs: B‑21 Raider and Project Talon
Beyond munitions, NOC’s long‑term narrative still revolves around next‑generation platforms that could define U.S. air power for decades.
B‑21 Raider: cornerstone bomber program
Northrop’s B‑21 Raider stealth bomber is widely described by the company as “the future of long‑range strike” and the world’s first sixth‑generation aircraft to take to the skies, designed to penetrate advanced air defenses and deliver precision strikes globally. [16]
Key recent developments:
- In October 2025, CEO Kathy Warden said Northrop expects additional B‑21 contracts from the U.S. Air Force by the end of the year, and is working on a potential agreement to accelerate production. [17]
- Analysts and narrative‑driven research highlight B‑21 and the Sentinel ICBM program as central catalysts for Northrop’s 2028+ earnings trajectory, with internal projections cited by Simply Wall St targeting about $47.5 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in earnings by 2028, implying roughly 5.5% annual revenue growth from today’s levels. [18]
If execution is strong and program funding remains intact, B‑21 could underpin decades of high‑margin work, but cost overruns or budget pressure would pose meaningful downside risk.
Project Talon: collaborative combat aircraft (drone wingman)
On December 4, 2025, Axios reported that Northrop unveiled “Project Talon”, an advanced autonomous drone designed as a robotic wingman for fighters like the F‑22 and F‑35. [19]
What we know so far:
- The demonstrator, developed with subsidiary Scaled Composites, is intended to be low‑cost and suitable for mass production. [20]
- It fits into the Pentagon’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) vision, where autonomous drones augment manned aircraft with additional sensors, weapons and decoy capabilities. [21]
While Project Talon is still early—only one unit reportedly exists—it signals that Northrop aims to compete aggressively in future CCA tenders, an area investors increasingly view as the next major aviation profit pool after fifth‑generation fighters.
Policy and sector backdrop: more defense spending, fewer ownership worries
NOC trades within a volatile but broadly supportive macro and policy environment.
Rising NATO and global defense budgets
A Washington Post analysis this week highlighted how European defense spending has surged, with Germany alone planning over $1 trillion in defense outlays in coming years and NATO members aligning around dramatically higher spending targets, in some narratives even referencing 5% of GDP. [22]
Although that article focused on German arms maker Rheinmetall, the broader message is bullish for large primes like Northrop:
- Sustained demand for munitions, air defense and armored systems,
- A remilitarising Europe seeking long‑term industrial partners, and
- A geopolitical climate in which aerospace and defense budgets are more likely to grow than shrink.
Northrop itself has seen international sales grow strongly in recent quarters, with some analyst commentaries citing double‑digit increases in overseas revenues as a bright spot in the investment thesis. [23]
U.S. government equity stakes: big primes spared
At the Reagan National Defense Forum, Boeing’s defense chief said President Donald Trump’s strategy of taking U.S. government equity stakes in critical industries is not aimed at large defense primes such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, RTX, or Northrop Grumman. [24]
According to his remarks:
- Equity stakes are expected to target smaller, financially constrained suppliers that might need federal help for capacity expansions.
- Big primes are expected to fund their own infrastructure upgrades, avoiding the overhang of forced government ownership that some investors feared. [25]
For NOC shareholders, that reduces the risk of shareholder dilution or governance complications from state equity injections, while still benefiting from a more resilient supply chain.
What Wall Street expects from NOC now
Analyst sentiment on NOC is broadly positive, though not euphoric, and price targets cluster in a mid‑teens to low‑20s upside band from current levels.
Consensus ratings and targets
Different platforms summarising Wall Street research show a fairly consistent picture:
- MarketBeat aggregates 20 analysts and labels NOC a “Moderate Buy”, with
- 0 Sells,
- 6 Holds,
- 12 Buys, and
- 2 Strong Buys.
The average 12‑month price target is $646.94, implying roughly 17.8% upside from a base price around $549. [26]
- Public.com shows 15 analysts with an overall “Buy” rating (no sells) and an average target near $642.73, similar to MarketBeat’s, again pointing to mid‑teens upside. [27]
- A separate MarketWatch snapshot lists an average target price of about $667.53 across 25 ratings, with an average recommendation of “Overweight.” [28]
- Simply Wall St’s narrative model estimates a “fair value” around $667.21, or about 21% above the current share price, assuming that management delivers the revenue and earnings ramp embedded in its 2028 forecast. [29]
Taken together, these suggest that fundamental analysts still see more upside than downside at today’s price, but the expected return is in the high single‑digit to low double‑digit annualised range, not a moonshot.
Diverging narratives: bulls vs. bears on Northrop Grumman
Under the surface, there’s a lively debate playing out between bullish fundamental investors and more cautious valuation/technical voices.
Bull case: wide moat, disciplined capital allocation, durable demand
A recent bullish thesis highlighted by InsiderMonkey, drawing on Quality Value Investing research, emphasises several strengths: [30]
- Northrop operates across Aeronautics, Defense, Mission and Space Systems, giving it a diversified portfolio of aircraft, missile defense, ISR and space platforms.
- The company enjoys a “wide economic moat,” supported by decades‑long relationships with the U.S. military, complex program know‑how and high switching costs.
- Over the last five years, revenue growth has been modest but net margins have remained near double‑digits, helped by disciplined execution. [31]
- Management has combined steady dividend growth with aggressive share buybacks, including over $4 billion in repurchases and accelerated buyback activity in 2024, which helped drive a more than 70% surge in EPS despite slower free‑cash‑flow growth. [32]
In this view, NOC is a classic “compounder”: not a high‑growth rocket ship, but a core defense franchise with stable demand, high barriers to entry, and shareholder‑friendly capital allocation.
Bear case: slowing organic growth, margin pressure and rich multiples
The bears, however, see more risk than reward at today’s valuation.
A StockStory piece titled “3 Reasons to Sell NOC” laid out several concerns: [33]
- Slow organic growth – Over the last two years, Northrop’s organic revenue has grown only about 3% per year, suggesting limited momentum in its core business.
- Shrinking operating margin – Operating margin has fallen by about 5.7 percentage points over five years to roughly 10.6%, raising questions about cost control and the payoff from heavy capital spending.
- Declining ROIC and full valuation – Return on invested capital has trended lower even as the stock trades around 19–20× forward earnings, indicating that a lot of good news may already be priced in. [34]
On top of that, Public.com’s “bears say” commentary notes a 42% year‑over‑year drop in free cash flow in a recent quarter and continued weakness in certain segments, such as Space Systems, which stirs questions about flagship programs like B‑21 and Sentinel if budgets tighten. [35]
Quant and technical watchers: cautious short‑term outlook
Quant‑driven services are even more blunt:
- Intellectia’s model highlights more bearish than bullish technical signals, a falling trend, and forecasts that NOC may underperform in the next several weeks, even though long‑run scenarios for 2026–2030 cluster around today’s price level. [36]
- StockTradersDaily frames NOC as a “liquidity pulse” stock for institutions, with no clear near‑term positioning signal and elevated downside risk until stronger support levels are re‑established. [37]
Together, these voices argue that timing matters: you might like NOC’s 5‑ to 10‑year story, but still worry about paying up in a soft technical tape.
Key risks and catalysts to watch
For anyone following Northrop Grumman from December 7, 2025 onward, several issues are likely to drive the next moves in the stock:
- B‑21 contract flow and production ramp
- New Air Force contracts or a formalized agreement to accelerate B‑21 production would likely be viewed positively, while delays, cost overruns or political pushback could hit sentiment. [38]
- Execution on large, fixed‑price programs
- Analysts repeatedly flag the risk of cost overruns across munitions, propulsion and space programs, given Northrop’s heavy capital spending in these areas. [39]
- Free cash flow and balance sheet
- With a debt‑to‑equity ratio near 0.95 and a meaningful decline in free cash flow in recent quarters, Northrop needs to prove that new investments translate into sustained cash generation, not just accounting earnings. [40]
- Defense budget path and international orders
- Rising NATO and Indo‑Pacific tensions currently favour defense primes, but any surprise U.S. budget cuts or big shifts in program priorities (for example, away from B‑21 or Sentinel) would be a clear negative. [41]
- Valuation vs. growth delivery
- With consensus price targets implying roughly 18–22% upside and a forward P/E around 20×, the market is assuming flawless execution and continued contract wins. If organic growth or margins disappoint, that multiple could compress. [42]
Bottom line: how NOC looks on December 7, 2025
As of December 7, 2025, Northrop Grumman stock sits at an interesting crossroads:
- Bullish side:
- Strong competitive position with a wide moat in U.S. and allied defense,
- New long‑term contracts in munitions and propulsion,
- Major structural programs like B‑21 and future CCA drones,
- Solid profitability, a well‑covered dividend, and an analyst consensus tilted toward “Buy/Moderate Buy” with mid‑teens upside. [43]
- Cautious side:
- Slower organic growth, margin compression and declining ROIC,
- Short‑term technical and quant signals that lean bearish,
- Free‑cash‑flow volatility and a valuation that already embeds a decent amount of optimism. [44]
For long‑horizon investors who believe U.S. and allied defense spending will stay elevated—and who accept the risks of large, fixed‑price programs—NOC still looks like a core defense holding with moderate upside.
For shorter‑term traders or those focused on pristine growth and cash‑flow trends, the message from technical and valuation screens is more restrained: there may be better entry points if current consolidation turns into a deeper pullback.
As always, this overview is informational only and not personalized investment advice. Before making any decision about Northrop Grumman stock, consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon and portfolio needs, and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial adviser.
References
1. investor.northropgrumman.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. finance.yahoo.com, 4. intellectia.ai, 5. intellectia.ai, 6. news.stocktradersdaily.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. seekingalpha.com, 10. markets.financialcontent.com, 11. investor.northropgrumman.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.govconwire.com, 14. simplywall.st, 15. simplywall.st, 16. www.northropgrumman.com, 17. www.defensenews.com, 18. simplywall.st, 19. www.axios.com, 20. www.axios.com, 21. www.airandspaceforces.com, 22. www.washingtonpost.com, 23. public.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. public.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. simplywall.st, 30. www.insidermonkey.com, 31. www.insidermonkey.com, 32. www.insidermonkey.com, 33. markets.financialcontent.com, 34. markets.financialcontent.com, 35. public.com, 36. intellectia.ai, 37. news.stocktradersdaily.com, 38. www.defensenews.com, 39. simplywall.st, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. www.washingtonpost.com, 42. www.marketbeat.com, 43. www.marketbeat.com, 44. markets.financialcontent.com
