Nu Holdings (NU) Stock Forecast: Q3 2025 Earnings, New Bank Licenses and Analyst Targets After a Sharp Pullback

Published: December 6, 2025

Key takeaways

Nu Holdings (NYSE: NU) shares have pulled back to around $16.70 after touching fresh 52‑week highs in the high‑$17 range, but remain up roughly 60–65% year to date. ^[1]
In Q3 2025, Nu delivered record revenue of $4.2 billion and net income of $783 million with 31% return on equity (ROE), while growing its customer base to 127 million across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. ^[2]
Nubank is adding a full banking license in Brazil in 2026 and has applied for a U.S. national bank charter, moves that could expand its opportunity but also increase regulatory scrutiny. ^[3]
Most Wall Street firms rate Nu a “Buy” or “Overweight”, with 12‑month price targets clustering between $17 and $19 and some as high as $22 – only modest upside from current levels. ^[4]
Fundamental bulls highlight rapid monetization of a huge customer base; skeptics point to premium valuation and rising credit risk as Nu leans further into mass‑market lending. ^[5]

Nu Holdings stock: hot 2025 rally, cold shower into December

As of Saturday, December 6, 2025, the most recent close for Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) is about $16.70, after the stock fell around 5.4% on Friday, December 5, trading in an intraday range of $16.60 to $17.73. ^[6]

The pullback comes just days after Nu marked fresh 52‑week highs near $17.8–$17.9, capping a surge that has left the shares up roughly 60–66% year to date and more than 40% over the past 12 months, depending on the data provider. ^[7]

Trading has been heavy: around 52 million shares changed hands on December 5, well above recent averages, and options data show elevated activity with thousands of contracts traded and a put/call ratio near 0.29 – more calls than puts, but interpreted by some as “bearish sentiment with increased volatility” after the drop. ^[8]

On a risk profile basis, TradingView pegs Nu’s beta at about 1.29 and recent volatility at 6.8%, putting it firmly in the “aggressive growth” rather than “sleepy bank stock” bucket. ^[9]

The question now is whether the combination of strong 2025 execution, new bank licenses and still‑bullish analyst forecasts is enough to support Nu’s premium valuation after such a run.

2025 so far: from growth story to earnings engine

Nu’s 2025 financials tell a clear story: rapid scaling with rising profitability.

Q1 2025: strong start, some margin pressure

For Q1 2025, Nu reported: ^[10]

Customers: 118.6 million (adding 4.3 million in the quarter)
Revenue: $3.2 billion, up about 40% year-on-year on an FX‑neutral basis
Net income: $557 million, up 74% YoY FX‑neutral, with 27% ROE
ARPAC (average revenue per active customer): $11.2, up 17% YoY FX‑neutral
Cost to serve per active customer: $0.70
Deposits: $31.6 billion, up 48% YoY FX‑neutral
Credit portfolio: $24.1 billion

Asset quality metrics in Brazil were mixed: 15‑90 day non‑performing loans (NPLs) rose to 4.7%, while 90+ day NPLs fell to 6.5%, which management framed as consistent with seasonality and prior early-stage delinquency trends. ^[11]

Net interest margin (NIM) remained robust at 17.5%, but both Reuters and the company flagged pressure from higher Brazilian rates and investments in Mexico and Colombia, which weighed slightly on risk‑adjusted margins. ^[12]

Q2 2025: scaling into 120M+ customers

By Q2 2025, Nu had: ^[13]

Customers: 122.7 million (up 4.1 million in the quarter)
Revenue: $3.7 billion, up about 40% YoY FX‑neutral
Net income: $637 million, up 42% YoY FX‑neutral
ARPAC: $12.2, its first time above $12
Cost to serve per active customer: $0.80
Deposits: $36.6 billion, up 41% YoY FX‑neutral
Credit portfolio: $27.3 billion

The 15–90 day NPL ratio improved to 4.4%, while 90+ day NPLs ticked up to 6.6%, again broadly inline with expectations. Risk‑adjusted NIM rose to 9.2%, and headline NIM expanded to 17.7%, underscoring that Nu was still widening its spread despite rapid loan and deposit growth. ^[14]

A live earnings blog at 24/7 Wall St. highlighted that investors initially cheered the numbers, sending shares up over 7–8% after hours on earnings day, driven by continued operating leverage and rising monetization of its base. ^[15]

Q3 2025: record revenue, record profit, record ROE

The Q3 2025 report, released on November 13, is the backbone of today’s bullish narrative. Nu reported: ^[16]

Customers: 127.0 million (4.3 million net adds in the quarter)
Active customers: 105.9 million
ARPAC: $13.4, up ~20% YoY FX‑neutral
Cost to serve: $0.90 per active customer
Revenue: $4.17 billion (about 39–42% YoY growth, depending on FX basis)
Gross profit: $1.81 billion, margin ~43–44%
Net income: $782.7 million, up ~39% YoY FX‑neutral
Adjusted net income: $829 million
Annualized ROE:31%
Deposits: $38.8 billion, up ~34–37% YoY FX‑neutral
Total credit portfolio: $30.4 billion, up ~42–45% YoY FX‑neutral
Risk‑adjusted NIM: 9.9%
Headline NIM: 17.3%

Asset quality in Brazil looked relatively stable: 15–90 day NPLs fell to 4.2%, while 90+ NPLs rose slightly to 6.8%, largely in line with historical seasonal patterns and prior vintages. ^[17]

In other words, across the first three quarters of 2025 Nu has generated over $11 billion in revenue and nearly $2 billion in net income, while pushing ARPAC higher and keeping cost‑to‑serve below $1. That’s the kind of operating leverage that makes fintech and banking analysts lean forward in their chairs.

Strategic catalysts: Brazil banking license and U.S. charter

Two regulatory moves announced in the second half of 2025 have become central to Nu’s long‑term narrative.

Brazil: bringing a full bank license inside the Nubank group

On December 3, 2025, Nu filed a Form 6‑K stating that Nubank intends to obtain a banking license in Brazil in 2026. ^[18]

Key points from the filing and accompanying press release:

The new license is meant to comply with “Joint Resolution No. 17” from Brazil’s Central Bank and National Monetary Council, which standardizes how regulated institutions use brand names.
Nubank will add a banking entity to its existing group, but the company stresses that the Nubank brand, visual identity and daily customer experience will remain unchanged. ^[19]
Management says the step will not materially change capital or liquidity requirements, and that Nubank already holds all licenses needed to run its current products (payment institution, credit/financing company and securities brokerage). ^[20]
Nubank now counts over 110 million customers in Brazil alone, having brought roughly 28 million people into the formal financial system since its founding. ^[21]

The market’s read so far: this is more about regulatory housekeeping and optionality than about a business model pivot. Still, a full bank license potentially opens deeper funding options and product flexibility in the long run.

United States: OCC national bank charter application

Back on September 30, 2025, Nubank announced it had applied for a U.S. national bank charter with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). ^[22]

Highlights:

The charter is positioned as a “preparatory stage” for future global expansion, not an immediate revenue engine.
It would allow Nu to offer deposit accounts, credit cards, lending and digital asset custody in the U.S., subject to regulatory approval. ^[23]
Co‑founder Cristina Junqueira has relocated to the U.S. to head the new business, with a heavyweight board that includes Roberto Campos Neto, former president of Brazil’s central bank, and Brian Brooks, former Acting U.S. Comptroller of the Currency. ^[24]

Combined with a full banking license in Mexico, granted earlier in 2025 at Nu Mexico, the company is now methodically lining up full‑stack banking capabilities in all of its major geographies. ^[25]

For bulls, these moves expand Nu’s addressable market and deepen its regulatory moat. For bears, they increase regulatory complexity and potential capital demands just as credit risk in mass‑market lending is rising.

Wall Street’s verdict: bullish, but not unanimously

Analysts have been busy updating models in the wake of Q3 and the Brazilian banking‑license news.

Consensus ratings and targets

Different aggregators show slight variations, but the overall picture is similar:

MarketBeat tracks 12 equity analysts covering Nu, with 9 “Buy” and 3 “Hold” ratings and a consensus recommendation of “Moderate Buy”. The average 12‑month price target sits around $17.71, implying about 6% upside from recent levels. ^[26]
StockAnalysis.com shows 9 covering analysts, also with a “Buy” consensus and an average price target of $17.60, within a range of $16 to $19, corresponding to roughly 5.4% upside. Recent target hikes include UBS (from $16 to $18) and KeyBanc (from $15 to $19). ^[27]
Benzinga’s tally of 16 analysts gives a broader average target of $15.51, pulled down by older, lower estimates, but notes the latest move from UBS on December 4, raising its target to $18.40 while maintaining a neutral stance. ^[28]
MarketWatch lists 19 ratings, with an average recommendation of “Overweight” and an average target price of $18.42, a bit higher than other platforms. ^[29]
A recent Simply Wall St narrative points to Grupo Santander upgrading Nu to “Outperform” with a $22 price target, citing confidence in Nu’s Brazilian and Mexican growth momentum. The same piece models Nu reaching $33 billion in revenue and $6.1 billion in earnings by 2028, which would require roughly 78% annual revenue growth from current levels. ^[30]

Taken together, Street targets cluster in the high‑teens, only slightly above where the stock trades today, with a few high‑conviction outliers in the low‑20s.

Valuation: premium to banks, divided opinions among quants

Zacks, in a recent piece syndicated via Nasdaq, emphasizes Nu’s “revenue durability” and notes that the stock: ^[31]

Has gained about 47% over the past year, roughly matching or slightly beating its industry peers.
Trades at a forward P/E near 21.5×, roughly double the ~10.7× multiple of the broader foreign‑banks group.
Holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), with earnings estimates for 2025 trending higher over the past month.

More skeptical models exist too. Another Simply Wall St “Excess Returns” valuation pegs Nu’s intrinsic value at around $10.15 per share, calling the stock overvalued by ~56% at current prices and suggesting better value might exist elsewhere in their coverage universe. ^[32]

The spread between a $10 “fair value” from one framework and $22 price targets from bullish analysts tells you all you need to know: valuation is contentious and heavily dependent on how long Nu can sustain hyper‑growth without a blow‑up in credit losses or regulatory capital demands.

Trading, flows and sentiment: volatility around new highs

Recent trading in Nu shares has been lively:

On December 5, the stock fell about 5.4%, with over 52 million shares traded – a notable spike vs prior days in the 19–34 million range. ^[33]
A trading‑focused note at StocksToTrade described the action as “market movement mystery”, flagging a sharp intraday drop despite no new company‑specific negative catalyst and highlighting stretched valuation metrics such as a high price‑to‑sales ratio. ^[34]
Options data summarized by GuruFocus show 4,880 contracts traded recently, with a put/call ratio of 0.29, which the service framed as bearish sentiment amid rising volatility, even though calls outnumber puts. ^[35]

Institutional flows lean positive. A series of recent filings compiled by MarketBeat show large investors – including Norges Bank, New York State Common Retirement Fund, Fisher Asset Management and others – taking or adding to positions worth tens to hundreds of millions of dollars in the second half of 2025, even as some funds trim or rotate. ^[36]

One potential overhang: in August, CEO David Vélez sold 33 million Class A shares, about 3.5% of his personal stake and roughly 0.7% of Nu’s total share count, an event the company described as personal asset planning. ^[37] The sale hasn’t derailed the stock’s uptrend, but it’s on the radar of governance‑focused investors.

Bull vs bear case: what investors are debating right now

Bullish case

Supporters of Nu’s current valuation tend to focus on a few core arguments:

Scale plus engagement: With 127 million customers and activity rates above 83%, Nu is already one of the largest digital banking platforms on the planet, particularly dominant in Brazil where it serves over 60% of the adult population. ^[38]
Monetization runway: ARPAC has climbed from $11.2 in Q1 to $13.4 in Q3, while cost to serve remains below $1 – a powerful dynamic as cross‑selling deepens. ^[39]
Profitability at scale: ROE in the high‑20s to low‑30s, risk‑adjusted NIM near 10%, and nearly $2 billion in nine‑month net income put Nu in rarefied air among high‑growth fintechs. ^[40]
Regulatory moat and geographic expansion: The Brazil banking license, Mexican bank license and U.S. charter application build a multi‑jurisdiction regulatory infrastructure that could deter would‑be competitors and support a future global expansion beyond Latin America. ^[41]

These are the ingredients behind analyst pieces with titles like “3 Reasons to Buy Nu Stock Like There’s No Tomorrow” or “Nu Holdings: 30%+ Compounded Returns Through 2030 Appear Likely,” as seen in the recent lineup of Motley Fool and Seeking Alpha coverage. ^[42]

Bearish case

Skeptics are not short on points either:

Rich valuation vs banks: Whether you look at Zacks’ ~21.5× forward P/E or trailing multiples above 30×, Nu trades at a substantial premium to traditional banks that often sit around 10× earnings – even as Nu’s credit portfolio increasingly resembles a scaled consumer finance book. ^[43]
Credit risk creeping higher: While early‑stage NPLs have eased from the Q1 peak, 90+‑day delinquencies in Brazil have climbed to 6.8%, and the company has aggressively grown unsecured and payroll lending. If macro conditions in Brazil or Mexico worsen, losses could normalize at levels not fully baked into today’s models. ^[44]
Regulatory load: Bank‑license upgrades in Brazil and the U.S. charter effort increase regulatory oversight and complexity. Management says capital and liquidity needs won’t change materially in Brazil, but skepticism lingers around how much additional buffer regulators may eventually demand. ^[45]
Quant models flashing “overvalued”: Frameworks like Simply Wall St’s Excess Returns model call Nu overvalued by more than 50%, suggesting that even modest disappointments on growth or credit quality could compress the multiple. ^[46]

Layer on top of this a high‑beta share price, heavy retail and options participation, and ongoing insider and institutional repositioning, and you get precisely the kind of volatile battleground stock Nu has become in late 2025.

What to watch next for Nu Holdings stock

Heading into 2026, a few items will likely dominate Nu‑related headlines and models:

Q4 2025 and full‑year guidance: Whether Nu can maintain 30–40%+ revenue growth while keeping ROE north of 25% and NPLs roughly stable will heavily influence whether the market is comfortable with high‑teens price targets – or pushes them higher. ^[47]
Brazilian credit performance: Investors will scrutinize any change in delinquency trends in Brazil’s mass‑market segments, particularly if unemployment or rates move unfavorably.
Regulatory milestones: Progress (or delays) on the Brazil banking license, Mexican bank operations, and U.S. charter will shape the long‑term growth narrative and capital requirements. ^[48]
Valuation vs execution: With shares already reflecting a lot of optimism, any gap between promised and delivered growth – in ARPAC, active customers, or profitability – could lead to outsized moves in either direction, given Nu’s volatility profile. ^[49]

For now, Nu Holdings sits where many great growth stories eventually end up: priced for excellence, executing well, and living under a microscope. Whether the next 12–24 months belong to the bulls or the bears will depend less on the headlines and more on how consistently Nu can turn its enormous user base into durable, low‑loss earnings.